增強現實涵蓋了所有利用數字信息，無縫強化現實世界的技術。在未來十年里，增強現實如我們所知的那樣，取代智能手機和平板電腦等設備的屏幕。上一季度，蘋果有69%的收入來自iPhone，7%來自iPad，另外在這些平臺上銷售的應用，蘋果也都能按一定比例抽成。如果蘋果無法主宰增強現實領域，那么隨著使用增強現實技術的硬件取代智能手機，成為我們聯系世界的主要接口，蘋果將會有四分之三甚至更多的業務消失。

對蘋果而言的好消息是，公司內部的文化可以讓他們行動起來，把重心從當下的智能手機轉向未來由增強現實技術優化過的智能手機和可穿戴設備。

增強現實會以我們的智能手機作為載體，我們當中許多人使用這項技術時甚至沒有意識到這點。例如，Snapchat的透鏡可以讓用戶在通訊時改變自己的臉型，增加狗耳朵或是玻璃缸的背景。另一個案例則是2016年火爆的《精靈寶可夢Go》（Pokemon Go），玩家可以造訪現實世界的地點，捕捉游戲中的精靈。

這些早期的應用看起來可能只是些噱頭，不過未來的增強現實會有更強的實用性。例如可以用視線的轉動來翻動書頁，而不用親手操作；利用面部識別幫助回憶某些人與你的關系；過濾背景音的耳機可以讓你在嘈雜環境下聽清對話；衣物則會根據天氣來調節溫度，這些先進的產品會讓我們驚嘆自己在沒有真正的增強現實技術之前，是怎么活了那么久。

谷歌（Google）、微軟（Microsoft）和Facebook也在增強現實領域展開了競爭。谷歌在增強現實技術的數據庫上占有優勢，而蘋果則手握一張勝過其他所有公司的王牌：設計。

想要實現對現實世界持久、無縫的增強，增強現實技術需要植入可穿戴設備才能有足夠的吸引力。人們討論最多的增強現實的應用，就是某些形式的聯網眼鏡。盡管眼鏡可能將成為智能手機之外的一種增強現實設備，但音頻設備、手表，甚至聯網服裝也可以成為增強現實技術的載體。正如所有的服裝和配件一樣，消費者會要求可穿戴的增強現實設備看起來時尚、不違和，搭載的計算機也不要過于明顯（谷歌眼鏡在這些方面都做得不好）。因此，設計，而非功能，才是增強現實技術從智能手機轉向未來的計算接口的首要因素。

沒有哪家公司的電子產品比蘋果的更加時尚。谷歌和微軟的核心設計實力不足，無法打造出讓消費者嘆服的可穿戴產品，這意味著他們很可能把重點放在軟件開發上。而蘋果就能因此獲得整合優質軟硬件的熟悉位置。

我們之前看過這樣的劇情。微軟統治了個人電腦的市場份額，蘋果遠遠地排在第二位。谷歌的安卓（Android）也統治了智能手機的市場份額，蘋果又一次遠遠排在第二。但蘋果在這兩個市場都掌控了硬件和軟件，提供了最好的用戶體驗，這也讓公司在業內獲取了遠超市場份額比例的巨額利潤。

那么蘋果在增強現實領域會有怎樣的未來？按照他們典型的創新模式，蘋果如今正在進行小規模的摸索。首先是公司的新款無線耳機AirPods。這是一款早期的增強現實產品，可以與聲控個人助手Siri保持聯系。AirPods展現了蘋果的設計優勢，考慮到對產品的高要求，供應量還很有限。其次，蘋果上周發布了新的視頻應用Clips，用戶可以給視頻信息加上特效，就像用Snapchat的透鏡一樣。第三，今年秋天即將上市的新一代iPhone據說會搭載3D地圖芯片，這可以讓蘋果和第三方開發者通過新的方式與用戶環境互動，這也將成為蘋果第一款優化了增強現實技術的智能手機。這類手機可以縮小如今的智能手機與未來的增強現實可穿戴設備之間的鴻溝，在未來三到五年內擴大智能手機的適用范圍，使之成為占主導地位的增強現實設備。

在這些小規模的探索之外，蘋果也非同尋常地表示了對于增強現實的興趣。今年2月，蘋果的首席執行官蒂姆·庫克表示，他把增強現實看作“智能手機一樣的重要想法”。不過，庫克也承認：“增強現實的普及還需要一段時間，因為還有一些很難解決的技術挑戰。”主要的難題之一，就是在實現高質量體驗和長續航時間的同時，把配件做得足夠小。蘋果很可能已經開始研發一款可穿戴眼鏡，然而我們想要見到成品，最早也得到2019年，原因只有一個：用戶體驗。蘋果不會放出體驗糟糕的半成品。兩年的等待可能令人失望，不過蘋果已經證明，即便競爭者已經進入市場多年，他們憑借更好的產品也能后來居上占領好位置。

