近日，朝鮮針對當前半島局勢作出強硬回應，稱已準備好在受到美國挑釁時發動核打擊。隨著地緣政治風險日益緊張，上周二，各大金融市場也陷入了恐慌狀態。隨著對半島火藥桶徹底引爆的擔憂愈演愈烈，位于半島南端的韓國首當其沖地受到了影響。

風險經理拉里?麥克唐納德上周二在他的博客“The Bear Traps Report”中指出，韓國主權債務違約的保險成本在一夜之間顯著升高了。

在美朝雙方進行了針鋒相對的戰爭恐嚇后，本周二投資者們紛紛轉向了傳統的幾種避險交易工具，韓國主權債務違約保險成本上升只是由此造成的市場變化之一。上周二，黃金和日元價值都躍升到了近五個月來的最高水平。

韓國的信用違約掉期一夜之間從53個基本點躍升到60個基本點，也就是說，每1000萬美元的五年債務違約保險成本將達到每年6萬美元。這也是自去年七月市場對亞洲經濟疲軟的擔憂達到頂峰以來的最高水平。

需要指出的是，業界普遍認為韓國主權債務違約的風險仍然很低。但即便如此，信用違約掉期在一夜之間上漲這么多，仍然是不同尋常的跡象。

麥克唐納德對《財富》表示：“韓國是不會違約的，不過韓國的主權違約風險畢竟從6%上漲到了9%，這在短期內是一種顯著變化。”

信用違約掉期（CDS）是一種不太容易理解的金融工具，在金融危機爆發后得到更多關注。它本質上是一種針對債務違約的保險合約。當投資者對一國政府（比如韓國）的債務信用產生擔憂時，就可以購買一份這樣的合約。

對于在亞洲經營有大規模業務的美國企業，信用違約掉期不失為一種對沖廣域地緣政治風險的實用工具。

“如果我是蘋果公司的CEO，我會針對亞洲的一些國家購買信用違約掉期。”麥克唐納德表示：“如果該地區發生了政治動蕩，你的供應鏈可能處于顯著的風險之中。”

本周二，特朗普在推特上給本已火藥味甚濃的半島局勢又添了一把火，他表示“朝鮮正在自找麻煩，”并且向中國國家主席習近平提醒道，如果“他們解決了朝鮮問題”，中美之間或許能達成更有利的貿易協定。

“朝鮮是在自找麻煩。如果中國決定幫忙，那很好。如果不能幫忙，美國會單獨解決問題！”

-唐納德?J?特朗普（@realDonaldTrump），2017年4月11日

“我向中國國家主席解釋道，如果他們解決了朝鮮問題，中國將能與美國簽署有利得多的貿易協定。”

-唐納德?J?特朗普（@realDonaldTrump），2017年4月11日

這兩條推特是在四天前的“習特會”剛剛結束后發布的，到目前為止，“習特會”尚未宣布中美之間達成了任何重大突破或合作。

麥克唐納德表示：“在協助解決朝鮮問題上，中國不會任由特朗普予取予求。如果中國確實無法提供足夠的支持，肯定會影響中美之間的貿易談判。這對蘋果來說也是個壞消息，因為你的供應鏈會有風險。”（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Financial markets are rattled Tuesday by increasing geopolitical risks, after North Korea warned it stands ready to deploy its nuclear arsenal if provoked by the United States. And the concerns reverberate throughout the region, affecting the communist nation’s democratic neighbor to the south as well.

The cost to insure against a sovereign debt default by South Korea suddenly jumped Tuesday, notes risk manager Larry McDonald on his blog, The Bear Traps Report.

It’s one of several market moves playing out Tuesday as investors increasingly flock to traditional safe-haven trades. U.S. Treasury yields have been falling for the last two days. Both gold and the Japanese yen climbed to their highest levels in five months on Tuesday.

Overnight, credit default swap spreads for South Korea jumped from 53 basis points to 60 basis points, meaning it would cost about $60,000 a year to insure $10 million of debt for five years. That’s the highest level since July, when concerns about economic weakness in Asia prevailed.

To be clear, the probability of a default by South Korea is still considered quite low, but nevertheless, the overnight jump is a dramatic one.

“South Korea is not going to default, but the probability of default just went from maybe 6% to 9%. It’s a big move to happen in short period of time,” McDonald told Fortune.

An obscure financial instrument that rose to greater prominence during the financial crisis, a credit default swap, or CDS, is basically an insurance contract against a default. Investors can buy a contract against a sovereign government like South Korea as they speculate on the creditworthiness of that government.

For U.S. companies with a large presence in Asia, these CDS contracts may be a useful hedge against geopolitical risk in the broader region.

“If I was the CEO of Apple, I would be buying credit default swaps on countries in Asia," McDonald said. "If something were to happen politically in that region, your supply chain is at dramatic risk."

Tweets by President Trump early Tuesday only added further fuel to the fire. The president tweeted that “North Korea is looking for trouble,” and reminded Chinese President Xi Jinping that China and the U.S. could strike a better trade deal if “they solve the North Korean problem.”

North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

Those tweets follow Trump’s first face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping just four days ago, which so far has led to no major breakthroughs or pacts between the world's two largest economies.

“China didn’t give Trump everything he wanted in terms of assurances on their help with North Korea,” McDonald said. “If China doesn’t really offer enough support, that’s going to hurt the trade negotiations. That’s bad for Apple because you’ve got supply chain risk.”