中國政府已經(jīng)在就如何應對美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普可能實施的貿(mào)易處罰措施，向智庫和政策顧問征求意見，盡管中國希望能通過商業(yè)式的協(xié)商解決問題，但也在為最糟糕的狀況做準備。

中國的政策顧問們認為，特朗普政府很可能針對鋼鐵、家具等行業(yè)以及國有企業(yè)提高關(guān)稅，因為中國在這些行業(yè)對美國享有巨大的貿(mào)易順差。

他們表示，中國可以通過尋找其他農(nóng)產(chǎn)品或機械以及制成品供應商，減少對美國的消費產(chǎn)品出口，比如手機或筆記本電腦等，來應對特朗普政府的措施。

他們認為，中國的其他選擇包括對在中國運營的美國大公司征稅或采取限制措施，或者限制它們進入中國迅速發(fā)展的服務業(yè)。

參與內(nèi)部討論的幾位消息人士稱，在去年美國大選期間，中國是特朗普各種言論特別針對的目標，考慮到中國對美國的巨大貿(mào)易順差，有官員預計兩國之間出現(xiàn)摩擦將不可避免。

中國國務院新聞辦公室和中國商務部并未回復置評要求。

“雙方仍有通過合作和協(xié)商解決問題的空間，而不是僅訴諸于報復手段，”一位要求匿名的政策顧問稱。

“不過，我們應準備好計劃，防止事情惡化。”

中國國務院總理李克強在上周表示，中國不希望看到和美國發(fā)生貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，希望雙方通過溝通來擴大共同利益。

美國財政部長史蒂文·努欽也在上周表示，特朗普政府無意打貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，但需要重新檢查與某些國家的貿(mào)易關(guān)系，以使其對美國工人更公平。

美國國務卿雷克斯·蒂勒森周末訪問中國時，未宣布美國方面的重大措施，也未就華盛頓在貿(mào)易方面的打算做出公開表態(tài)。

預計特朗普將于下月接待訪美的中國國家主席習近平。

但周六，在德國召開的20國集團（G20）財長會議結(jié)束后發(fā)表的公告，預示了未來的不確定性。兩天會議結(jié)束后，各國未能達成相互妥協(xié)，放棄了對保護全球貿(mào)易自由和開放的承諾，這默許了美國不斷抬頭的保護主義。

善意姿態(tài)

消息人士稱，中國將增加從美國的進口，并加大在美投資以創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)，向美國表達善意，但中國不會逆來順受地接受美國的任何單方面行動。

第二位政策顧問表示：“我們會制定應急計劃，來應對特朗普對中國最不利的政策。”

特朗普先前曾揚言對中國出口產(chǎn)品課征45%關(guān)稅，在競選期間也經(jīng)常宣稱將把中國列為匯率操縱國，盡管事實上中國當局最近幾年并未主動使人民幣貶值。

特朗普在2月23日接受路透社專訪時，形容中國是最大的匯率操縱國。

前述第一位顧問稱：“很難說他的看法有所改變，或是他變得更務實。”

努欽已承諾，將以更有系統(tǒng)的方式分析中國的匯率作法。

美國財政部以三個標準判斷某個國家是否操縱匯率以獲得貿(mào)易優(yōu)勢，中國只符合其中之一：對美國貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)超過200億美元。美國財政部將于4月公布下一份有關(guān)匯率操縱國的報告。

美國商務部上周二表示，中國2016年對美國的貿(mào)易順差下降201億美元至3,470億美元；而中國官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示的對美貿(mào)易順差規(guī)模更低。

其中一位消息人士稱，他認為特朗普不大可能給中國貼上匯率操縱國的標簽。

他表示：“如果他那么做，中國將放任人民幣不管，人民幣將大幅貶值。”

消息人士表示，只有當貿(mào)易關(guān)系急劇惡化之時，中國才可能考慮使人民幣貶值或者拋售一部分美國國債。

本月稍早，中國前商務部長高虎城在“兩會”期間表示，中國不害怕打貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，但希望避免貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

他說道：“我們愿意妥善處理好中美之間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系。一旦美方要采取什么措施，我們也不害怕，我們也會評估和分析這些措施，該出手時就要出手。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：路透社?

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

China's government has been seeking advice from its think-tanks and policy advisers on how to counter potential trade penalties from U.S. President Donald Trump, getting ready for the worst, even as they hope for business-like negotiations.

The policy advisers believe the Trump administration is most likely to impose higher tariffs on targeted sectors where China has a big surplus with the United States, such as steel and furniture, or on state-owned firms.

China could respond with actions such as finding alternative suppliers of agriculture products or machinery and manufactured goods, while cutting its exports of consumer staples such as mobile phones or laptops, they said.

Other options include imposing tax or other restrictions on big U.S. firms operating in China, or limiting their access to China's fast-growing services sector, they added.

Beijing was a particular target of Trump's rhetoric during last year's election campaign, and officials see some friction as inevitable due to China's large trade surplus, according to several sources involved in the internal discussions.

China's State Council Information Office and the Ministry of Commerce did not return requests for comment.

"There is still room for both sides to resolve problems through co-operation and consultation, rather than just resorting to retaliation," said a policy adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"But we should have plans in case things go wrong."

Premier Li Keqiang said last week that Beijing did not want to see a trade war with the United States and urged talks between both sides to achieve common ground.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also said last week that the Trump administration did not want trade wars, but that certain trade relationships needed re-examining to make them fairer for U.S. workers.

No major U.S. measures have been announced, and there were no public indications of Washington's intentions on trade at the weekend when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited China.

Trump is expected to host President Xi Jinping next month.

A glimpse of the uncertain future, however, came on Saturday in a communique after a meeting of finance ministers at the G20 in Germany, which dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open, acquiescing to an increasingly protectionist United States after the two-day meeting failed to yield a compromise.

GOODWILL GESTURE

The sources said China could step up some imports from the United States and boost its investment there to help create more jobs as a goodwill gesture, but would not meekly accept any unilateral U.S. action.

"We will have contingency plans to cope with the worst policies from Trump," said a second policy adviser.

Trump has previously threatened a 45% tariff on China's exports and frequently said on the campaign trail that he would label China a currency manipulator, even though Beijing has not been actively weakening the yuan in recent years.

In an interview with Reuters on Feb. 23, he declared China the "grand champions" of currency manipulation.

"It's hard to say his views have changed or he has become more pragmatic," said the first adviser.

Mnuchin has pledged a more methodical approach to analyzing Beijing's foreign exchange practices.

Under the three criteria set by the U.S. Treasury to determine whether a country is manipulating its currency for a trade advantage, China only meets one: running a trade surplus of more than $20 billion with the United States. The U.S. Treasury's next report on the issue is due in April.

China's surplus with the United States fell by $20.1 billion to $347 billion in 2016, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Tuesday, while Chinese data put it somewhat lower.

One of the sources said he thought it unlikely that Trump would label China a currency manipulator.

"If he does that, China will let the yuan go, and the yuan will fall sharply," the source said.

Weakening the yuan or dumping some of China's massive holdings of U.S Treasuries could be considered only when trade relations deteriorate sharply, the sources said.

Earlier this month, former commerce minister Gao Hucheng said during the annual meeting of parliament that China was not afraid of a trade war, though it hoped to avoid one.

"We are willing to deal with it properly, but we are not afraid. Once the U.S. side take certain measures, we will evaluate and analyze such measures, and take actions when necessary," Gao said.