巴黎——一位年紀輕輕尚未上任的政客竟在視頻中公然譴責全球最大國家的首腦，而且對方是年紀幾乎大自己一倍，言語之間還很不客氣。這條視頻迅速火遍全球。

今年3月這條視頻發布在YouTube上，正競選法國總統的埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍直接對話“美國從事氣候變化的研究者、企業家和工程師們”，表示他堅決反對唐納德?特朗普對氣候變化的態度。馬克龍在視頻中承諾，如果他成功當選法國總統，將對環境研究投入大筆資金，而且將敞開資源歡迎感興趣的美國專業人士去法國繼續工作，那里環境更友好，資助也更多。

“歡迎來法國，”他用流利的英語表示。“非常歡迎。我們希望有更多人研究氣候變化、能源、可再生能源和新科技等。”

目前尚無證據表明有很多美國企業家、工程師和氣候科學家搬離美國前往法國。但三個月后，年僅39歲的馬克龍已成自拿破侖以來法國最年輕總統，他說的話自然也越發重要。從過去十天來看，歐盟與美國之間的裂痕已逐漸清晰。

歐洲時間上周四晚，隨著特朗普宣布美國將退出巴黎協議，也即2015年簽訂的巴黎氣候變化協議，雙方的裂痕達到頂峰。世界上幾乎所有國家——除了尼加拉瓜和敘利亞，全都簽署了巴黎協議，承諾削減碳排放。

就在特朗普宣布退出巴黎協議幾分鐘后，馬克龍總統給特朗普打了一通5分鐘的電話，告訴他“巴黎協定里任何條款都不能修改，”周四晚馬克龍一位新聞發言人在短信中告訴《財富》雜志。馬克龍還表示，“美國跟法國可以繼續合作，但氣候問題沒得談。”

據歐洲政界觀察家介紹，其實早在特朗普表態兩周前，作為美國總統第一次造訪歐洲時，歐洲領導人對待美國的態度就已發生變化。

跨大西洋糾紛

歐洲政界觀察家表示，當時歐洲領袖跟美國高層官員的討論沒法順利進行。雙方分歧不只在氣候變化方面，諸如軍費、多邊貿易協定和移民等領域的長期協議也都有問題。就在上周，趾高氣昂的特朗普還在布魯塞爾指責北約首腦在軍事合作上投入不夠，去年競選時他還曾表示以為與歐洲的軍事結盟已經“散了”。沒過幾天，G7峰會在意大利西西里島舉行，特朗普就宣布拒絕支持全球氣候協議，還公然批評德國對美國貿易順差太高，“非常惡劣”。

歐美之間的分歧可不只導致政界震動，對大西洋兩岸的商業合作也會造成深遠的影響。

即便特朗普飛回國回白宮，事情的余波也仍在歐洲發酵。擁有5億龐大人口的歐洲是全球最大的市場，如今美國領袖不在友好，戰略伙伴關系可能重新調整。上周日德國總理默克爾在巴伐利亞告訴人們，“從某種程度上說可以完全依賴旁人的時代已經結束”，過去幾十年跟美國之間堅定的伙伴關系出現巨大轉折。馬克龍發言人表示，周四晚特朗普宣布退出氣候協定后，默克爾跟馬克龍迅速通了電話，“確認了將繼續遵守巴黎協定，并在國際上維護協定的決心。”

“我們是認真的，”常駐布魯塞爾的歐洲政策研究中心高級研究員雅克?佩克曼斯表示。“現在我們只能靠自己，因為他（特朗普）根本靠不住，”周四他告訴《財富》。“之前我們依賴的合作如今打破了。”

對商業界來說，合作關系破裂可能導致現實影響，周五和周六在布魯塞爾和巴黎舉行的不少活動中此事都會成為主要話題。

歐洲看向東方

布魯塞爾舉辦的一場歐盟-中國的峰會上，歐盟28個成員國首腦與中國總理李克強達成一致，將促進簽署貿易協定，在交通和能源等領域開展新技術合作。雙方還計劃通過歐洲與中國城市戰略合作，共同緩解全球氣候變化。

歐盟和中方官員都相信，雙方加強合作不僅有利于環保，也能促進商業發展，這與特朗普周四的態度形成鮮明對比，特朗普指稱巴黎氣候協議允許印度等新興國家使用低價煤卻禁止美國使用，“對美國極不公平”。

巴黎協定可能促進歐洲與中國之間巨大的貿易交流。近年來雙方商業合作激增；歐盟官方數據顯示，每日雙邊貿易額已達14億歐元（約合15.7億美元）。周四還發布了一份歐盟與中國官方為周五峰會擬定的聯合聲明，其中寫道“解決氣候變化并改革能源系統可以極大促進就業、增加投資機會并推動經濟增長。”

