歐洲央行及其行長在一個問題上已經達成了共識，那就是他們不會再掉進同一個坑了。也就是說，雖然歐洲的政治風氣仍有一些民粹氛圍，意大利央行這顆定時炸彈也依然存在引爆的風險，但作為世界第二大央行的歐洲央行絕不會再出昏招，將此次歐元區的經濟復蘇扼殺在搖籃里。

盡管歐元區的經濟活動已處于六年來最活躍的水平，盡管右翼民粹主義政客瑪麗娜?勒龐在此次法國大選中落敗幾成定局，盡管面臨德國人洶涌的民意壓力，不過在歐洲央行政策制定委員會近日的一次新聞發布會上，歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉基仍未透露任何一絲要收緊貨幣政策的意思。

隨著美聯儲推出持續了近十年的大手筆的經濟刺激政策，歐洲央行繼續開閘放水的決定，對于全球金融市場也顯得越發重要。

由于歐元區的經濟和政治前景日益明朗，上周早些時候，歐元兌美元匯率曾一度攀升到近五個月來的最高點。隨后隨著金融市場的預期回落，歐元匯率也應聲下降近0.005美元，而歐洲斯托克50指數則彌補了此前遭受的大部分損失。

德拉基與歐洲央行并非沒有意識到歐元區的經濟正在向好（畢竟他們不愿意放棄任何一個往自己身上攬功的機會）。德拉基本人也表示，歐洲的經濟復蘇之路也由以前的“脆弱和不均衡”變成了現在的“全面而穩固”。之前狀況頻出的幾個國家，如西班牙、愛爾蘭和法國的經濟增長率也達到甚至超過了德國這個老牌歐洲經濟火車頭的水平。

德拉基指出：“情況的確有所改善，局面正在變好。”經濟下行風險“進一步弱化”，目前僅僅略高于上行風險。

同時，歐洲央行也絲毫沒有表現出要終止大規模購買資產的計劃。歐洲央行的購債規模雖然已經調低至了每月600億歐元（約660億美元）。但這樣的購債規模至少還將持續至今年年底。

另外，當問到歐洲退出當前的緊急政策狀態的“順序”時，德拉基顯然是上了套，直言目前沒有討論退出寬松政策的順序的必要——否則他本來可以利用這次機會暗示央行有可能會在量化寬松結束前提高利率。歐洲央行的主要再融資利率連續13個月都定在0%，存款利率則為-0.4%——也就是說各國要想將多余資金存放在歐洲央行，則要向其支付0.4%的利息。

德拉基的發言一邊對歐洲經濟前景表示看好，一邊卻淡化了歐洲央行采取動作的意愿，乍看起來似乎在打太極。同時德拉基還表示，目前歐洲的通脹水平尚無明顯的上行趨勢（目前仍未達到略低于2%的中期目標）。同時他也提醒現場媒體，英國脫歐以及貿易戰的風險（尤其是美國挑起的貿易戰）仍然存在，即便這兩大風險較六個月前稍有淡化。

不過分析師們認為，此項歐洲央行之所以按兵不動，背后大有深意。

柏林貝林貝格銀行首席經濟學家霍爾格?施米丁指出：“歐洲央行可能不想重復六年前犯過的同樣的錯誤，就在歐元期經濟危機爆發前，歐洲央行草率地采取了加息政策。”當時歐洲央行沒有意識到歐元區的金融體系已經到了千創百孔的地步，對當時的通脹率的升高做出了過度反應。然而接下來造成的經濟混亂使歐元區幾乎到了破裂的邊緣，直到德拉基本人站出來，承諾要“不惜一切代價拯救歐元”，才穩住了局面。

上周四，德拉基堅稱歐洲央行能分得清“事實、評估和歷史”。不過在2011年，正是由于歐洲央行那次災難性的誤判，才使得他繼任讓?克勞德?特里謝成為了歐洲央行的行長，而不是來自德國的貨幣政策鷹派阿克塞爾?韋伯。

看來他并非沒有吸取這種重大的人生教訓。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

The Who and the European Central Bank have this much in common: they won't get fooled again. That is to say, no way will the world's 2nd largest central bank kill off the Eurozone's recovery while there's still a whiff of political populism in the air, or the slightest risk of a bad Italian bank blowing up.

Despite the fact that Eurozone economic activity is at a six-year high, despite the near-certain defeat of the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in France's presidential elections, and despite the relentless pressure of German public opinion, President Mario Draghi refused to even hint at tightening monetary policy at the press conference that followed the latest meeting of the ECB's policy-making council.

The ECB's determination to keep the monetary spigots wide open is arguably becoming more important for the world's financial markets as the Federal Reserve exits from a near-decade of extraordinary stimulus.

The euro, which had hit a five-month high against the dollar on the back of a brightening economic and political outlook earlier this week, lost nearly half a cent as traders pushed back expectations of a return to a more normal stance, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index recouped most of the earlier losses it had suffered.

It's not that Draghi and his colleagues don't recognize how much better the Eurozone economy is performing now (they never lose an opportunity to take as much credit as possible for that, after all). Draghi said that where the recovery had once been "fragile and uneven" it was now "broad and solid." Former problem countries such as Spain, Ireland and France are now growing as fast as, or even faster, than Germany, the region's usual powerhouse.

"It's true things are improving. Things are getting better," Draghi said. Downside risks "have further diminished," and now only just outweigh the upside risks.

But not so much better that the ECB was willing even to discuss ending its asset purchases, which it has now scaled down to a 'mere' 60 billion euros ($66 billion) a month. That will still run at least through the end of the year.

And not so much better that Draghi took the bait when asked about 'sequencing' the exit from the current emergency policy stance – which would have allowed him to hint at raising interest rates before the Quantitative Easing program ends. The ECB's main refinancing rate has been set at 0% for the last 13 months, and it has been charging banks 0.4% for parking their excess funds with it in that time.

Talking up the economy while talking down the Bank's willingness to act is hard to square at first sight. Draghi did so by saying there was still no clear upward trend in underlying inflation (which is still undershooting a medium-term target of just under 2%). He also reminded his audience that the risks of Brexit or a (likely U.S.-initiated) trade war hadn't gone away either, even though both seem less likely now than they did six months ago.

However, analysts said there was more to it than that.

"The ECB probably does not want to repeat the mistake it made almost exactly six years ago when it prematurely hiked rates just before the Eurozone crisis erupted," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in Berlin. Back then, the ECB had failed to recognize how badly broken the Eurozone's financial system was, and had over-reacted to an uptick in headline inflation. The ensuing mess stretched the currency union to the point of breaking, before Draghi himself rescued the situation with the promise to "do whatever it takes to save the euro."

Draghi insisted Thursday the ECB was capable of distinguishing between "facts, assessments and history," but it was that disastrous miscalculation that ensured it was he, and not the German monetary hawk Axel Weber, who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB back in 2011.

Those kind of life lessons tend not to be unlearned.