特斯拉（Tesla）的首席執(zhí)行官伊隆?馬斯克大膽預(yù)言，他市值530億美元的公司未來將會擁有堪比蘋果（Apple）的估值。后者目前的市值為8,000億美元，是全球最具價值的公司。他的理由是特斯拉將用“機器生產(chǎn)機器”的自動化技術(shù)顛覆制造業(yè)。盡管這看起來還只是空中樓閣，不過特斯拉的確有理由變成下一個蘋果。

特斯拉聲稱他們可以開發(fā)完全自動化的生產(chǎn)過程，其革命性堪比亨利?福特的連續(xù)裝配線。1913年，福特完全改變了制造流程，把Model T的裝配過程拆分成了84個不同的步驟，汽車在一條輸送帶上就可以完成組裝。它給制造業(yè)帶來了革命性的影響，將一輛汽車的裝配時間從12小時縮減到90分鐘。借此，公司把Model T的成本從850美元減少到30美元，而且每24秒就能制造一輛車。截至1927年，福特已經(jīng)賣出了1,500萬輛Model T，連續(xù)裝配線也成為了汽車制造業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)，一直至今。盡管借助機器人的自動化作業(yè)極大增加了汽車制造業(yè)的效率，但最后的裝配流程仍然是由人工完成的。

特斯拉打算利用公司先進的軟件和人工智能技術(shù)，結(jié)合他們2016年11月收購Grohmann Automation獲得的先進自動化制造能力，建立一家高產(chǎn)量且制造成本大大降低的汽車工廠。特斯拉在博客上談到了這個有趣的設(shè)想：“工廠本身比產(chǎn)品更像是產(chǎn)品。”特斯拉相信，他們可以極大增加產(chǎn)量，減少制造的勞動力成本，從而引領(lǐng)下一次制造業(yè)革命。

那么為什么其他汽車廠商不去效仿并超越特斯拉呢？首先，他們的產(chǎn)品和工廠都受到了歷史原因的拖累。特斯拉的電動汽車制造難度遠遠低于內(nèi)燃機汽車。他們的Model S只有不到20個活動部件，以內(nèi)燃機為引擎的汽車則有將近1,500個。這就意味著特斯拉汽車的組裝更簡單，聯(lián)系的供應(yīng)商更少，零部件的庫存負擔(dān)也更輕。此外，特斯拉不需要應(yīng)付工人工會，復(fù)雜的供應(yīng)鏈，或留存下來的經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)。沒有了這些，特斯拉就不必擔(dān)心工人、供應(yīng)商和經(jīng)銷商拖后腿，專心于顛覆性創(chuàng)新。

為了有朝一日達到蘋果的規(guī)模，特斯拉需要在制造上比“亨利?福特”更加高超。還需要像“史蒂夫?喬布斯”一樣利用營銷，讓產(chǎn)品在國際上擁有巨大的需求。蘋果的iPhone是國際性產(chǎn)品，在紐約、孟買、北京等地方都能大賣，只需要一點增量投資。然而，特斯拉需要從零開始去建立充電的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)，這是一個相當(dāng)耗資和耗時的過程。他們要一個國家一個國家地去建設(shè)。中國是重要的海外市場，斯堪的納維亞半島也是。他們還計劃在印度推出Model 3。

特斯拉雄心勃勃的道路上會有很多阻礙。懷疑者指出，特斯拉在追求遠大理想的過程中可能會耗盡資金：他們需要投資的領(lǐng)域包括生產(chǎn)設(shè)備、電池制造、充電設(shè)施和經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)，想要達到他們需求的規(guī)模，投資規(guī)模就會過于巨大，收回成本的時間也漫漫無期。特斯拉收購Grohmann也不太順利，后者的創(chuàng)始人和前任首席執(zhí)行官克勞斯?格羅曼上個月與馬斯克意見相左，之后離開了公司。

此外，在傳統(tǒng)汽車廠商之外，特斯拉還有其他競爭對手。谷歌（Google）、優(yōu)步（Uber）和中國的百度（Baidu）等科技公司都在研發(fā)無人駕駛技術(shù)。然而，這些競爭者也可能成為特斯拉的客戶，因為相對于自動化生產(chǎn)，他們對技術(shù)和服務(wù)更感興趣。

特斯拉能否在國際規(guī)模和盈利能力上達到蘋果的高度，只有時間可以告訴我們答案，不過我們有三個理由保持樂觀。首先，特斯拉先進的自動化生產(chǎn)可能讓公司的暢銷車型如Model 3產(chǎn)生巨大的利潤——蘋果iPhone的成功公式就是大需求+高利潤。其次，特斯拉的目標(biāo)很單純，個人魅力出眾的創(chuàng)始人只想贏得全球統(tǒng)治地位——就像亞馬遜（Amazon）的杰夫?貝佐斯和蘋果的史蒂夫?喬布斯一樣。在企業(yè)家和管理者的競爭中，企業(yè)家往往會是贏家。