如今歐盟與中國和合作加速前進，盡管周四特朗普宣布將“就新協議開展談判”，而且新協議會“遠比巴黎協議好”。

佩克曼斯表示上周在上海見了很多商界領導，人人都對巴黎氣候協議后續的經濟合作非常有興趣。他們認為協定涉及全球，意味著巨大的機會，尤其在太陽能面板制造和出口等領域，如今在中國這一行業已經價值數百億美元。

協議的藝術

中國目前是全世界最大的污染國，占了碳排放量約20%。諷刺的是，美國與歐洲關系緊張卻將中國推向領導之位，填補特朗普留下的空白。“歐盟跟中國正推廣排除美國的多邊主義理念，”佩克曼斯表示，又補充說歐美關系惡化讓他始料未及。“我都不敢相信這是真的，”他說。

不過特朗普歐洲之行后，想借機跟歐盟領導人加強聯系的大國并非只有中國。印度也一樣：印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪周三就在德國跟默克爾商討了貿易協定，隨后在共同出席的發布會上一直宣揚兩國友好，“我們兩國簡直是絕配。”

周六輪到馬克龍接待莫迪，午宴安排在華麗的愛麗舍宮。一周前馬克龍剛在更豪華的凡爾賽宮招待了俄羅斯總統普京一頓工作午宴。剛剛上任三周，馬克龍已經迅速展現強大的外交能力，在歐盟積極跟新興市場打造新型合作關系的當下，這一能力可能相當重要。

印度是個關鍵市場，聯合國預計十年內印度將取代中國成為全世界人口最多的國家。過去印度軍方一直跟俄羅斯國防承包商合作，法國正爭取分一杯羹。在談的項目中包括出售六艘法國DCNS集團制造的鮋魚級潛艇。而且5月15日馬克龍在愛麗舍宮的小型儀式上宣誓時，達索飛機制造公司宣布正與印度商談出售16架“陣風”戰斗機，全由法國制造。去年該公司已經與印度簽署協議出售36架“陣風”戰斗機，涉及金額達90億美元。“印度的需求巨大，”達索公司首席執行官埃里克?特拉皮耶在簽約前表示。

周六的午宴是馬克龍跟印度領導人第一次會見，他肯定也會談到最關注的問題：氣候變化。馬克龍是2015年12月在巴黎簽訂的全球氣候協議堅定支持者，所以如果莫迪能承諾控制碳排放很關鍵，尤其趕上美國完全不靠譜。3月7日馬克龍贏得選舉后，莫迪立刻發推特稱“非常期待與馬克龍密切合作”

現在是莫迪踐行承諾的時候了。雖然莫迪曾允諾未來十年將大力改善太陽能基礎設施建設，但印度仍是全世界最大的煤炭消費國，馬克龍很可能會明確提出希望莫迪說到做到。如果莫迪食言，沒準馬克龍又會在YouTube上發段視頻，邀請印度的工程師和企業家拋家棄國搬到法國去。(財富中文網)

譯者：Pessy

審稿：夏林

PARIS—The tone could hardly have been more blunt: A young, untested politician upbraiding the leader of the world's biggest economy, nearly twice his age, in a video message that zipped across the world.

Published to YouTube last March, Emmanuel Macron, then vying to be the President of France, spoke directly to "American researchers, entrepreneurs, engineers working on climate change," telling them that he stood in stark opposition to President Donald Trump over a crucial issue: climate change. If he won France's presidential election, Macron promised them, he would pour money into environmental research and throw open the country's resources to Americans looking for friendlier terrain and more funding for their work.

"Please come to France," he told them in fluent English. "You're welcome. We want people working on climate change, energy, renewables, and new technologies."

So far, there is no sign that numbers of American entrepreneurs, engineers, and climate scientists are upping stakes and moving to France. But three months on, the video message from 39-year-old President Macron—now the youngest French leader since Napoleon—sounds more relevant than ever, offering a foretaste of the deep divisions between the European Union and the U.S. that surged to the surface in the last 10 days.

Those sentiments reached a pinnacle on Thursday night (Europe time) with Trump's announcement he would pull the U.S. out of the Paris accord, also known as the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, which virtually every country—barring Nicaragua and Syria—has signed, committing themselves to cutting carbon emissions.

Within minutes of Trump's withdrawal from the Paris accord, President Macron called Trump, telling him in a five-minute call "that nothing was renegotiable in the Paris accord," a Macron spokesman told Fortune in a text message late Thursday night. "The U.S. and France will continue working together, but not on the subject of climate."

The turning point for European leaders, say political observers on the continent, unfolded two weeks before Thursday's Rose Garden announcement, during Trump's first trip to the continent as President.

Transatlantic tiffs

There, E.U. leaders appeared to hit a brick wall in their talks with him and top U.S. officials, according to European political observers. The cleavage goes far beyond climate change. Issues at stake include long-standing agreements over military spending, multilateral trade deals, and immigration. In Europe last month, a defiant Trump excoriated NATO leaders in Brussels for not spending enough on the military alliance, which he had deemed "obsolete" during his presidential campaign last year. Days later, at the G-7 summit in Sicily, Trump refused to back the global climate accord and lashed out at Germany for its "very bad" trade surplus with the U.S.

