歐洲終于可以松一口氣了。

39歲的前投資銀行家埃曼努爾·馬克龍正式當選為未來五年的法國總統(tǒng)。馬克龍曾在羅斯柴爾德銀行（Rothschild）任職，后短時間擔任過弗朗索瓦·奧朗德的經(jīng)濟部長。

馬克龍獲得了65.8%的得票率，以近一倍的優(yōu)勢，擊敗了極右翼國民陣線（Front National）候選人馬林·勒龐（34.2%），成為法國140多年來最年輕的國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。這一結(jié)果再次堅定了法國對貿(mào)易自由主義和歐盟的承諾，盡管法國境內(nèi)伊斯蘭教徒暴力行為日益增多，主流政黨也沒有解決長久以來的失業(yè)和預(yù)算赤字問題。

對于歐洲近年來最重要的一次選舉，你需要知道下面幾件事。

1. 民粹主義潮流只是暫時平息，但并未消失

正如我們上周所說的，這是歐洲主流勢力的一次重要勝利，但并非最終的勝利。雖然總統(tǒng)大選通常歸結(jié)為個性的競爭，但事實上，一年多來法國的失業(yè)率在不斷下降，并且終于實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟增長。商業(yè)調(diào)查顯示，法國經(jīng)濟創(chuàng)下了六年來最快的增長速度。這分流了勒龐吸引的抗議選票。她在兩周前的首輪投票中獲得了21.3%的得票率，但在2014年歐盟議會選舉時，她的政黨的得票率為24.8%，下降了3.5%。事后看來，2014年的投票結(jié)果，可能成為國民陣線在危機后的周期高點。但增長也是周期性的，許多因素正在削弱對仇恨全球化、恐懼伊斯蘭教和失業(yè)問題等極右翼和極左翼主張的支持，這些因素都是結(jié)構(gòu)性的。2002年，讓-馬里·勒龐參加大選時的得票率為17.8%，而他女兒的得票率幾乎翻了一番，這在表面上依舊可以證明，從長期來看，國民陣線正處在上升趨勢。

2. 法國例外

2006年民粹主義者取得了兩場巨大的勝利，分別是唐納德·特朗普勝選和英國脫歐公投，而這兩次勝利主要都歸功于老年選民。65歲以上選民支持特朗普的比例比反對者高出八個百分點（54% - 46%），而支持脫歐的65歲以上選民更是比反對者高出20個百分點（60% - 40%），令人感到詫異。相比之下，據(jù)哈佛學者雅斯查·蒙克指出，年輕人比其他年齡群體更傾向于支持勒龐。據(jù)蒙克引用的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，老年人支持和反對馬克龍的比例分別為80% - 20%。

3. 對歐元的支持

退休老人害怕勒龐當選的部分原因，無疑是因為她承諾退出歐元區(qū)，推出新法郎（盡管她的思路雜亂無章，甚至她自己可能都不理解）。巧合的是，老年人反對和支持勒龐的比例分別為80% - 20%，與民意調(diào)查網(wǎng)站Opinion-Way.fr就她退出歐元區(qū)的承諾是否現(xiàn)實進行民調(diào)時得到的結(jié)果完全相同。對于老年人來說，“法國脫歐”可能意味著購買力下降，通貨膨脹加劇。而與其他發(fā)達國家一樣，老年人正在對選舉結(jié)果產(chǎn)生越來越大的影響力。此外，法國選民不再像希臘選民一樣，認為更廉價、更自由的貨幣，可以解決他們的問題。法國有48%的進口來自歐元區(qū)，民眾有這樣的態(tài)度也就不足為奇了。

4. 馬克龍有很強的學習能力

馬克龍在首輪投票結(jié)束進入決勝輪之后，在巴黎一家高檔餐廳舉行了盛大的派對，結(jié)果遭到激烈的批評。對于許多人來說，這意味著他認為最終勝利已經(jīng)板上釘釘。他也確實有理由這樣想，因為數(shù)月來每一次民意調(diào)查都顯示，他對勒龐有明顯的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢，但沒有人喜歡被認為是理所當然的。所以，他在周日發(fā)表的獲勝演講變得謙遜得多。犬儒主義者可能認為，這也表明他現(xiàn)在真得應(yīng)該對競爭對手友好一些，因為他所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的“前進”（En Marche!）運動，在6月份的國民議會選舉中并不能保證取得好成績。而如果在議會中不能掌握可靠的多數(shù)席位，馬克龍將很難頒布改革方案，來徹底消除各種極端主義威脅。

