美國罐頭湯生產(chǎn)商金寶湯公司投資健康食品，反而拖累了業(yè)績。為了改變零食經(jīng)營方式，谷物與零食生產(chǎn)商家樂氏可能裁員上千人。食品業(yè)巨頭通用磨坊的酸奶業(yè)務(wù)急劇下滑。美國最大食品企業(yè)卡夫食品零售業(yè)務(wù)拆分后的億滋國際去年曾對巧克力制造商好時發(fā)出收購要約，最后也草草罷手。

全行業(yè)萎靡不振的背景下，今年的紐約消費者分析師集團研討會（Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference，簡稱CAGNY）上，個個市值數(shù)十億美元的美國食品與飲料生產(chǎn)巨無霸企業(yè)——人們口中所謂的“食品巨頭”齊聚一堂，向投資者和華爾街分析師介紹2017年的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。研討會期間，各家掌門人的擔(dān)憂之情溢于言表。

“如今的市場環(huán)境非常動蕩，充滿不確定性，我入行35年來從沒見過。” 億滋國際的首席執(zhí)行官艾琳·羅森菲爾德如是說。通用磨坊的首席執(zhí)行官肯·鮑威爾坦言：“食品業(yè)銷售疲軟已成趨勢，而且競爭壓力增加，提升業(yè)績有心無力，說到底我們的工作是拿出成績，但今年真的拿不出手。”金寶湯首席執(zhí)行官還表示國際形勢風(fēng)云詭譎，英國退歐和美國大選結(jié)果都讓人大跌眼鏡，企業(yè)“很難站穩(wěn)腳跟。”

許多傳統(tǒng)品牌在成熟市場的銷售業(yè)績停滯不前，消費者又越發(fā)青睞健康食品，食品業(yè)巨頭增長前景不容樂觀。一些聰明的初創(chuàng)公司又在努力爭奪市場，爭奪商場超市的貨架，也在爭奪客戶的心，一邊還從風(fēng)險投資人手里融到數(shù)十億美元。通用磨坊、金寶湯和家樂氏都成立了自己的風(fēng)投機構(gòu)，想蹭上食品創(chuàng)業(yè)熱潮。可大部分的投資都只是小打小鬧，沒有一筆投資真正拉動銷售。

所以華爾街非常期待食品業(yè)來一次更大的交易，而不是不痛不癢的錦上添花。億滋國際曾試圖收購好時，合并兩大超級零食企業(yè)，但好時并不太歡迎。上上周卡夫亨氏提出收購聯(lián)合利華，資本市場又激動了一把，可在聯(lián)合利華拒絕后不久就宣布撤回了1430億美元收購要約。一些華爾街觀察人士認(rèn)為，得到巴西私募股權(quán)公司3G資本支持的卡夫亨氏可能卷土重來，發(fā)起收購聯(lián)合利華旗下食品與飲料業(yè)務(wù)，也有可能將收購的目標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)向另外一家食品巨頭。生產(chǎn)奧利奧和全麥餅干Triscuit的億滋國際常常被視為首選收購對象，該司曾是卡夫食品的一部分，于2012年獨立。（拆分后卡夫與亨氏合并。）

華爾街希望今年并未出席CAGNY的卡夫亨氏舉起收購大旗。國際信用評級機構(gòu)穆迪投資者服務(wù)公司指出，雖然通用磨坊、億滋國際等巨頭都在削減成本，但卡夫亨氏在削減成本方面“最為激進(jìn)”，其截至2017年末兩年內(nèi)降低成本15億美元的計劃已經(jīng)完成約三分之二，該司希望共實現(xiàn)節(jié)余30億美元。

即使不考慮卡夫亨氏，其他食品巨頭合并降費的潮流也勢不可擋。有分析人士認(rèn)為，啤酒業(yè)龍頭百威英博啤酒集團可能盯上碳酸飲料巨頭百事可樂和可口可樂。百威英博背后也有巴西3G資本支持，去年收購了英國同行SABMiller。事實上，百事可樂與可口可樂在美國市場均表現(xiàn)不俗，百事的健康食品創(chuàng)新收效明顯，可口可樂涉足牛奶和高端飲用水也小有斬獲。

另一些食品巨頭則是設(shè)法完善產(chǎn)品銷售宣傳活動。在CAGNY會議期間，今年預(yù)期銷售額約下滑4%的通用磨坊列舉了推動銷售恢復(fù)增長的三大行動：1）提高谷物銷量；2）美國市場的酸奶業(yè)務(wù)和中國市場業(yè)績恢復(fù)增長；3）投資哈根達(dá)斯、Old El Paso、Annie's和Larabar等食品品牌。家樂氏則宣布，旗下品客、Pop-Tarts和Cheez-It三個品牌銷量增長，但也承認(rèn)Raisin Bran、Mini-Wheats和Special K等六大谷物品牌近些年增長乏力。