The tensions could have far-reaching effects on political relationships as well as business opportunities on both sides of the Atlantic.

Even as Trump flew home and settled back into the White House, the aftertaste has lingered in Europe. The E.U.—the world's biggest market, with 500 million people—may realign its relationships without a friendly U.S. leader. Last Sunday German Chancellor Angela Merkel told an audience in Bavaria that "the times when we could completely rely on others are to an extent over"—a dramatic shift from decades of an unquestioned bond with the U.S. According to a Macron spokesman, Merkel and Macron spoke by phone Thursday night, shortly after Trump's withdrawal from the climate deal, "confirming their common engagement and resolve to put in place the Paris accord and defend it on the international scene."

"This is serious for us," says Jacques Pelkmans, senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "We will now have to take care of ourselves, because he [Trump] is impossible to deal with," he told Fortune on Thursday. "It breaks a bond we depend on a lot."

For businesses, the fraught relationship could have real-life consequences, some of which will come into much sharper focus on Friday and Saturday during events in Brussels and Paris.

Europe looks east

At a major E.U.-China summit in Brussels, the bloc's 28 leaders and China's president Li Keqiang are set to agree on boosting trade deals and cooperation on new technologies in sectors such as transportation and power. They also plan to work together on slowing global climate change through tactics including strategic collaboration between European and Chinese cities.

E.U. and Chinese officials believe the pact is good not only for the environment but for business, too—a striking contrast to Trump's statement on Thursday that the Paris climate accord was "very unfair at the highest level to the United States" by allowing emerging countries like India to continue using cheap coal as its use is restricted in the U.S.

The Paris accord offers the prospects of huge new trade to Europe and China. Business ties between the partners have skyrocketed in recent years; bilateral trade is now worth about €1.4 billion (or about $1.57 billion) per day, according to the E.U.'s official statistics. An early version of a joint statement drafted by E.U. and Chinese officials for Friday's summit in Brussels, released on Thursday, says that "tackling climate change and reforming our energy systems are significant drivers of job creation, investment opportunities, and economic growth."

That process appears to be galloping forward, despite Trump's announcement on Thursday that he wanted to "negotiate a new deal," which will be "much better than the Paris accord."

Pelkmans says he met business leaders in Shanghai last week and was struck by their keen interest in making economic deals off the Paris climate agreement. The leaders see its global targets as prized opportunities for businesses like solar-panel manufacturing and exports—an industry now worth tens of billions of dollars to China.

The art of the deal

Ironically, the tensions between the U.S. and Europe positions China—the world's biggest polluter, accounting for about 20% of all carbon emissions—to fill the leadership position on climate change left by Trump. "The E.U. and China now preach multinationalism without the U.S.," Pelkmans says, adding that he is amazed at the downturn in relationships with the U.S. "I cannot believe this has happened," he says.

China is not the only big economic power eyeing a golden moment to strengthen their relationships with E.U. leaders in the wake of Trump's trip to Europe. So too is India: In Germany on Wednesday, India prime minister Narendra Modi discussed trade deals with Merkel, gushing to her in a joint press conference, "We are made for each other."

On Saturday, it will be Macron's turn to host Modi, with a lunch planned in the ornate Elysée Palace. The meal comes just one week after Macron hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a working lunch in the even more sumptuous Palace of Versailles. Just three weeks since he was inaugurated, President Macron is rapidly emerging as a masterful diplomat, that could perhaps prove crucial as the E.U. attempted to forge new relationships with emerging markets.

One key market is India, which the U.N. estimates could overtake China as the world's most populous country within the next decade. France is pushing for a slice of India's military business, which has traditionally gone to Russian defense contractors. That includes a deal to sell India six Scorpene submarines, built by France's DCNS Group. And on May 15—just as Macron was inaugurated in a small ceremony in the Elysée—Dassault Aviation revealed it was in talks with India to sell about 16 Rafale fighter jets, all French-built. That would add to the company's huge $9 billion deal it signed last year to sell India 36 Rafale jets. "India's requirements are enormous," Dassault CEO Eric Trappier said in the wake of the announcement.

When Macron meets Modi for lunch on Saturday for his first meeting with the Indian leader, he will also certainly zoom in an issue close to his heart: climate change. For Macron, a fierce defender of the global climate deal inked in the French capital in December 2015, Modi's commitment to reining in carbon emissions is crucial—especially now that the U.S. has proved an unreliable partner on the issue. Immediately after Macron's victory on March 7, Modi tweeted that he "looked forward to working closely" with him.

Now is Modi's moment to make good on that. India is one of the world's biggest consumers of coal, and although the prime minister has vowed to ramp up the country's solar power infrastructure within the next decade, Macron will likely make it clear he expects Modi to stick to his word. If not, he could find Macron posting another YouTube video, inviting India's engineers and entrepreneurs to ditch their country and move to France.