5. 選民可以分辨虛假新聞

此次選舉有一個顯而易見的好消息，那就是法國選民基本上沒有受到虛假新聞持續(xù)攻擊的影響，其中多數(shù)虛假新聞的目的都是抹黑馬克龍。有消息稱馬克龍隱瞞了同性戀的身份，并稱他在巴哈馬群島擁有秘密銀行賬戶的，雖然這些說法在法國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣為流傳，但卻并沒有左右選情。最后有人試圖用一批據(jù)稱是被黑客竊取的電子郵件，來阻止馬克龍（初步跡象顯示此事依舊與俄羅斯有關(guān)），但這種愚蠢的做法一兩個小時之后，法國政府緊急頒布了針對選舉相關(guān)新聞報道的傳統(tǒng)禁令。相比之下，左傾司法部門旨在抹黑建制派中右翼候選人弗朗索瓦·菲永的泄密行動，卻取得了成功，至少因為泄露的信息更有事實依據(jù)。這種形勢的寓意在于，只要法國建制派能夠比非建制派更專業(yè)地引導(dǎo)民意，法國的民主便是安全的。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

Europe can finally breathe out.

Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old former investment banker with Rothschild who briefly served as Francois Hollande's economy minister, has been elected president of France for the next five years.

According to preliminary figures, he trounced the far right Front National candidate Marine Le Pen by a margin of 65.8% to 34.2%—almost two to one—to become the youngest leader of France in over 140 years. With that result, France has reaffirmed its commitment to liberalism and the European Union, despite the surge in Islamist atrocities on French soil in recent years, and despite the failure of mainstream parties to tackle the chronic problems of unemployment and budget deficits.

Here's what you need to know about the most important election in the heart of Europe in years.

1. Populism Postponed, not Cancelled

As we argued last week, this is a major victory for Europe's mainstream, but it's not a final one. While this has often been boiled down to a battle of personalities, the fact is that unemployment has been falling for over a year, while growth has finally taken root. Business surveys suggest the economy is growing at its fastest rate in six years. That has drained protest votes away from Le Pen. The 21.3% she received in the first round two weeks ago was already 3.5% less than the 24.8% her party got in elections to the EU Parliament in 2014. The 2014 result, in hindsight, will go down as the post-crisis cyclical peak for the FN. But growth is cyclical, and many of the factors underpinning support for the far right and far left—a resentment of globalization, a fear of Islamism, and much of the unemployment problem, are structural. Le Pen, who still got nearly double the 17.8% her father Jean-Marie got in the 2002 run-off, can still plausibly argue that the FN is on an upward long-term trajectory.

2. The French Exception

The two great populist successes of 2016, the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum, both owed much to older voters. Over 65s voted for Trump by a margin of eight percentage points (54%-46%), and voted for Brexit by a thumping 20-point margin (60%-40%). By contrast, the young were more inclined to vote for Le Pen than any other age group, Harvard lecturer Yascha Mounk pointed out. According to figures cited by Mounk, the gray vote split 80%-20% in favor of Macron.

3. Support for the Euro

Part of retirees' fear of Le Pen was doubtless tied to her promises to withdraw from the euro and reintroduce the franc (albeit in a muddled way which even she probably didn't understand). The 80%-20% split in the old vote against Le Pen was, coincidentally, exactly the same as produced when pollster Opinion-Way.fr asked whether her promises on pulling out of the Euro were realistic. 'Frexit' would have meant less spending power and more inflation for a demographic that, as everywhere in the advanced world, is exerting a huge and growing influence on election results. Ultimately, French voters didn't think a cheaper, freer currency would solve their problems any more than Greece's did. Which is hardly surprising when 48% of your imports come from the Eurozone.

4. Macron is a quick learner

After the first round of voting, Macron was slammed for holding a big party in an upscale Paris restaurant after making it through to the run-off. To many, that suggested he was already thinking victory was a nailed-on certainty. He had good reason to, since every opinion poll for months had shown him clearly beating Le Pen, but nobody likes to be taken for granted, and his victory speech on Sunday was a lot more humble. Cynics would say it also reflected the fact that he now really has to start being nice to his opponents, because his movement, En Marche!, is by no means guaranteed to do as well in elections to the Assembly in June. And without a reliable majority in parliament, Macron will struggle to enact the reforms needed to kill off the extremist menace for good.

5. Voters are wising up to fake news

One unambiguously good piece of news out of the vote is that French voters have been largely immune to a constant barrage of fake news, the overwhelming majority of which was aimed at discrediting Macron. Allegations of secret homosexuality and clandestine bank accounts in the Bahamas gained ample space in the French Internet, but failed to gain traction. A final ham-fisted attempt to embarrass Macron with a trove of what purported to be hacked e-mails (first indications suggest the trail leads back - again - to Russia) only broke an hour or two before the traditional ban on reporting election-relevant news descended. By contrast, a targeted campaign of leaks from a largely left-leaning judiciary discrediting the establishment center-right candidate Francois Fillon succeeded spectacularly, not least because they appeared to be better founded in fact. The moral appears to be that democracy in France will be safe as long as the establishment does a more professional job of manipulating public opinion than the anti-establishment.