人工智能（AI）技術預計將在10年內改變卡車運輸行業(yè)，這是自動駕駛卡車公司Otto聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人里奧?羅恩的看法。去年8月，叫車服務提供商優(yōu)步收購了Otto，據稱收購價為6.80億美元。

本周一，羅恩在舊金山的《MIT Technology Review》人工智能大會上預計，10年內無人駕駛卡車就會在全美國的高速公路上跑常規(guī)線路了。

羅恩的話和美國商務部長史蒂夫?努欽的表態(tài)正好相反。努欽最近接受新聞網站Axios采訪時說，差不多50-100年內人工智能都不會明顯影響就業(yè)。許多技術專家和分析師都認為努欽作出這番評價時未掌握相關信息，原因是人工智能最近取得的進展已經有可能讓計算機執(zhí)行某些任務的速度超過人，比如在圖片中識別物體。

主持人問羅恩，無人駕駛卡車的興起對人類卡車司機來說意味著什么？羅恩回答說，他們的工作會發(fā)生巨大的變化。但他沒有明確表示會不會出現大面積失業(yè)。

相反，羅恩說在“可預見的未來”，AI技術會成為卡車司機的“合伙駕駛人”。他指出，“卡車司機并不是一份輕松的工作”，他們最多得駕車11個小時“才能勉強實現收支平衡”。

羅恩認為，想當卡車司機的人“不是非常多”，而且整個美國都缺這樣的工作機會。他相信Otto的技術有可能讓卡車在比有人駕駛還安全的狀態(tài)下行駛許多個小時。

“瞧，一部分駕駛工作將完全實現自動化。”羅恩指的是自動駕駛卡車在高速和普通公路上行駛的想法。不過，他說卡車在城市中行駛時仍需要人類司機來控制方向。

城市街道對自動駕駛車輛來說難度較大，因為它們得應付較多可變因素，比如行人、紅綠燈和交叉路口。羅恩說，“這種工作的性質將發(fā)生轉變”，從而讓司機把更多時間用于在城市中將卡車開往目的地，而不是在高速公路上長時間行駛。

但羅恩并未提及Otto的母公司優(yōu)步正在積極開發(fā)不需要人為干預就能在城市中穿行的自動駕駛轎車。如果優(yōu)步最終制造出能在城市中安全行駛的自動駕駛車輛，對人類司機在城市中駕駛卡車的需求就可能下降。

應當注意的是，上周五發(fā)生測試車輛側翻事故后，優(yōu)步暫停了亞利桑那州的無人駕駛汽車行駛測試。

今年2月，自動駕駛卡車初創(chuàng)公司Starsky Robotics首次亮相，它說自己帶來的技術可以讓卡車司機在必須穿過城市時遙控自動駕駛卡車。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

Expect artificial intelligence technologies to alter the truck driving industry within the next 10 years. That’s according to Lior Ron, the cofounder of self-driving truck company Otto, which ride-hailing company Uber bought in August for a reported $680 million.

Ron said Monday that he expects driverless trucks to routinely cruise throughout U.S. freeways in the next decade. He made his comments in San Francisco during a MIT Technology Review conference on artificial intelligence.

Ron’s comments contrast with statements made by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Steve Mnuchin, who said in a recent interview with news outlet Axios that AI will not affect jobs in a meaningful way for roughly 50 to 100 years. Many technologists and analysts perceived Mnuchin’s comments on AI and jobs as uninformed when compared to recent AI advancements that have made it possible for computers to perform several tasks, like recognizing objects in pictures, faster than humans.

When a moderator asked Ron what the rise of driver-less trucks means for human truck drivers, Ron acknowledged that their jobs would drastically change. However, he stopped short of explicitly saying there would be widespread job loss.

Instead, Ron said that AI technologies would act as a “co-pilot” to truck drivers for the “foreseeable future.” He said that “being a truck driver is not an easy job” and that it requires workers to drive up to 11 hours “just to make end’s meet.”

Ron said that “not a lot of people” want to be truck drivers and there is a national shortage of available trucking jobs. He believes that his company’s technology will make it possible for trucks to travel for many hours in a safer way than humans.

“Look, some portions of driving will be fully automated,” Ron said referring to the idea of self-driving trucks on freeways and highways. However, he said that there would still be a need for human truck drivers who need to steer the trucks when they drive through cities.

City streets pose a more difficult challenge for self-driving vehicles as they deal with more variables like pedestrians, stoplights, and intersections. He said that the “nature of the jobs will shift,” so that truck drivers would spend more time driving the trucks to their destinations in cities instead of long hours on freeways.

Still, Ron did not mention that Otto’s parent company Uber is actively working on self-driving cars that can drive throughout cities without the need for humans. If Uber were to eventually create autonomous vehicles that can drive safely in cities, there would be less of a need for human truck drivers to have to drive the vehicles in cities.

It should be noted that Uber has suspended test driving of its autonomous vehicles in Arizona after an accident occurred last Friday that left one of its test cars tipped over onto its side.

In February, a new self-driving truck startup Starsky Robotics debuted with technology that the company said would let truck drivers remotely control self-driving trucks when they have to drive through cities.