觀眾喜歡看什么片子，電腦告訴你
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為了打造一部叫好又叫座的大片，好萊塢往往不惜投入大量的人力財力，以給電影調配出一劑完美的“配方”。而現在也有越來越多的創業公司瞄準了這塊商機，做起了預測好萊塢電影票房的生意來。 近來一些創業公司開始利用分析技術和計算機算法預測電影的票房數據，以色列的一家人工智能創業公司Vault就是其中的代表。 Vault公司的共同創始人、CEO大衛·斯蒂夫表示，該公司研發的4CAST平臺只需要看一眼電影的劇本或預告片，就能根據它的“核心故事DNA”分析出一部電影的票房前景。Vault公司成立于2015年，該公司基于過去30多年的票房收入、電影預算、觀眾人口構成和電影選角等信息，又花了整整兩年的時間，終于研發出了這套神經網絡算法，用以預測電影的票房前景。 無獨有偶，英國的Epagogix公司（成立于2003年）、ScriptBook公司和波士頓的Pilot等公司也在深耕這一領域。一些思維比較超前的電影工作室也建立了內部的分析團隊，在數據分析的基礎上建立自己的市場策略，比如傳奇影業（目前已被大連萬達收入旗下）等。 斯蒂夫承認，他的平臺沒有預測到最近大熱的恐怖電影《逃出絕命鎮》的票房成功，因為它低估了這部電影在社交平臺上的火熱程度。不過斯蒂夫表示，Vault平臺有七成五的預測都是“相當接近”電影的實際票房的。最近該公司預測科幻驚悚電影《異星覺醒》的國內首映票房是1610萬美元，據票房魔咒網（Box Office Mojo）統計，該影片的最終首映票房是1250萬美元。是不是覺得這預測不太靠譜？這還不算什么。Vault預測最近上映的一部警匪喜劇片《CHiPs》的首映票房是1500萬美元，然而實際上它僅僅拿下了770萬美元。 就在好萊塢為打贏票房大戰而絞盡腦汁的同時，另一場旨在吸引觀眾眼球的戰爭早已悄然打響了。票房預測在好萊塢一直是一個熱門的概念，近年來隨著Netflix和亞馬遜視頻等流媒體平臺的興起，使得這一永恒的需求又平添了幾分緊迫感。 憑借大量寶貴的用戶數據，Netflix等在線流媒體平臺可以通過其掌握的海量信息，分析觀眾真正想要看什么，以及什么時候看、怎么看。而對于電影工作室來說，它們自然無法得到那些流媒體平臺的數據（Netflix和亞馬遜也不會給），但是票房成績卻基本上是公開透明的。 換句話說，傳統上好萊塢用來尋找完美算法的方法，與即將到來的大數據戰爭相比，必定會黯然失色。 人工智能預測今夏大片首映票房 ? 海灘救護隊 ? 3500塊銀幕上映，預計首映票房2158萬美元。 ? 《小屁孩日記之長途旅行》 ? 3400塊銀幕上映，預計首映票房1730萬美元。 ? 《倉皇一夜》 ? 3000塊銀幕上映，預計首映票房1560萬美元 ? 《綁架》 ? 3000塊銀幕上影，預計首映票房1330萬美元 ? 計算機算法可以利用該片主演艾米·舒默的知名度等參數預測影片的票房成績。 ? 《極寒之城》 ? 2900塊銀幕上映，預計首映票房920萬美元。 本文以《好萊塢為大片票房尋找奇妙算法（Hollywood's Search for a Blockbuster Algorithm）》為題，刊載于2017年5月1日刊的《財富》雜志上。（財富中文網） 譯者：樸成奎 |
Hollywood allocates considerable brainpower and capital toward crafting the perfect formula for a blockbuster. And now a growing number of tech startups are taking that idea literally. Take Vault, an Israel-based artificial-intelligence startup that’s one of the newest entrants using analytics and algorithms to predict ticket sales. Vault CEO and co-founder David Stiff says his company’s 4CAST platform can analyze the box office potential of a film based only on the “core story DNA” gleaned from a raw screenplay or a movie trailer. Founded in 2015, Vault has spent two years honing a neural-network algorithm that relies on 30 years worth of box office revenues, film budgets, audience demographics, and casting information to help determine box office potential. And it’s not alone. Other companies in the space include the U.K.’s Epagogix, founded in 2003, as well as ScriptBook and Boston-based Pilot. Forward-thinking studios like Legendary Pictures (now owned by China’s Dalian Wanda) also rely on their own in-house analytics teams to devise data-informed marketing strategies. Stiff admits his platform whiffed on the recent surprise box office success of the groundbreaking satirical horror movie Get Out after underestimating the film’s social media buzz. But ultimately, he says roughly 75 percent of Vault’s predictions come “pretty close” to the films’ actual opening grosses. The company recently predicted a $16.1 million domestic opening for the sci-fi thriller Life, which debuted at $12.5 million, according to Box Office Mojo. A little farther afield? Buddy cop comedy CHiPs premiered to $7.7 million, versus Vault’s $15 million prediction. While Hollywood tweaks the code for the box office battle, a larger war for audiences’ attention looms. Box office forecasting has always been en vogue in Hollywood, but the movie industry’s eternal conundrum has a new element of urgency thanks to the ascendance of streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Video. With their treasure troves of user data, those online distributors have access to a wealth of information that can help gauge exactly what audiences want to watch—and how and when. And, while traditional movie studios don’t have access to that same data (which Netflix and Amazon do not share), box office results are mostly public knowledge. In other words, traditional Hollywood’s search for the perfect algorithm could pale in comparison to the Big Data battles to come. AI Predicts This Summer's Opening Weekend Box-Office Hauls ? BAYWATCH $21.58m on 3,500 screens ? DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL $17.3m on 3,400 screens ? ROUGH NIGHT $15.6m on 3,000 screens ? SNATCHED ? $13.3m on 3,000 screens Algorithms can use inputs like Amy Schumer’s popularity to project ticket sales. ? ATOMIC BLONDE $9.2m on 2,900 screens A version of this article appears in the May 1, 2017 issue of Fortune with the headline "Hollywood's Search for a Blockbuster Algorithm." |