最后，歷史顯示，顛覆的力量往往不會來自在位者。特斯拉在顛覆工廠生產(chǎn)的方式——這是現(xiàn)有的汽車廠商很難去實現(xiàn)的。如果特斯拉可以徹底改造汽車，改造汽車工廠，他們就有很大的機會成為下一個蘋果。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者莫漢比爾?紹尼是美國西北大學(xué)（Northwestern University）凱洛格商學(xué)院（Kellogg School of Management）麥考密克講壇基金會（McCormick Tribune Foundation）的技術(shù)教授。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Tesla (tsla) CEO Elon Musk's bold prediction that his $53 billion company could one day be as valuable as Apple(aapl), the most valuable company in the world with an $800 billion market cap, is based on his logic that Tesla will disrupt manufacturing with automation by going after the “machine that makes the machine.” While it may seem just pie in the sky, there is a case for Tesla to become the next Apple.

Tesla is betting that it can create a fully automated manufacturing process that will be as revolutionary as Henry Ford’s continuous assembly line. Ford revolutionized manufacturing in 1913 by creating a process that broke the assembly of the Ford Model T into 84 distinct steps as the car moved down the line on a conveyer belt. The process revolutionized production and dropped the assembly time for a single vehicle from 12 hours to 90 minutes. Ford was able to reduce the cost of the Model T from $850 to $30 and produce a car every 24 seconds. Ford ended up selling 15 million Model T cars by 1927, and the continuous assembly line remains the foundation of automobile manufacturing to this day. Although automation with robots has dramatically improved the efficiency of automotive manufacturing, the final assembly is still a manual process.

Tesla aims to combine its capabilities in advanced software and artificial intelligence (AI) with advanced automated manufacturing capabilities it acquired in November 2016 by buying Grohmann Automation to create a factory that will produce very high volumes at much lower costs than today’s auto factories. A fascinating insight from Tesla’s blog: The “factory becomes more of a product than the product itself.” Tesla believes that it can usher in the next manufacturing revolution by dramatically increasing production volumes and reducing labor costs in manufacturing.

So why won’t other auto manufacturers follow suit and overtake Tesla? First, their products, as well as their factories, are bogged down by legacy. Tesla’s electric cars are significantly easier to manufacture than internal combustion (IC) vehicles. Tesla’s Model S has fewer than 20 moving parts, compared with almost 1,500 moving parts in an IC-engine car. This means that there are fewer steps in the assembly process, fewer suppliers to deal with, and lower inventory of components and parts. Further, Tesla doesn’t have to deal with a unionized workforce, a complex supply chain, or a legacy dealer network. Free from this legacy, Tesla can embrace disruptive innovation without worrying about the backlash from workers, suppliers, and dealers.

To become as big as Apple one day, Tesla will need more than the “Henry Ford” approach to manufacturing. It will also need the “Steve Jobs” approach to marketing by creating a vast global appetite for its products. The Apple iPhone is a global product that can be sold from New York to Mumbai to Beijing with very little incremental investment. However, Tesla’s cars require the creation of infrastructure for charging and a distribution network from scratch—a very expensive and time-consuming process. Tesla will need to build out its charging network and distribution reach, country by country. China is an important overseas market for Tesla, as is Scandinavia; it also has a rollout plan for India with its Model 3.

There are many bumps in the road in Tesla’s ambitious journey. Skeptics point out that Tesla may run out of cash in the pursuit of its lofty ambitions: The investments that Tesla will need to make in manufacturing, battery production, charging infrastructure, and distribution networks will be too large and will take too long to pay off for Tesla to reach the scale that it needs. Tesla’s acquisition of Grohmann also hit a bump when the founder and former CEO Klaus Grohmann exited the company last month after a disagreement with Musk.

Tesla isn’t without competitors, either, beyond the traditional automakers. Technology companies such as Google(goog, +0.17%), Uber, and Baidu of China are all involved in autonomous driving technology. However, these competitors can potentially also become customers for Tesla, as they’re more interested in technology and services than automotive manufacturing.

While only time will tell if Tesla can reach the global scale and profitability of Apple, there are three reasons to be optimistic. First, Tesla’s advanced automated manufacturing may allow it to reduce costs to the point that its mass-market models, such as the Model 3, can be highly profitable—a combination of high demand and high profits that was the formula for the Apple iPhone. Second, Tesla has the purity of purpose and a charismatic founder intent on global domination—just as Jeff Bezos has done at Amazon(amzn, +1.45%) and Steve Jobs did at Apple. In a race between entrepreneurs and managers, entrepreneurs usually win.

Finally, history suggests that disruption rarely comes from incumbents. Tesla is disrupting the product as well as the factory that makes the product—something that incumbent automakers will find very difficult to do. If Tesla can reinvent the car and also reinvent the car factory, it stands a good chance of becoming the next Apple.

Mohanbir Sawhney is the McCormick Tribune Foundation professor of technology at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.