史蒂夫·喬布斯砍掉了那些沒有特色的蘋果產品，因為他知道如果蘋果不去做，其他人也可以做。這種導向依舊深深扎根于公司的DNA里。蘋果的增強現實困境不在于是否要取消iPhone，而是公司要花多長時間才能合理地做到這一點。他們的等待將是值得的。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

本文作者吉恩·蒙斯特、道格·克林頓和安德魯·墨菲是Loup Ventures的任事股東。蒙斯特和墨菲是蘋果的投資人，墨菲還是谷歌的投資人。

AR includes any technology that uses digital information to seamlessly enhance the real world. Over the next 10 years, AR will replace the screen as we know it, including those of smartphones and tablets. Apple generated 69% of its revenue from the iPhone and 7% from the iPad last quarter; additionally, the company takes a cut of all software sold on those platforms. If Apple doesn’t find a way to dominate AR, it could see three-quarters or more of its business disappear as new AR-focused hardware supplants the smartphone as our interface to the world.

The good news for Apple is that it’s culturally built to make the move from the smartphones of today to the AR-optimized smartphones and wearables of the future.

AR is delivered through our smartphones, and many of us use the technology without even thinking about it. For example, Snapchat’s lenses allow users to change what their face looks like in messages, adding dog ears or an aquarium background. Another example is thePokemon Go craze of 2016; gamers visited real-world locations to catch characters in the game.

These early applications may seem gimmicky, but the AR of the future will enable far more utility. Use cases like dynamic visual how-to manuals for hands-on work, facial recognition to help recall details about a relationship with someone you’re with, earphones that filter out background noise so you can only hear your conversation in a noisy environment, and clothing that adjusts its temperature based on the weather will make us wonder how we ever lived without true AR.

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are also competing in the AR space. While Google holds an advantage in building up a data base to use with the technology, Apple holds a trump card over all the others: design.

To enable persistent, seamless augmentation of the real world, compelling AR will require the adoption of wearables. The most talked about device for AR delivery is some form of connected glasses. While glasses will likely be an enabler of AR beyond the smartphone, audio devices, watches, and even connected clothing also belong in the AR category. As with all clothing and accessories, consumers will require wearable AR devices to look fashionable, unobtrusive, and not obviously a computer (Google Glass failed at all of these). Therefore, design, not function, is the most important factor for AR to make the leap from a smartphone feature to the computing interface of the future.

No one makes more fashionable electronics than Apple. Neither Google nor Microsoft has the core design competency to create compelling consumer product designs for wearables, which means they will most likely be relegated to primarily providing software. That puts Apple in the familiar position of integrating premium hardware and software.

We’ve seen this game before. Microsoft dominates PC market share, with Apple a distant second. Google’s Android dominates smartphone market share, with Apple again a distant second. In both cases, Apple offers the best user experience by controlling both the hardware and software, which allows the company to capture an outsized portion of industry profits relative to their total unit share.

So what’s next for Apple in AR? True to their typical pattern of innovation, Apple is taking baby steps. First, AirPods, the company’s new wireless earphones, represent an early AR product that enables a constant connection with the voice-activated personal assistant Siri. The AirPods show Apple’s design advantage and remain limited in supply given the high demand for them. Second, Apple announced its Clips video app last week, which lets users add effects to video messages like they can with Snapchat’s lenses. Third, the next iPhone, coming this fall, is rumored to include a 3D mapping chip that would enable Apple and third-party developers to interact with a user’s environment in new ways—Apple’s first AR-optimized smartphone. The AR-optimized smartphone bridges the gap from the smartphones of today to the AR wearables of tomorrow, extending the runway of the smartphone as the predominant AR device for the next three to five years.

Beyond these baby steps, Apple has been uncharacteristically vocal about its interest in AR. In February, CEO Tim Cook said he views AR as “a big idea like the smartphone.” However, Cook also admitted, “AR is going to take a while because there are some really hard technology challenges there.” The main challenges include miniaturization of the components necessary to deliver a high-quality experience and battery capacity. Apple is probably already working on a wearable glasses product, but 2019 would likely be the earliest we see Apple Glasses for one reason: user experience. Apple will not release a product that is half-baked and provides a poor user experience. A two-year wait for Apple Glasses may be disappointing, but Apple has shown that it is comfortable entering a market well after its competitors so long as it offers a better product.

Steve Jobs killed off Apple products that weren’t exceptional because he knew that if he didn’t do it, someone else would. That guidance remains deeply ingrained in the company’s DNA. Apple's AR dilemma isn’t whether or not to kill the iPhone, but how long it will take the company to viably do so. It’ll be worth the wait.