億滋國際嚴(yán)重依賴吉百利、納貝斯克和Wheat Thins等零食品牌，所以消費者對零食態(tài)度轉(zhuǎn)變后遭受的打擊最嚴(yán)重。羅森菲爾德承認(rèn)，消費者偏好轉(zhuǎn)向了所謂的“健康趨勢”，公司要積極應(yīng)對。她解釋道：“簡單來說，全球消費者都更關(guān)注個人健康，對食品也更挑剔。”為積極參與健康零食競爭，億滋國際利用CAGNY平臺正式宣布推出Vea。新品牌主打健康路線，包括零食棒和薄脆餅干等。

食品巨頭轉(zhuǎn)型并不容易，金寶湯就歷經(jīng)坎坷。由于新鮮胡蘿卜加工飲品，Bolthouse Farms冷藏飲料以及Garden Fresh Gourmet均需求疲軟，該司最近宣布“生鮮”業(yè)務(wù)銷售下滑。金寶湯哪些業(yè)務(wù)有增長？數(shù)來數(shù)去還是傳統(tǒng)那些：湯品、Goldfish品牌的薄脆餅干和Pepperidge Farm品牌的曲奇。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：John Kell

譯者:夏林

Campbell Soup's bet on healthy foods is proving to be a drag. Kellogg may trim hundreds of jobs as it changes how the company delivers snacks. Yogurt sales are tumbling at General Mills. And Mondelez dropped a short-lived bid for chocolate giant Hershey.

It is amid this tumultuous backdrop that some of the nation's largest, multi-billion dollar food and beverage makers—an industry collectively known as Big Food—met to present their 2017 strategies to investors and Wall Street analysts at the critical Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference (known as CAGNY). And executives couldn’t hide their concerns.

"Today's environment is one of the most volatile and uncertain that I've seen in my 35 years in the industry," said Mondelez CEO Irene Rosenfeld. General Mills CEO Ken Powell said that while "weakening food industry sales trends and heightened competitive pressures have not helped us, at the end of the day, it is our job to deliver results and this year we haven't gotten that job done." And Campbell Soup (cpb) CEO Denise Morrison called out the unpredictability of the Brexit and U.S. presidential votes, saying it is "difficult to get your footing in the present."

Big Food makers have faced tough growth prospects with many legacy brands reporting stalled sales growth in mature markets and consumers tilting toward healthier fare. Savvy startups are winning market share, shelf space, and consumer's hearts—and they've also raised billions from venture capital investors. General Mills, Campbell Soup, and Kellogg (k) have all opened their own VC shops to participate in the startup foodie trend—though most of those investments have been tiny and haven't resulted in any meaningful sales jolts.

That explains why some on Wall Street are hopeful for a bigger deal than a bolt-on acquisition. Mondelez tried to buy Hershey to unite two snacking giants, but the chocolate maker wasn't too sweet on a possible takeover. Kraft Heinz (khc) made big waves when it tried to buy Unilever last week but walked away from the $143 billion deal quickly after a rejection. Some Wall Street observers think that 3G-backed Kraft Heinz might return to buy the food/beverage part of Unilever, or possibly move on to acquire another Big Food maker. Oreo and Triscuit maker Mondelez is often viewed as a top target, as it had been part of Kraft before a separation in 2012. (Kraft later merged with Heinz).

There's a reason why Wall Street wants Kraft Heinz—which didn't speak at CAGNY this year—to be an acquirer. Though General Mills, Mondelez and others are all cutting costs, Kraft Heinz has been "the most aggressive cost-cutter," according to Moody's Investors Service, and is already about two-thirds of the way through a two-year program to carve out $1.5 billion of costs through 2017, for a total of $3 billion in savings.

Even without factoring in Kraft Heinz, there's nothing that would stop the others from merging to bulk up and trim expenses. And some have speculated soda giants PepsiCo (pep) or Coca-Cola (ko) could be a target for mega brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev (bud), which is also backed by Brazilian private-equity firm 3G and last year acquired SABMiller. PepsiCo and Coca-Cola are actually performing well in the U.S., as the former's healthy food innovation is paying off while the latter's move into milk and expensive waters has been prudent.

Others are still trying to perfect their sales pitches. At CAGNY, General Mills—which is projecting a roughly 4% sales drop this year—outlined priorities to return to sales growth: 1) increase cereal sales, 2) return U.S. yogurt and China businesses to growth, 3) invest behind brands like H?agen-Dazs, Old El Paso, Annie's, and Larabar. Kellogg, meanwhile, touted some wins for Pringles, Pop-Tarts and Cheez-It but also admitted it has earned scant sales growth from the company's basket of "Big 6" cereal brands, which includes Raisin Bran, Mini-Wheats, and Special K in recent years.

Mondelez is perhaps the most exposed to indulgent snack trends as it relies heavily on brands like Cadbury, Nasbisco and Wheat Thins. But Rosenfeld admitted that the biggest shift in consumer spending that the snacking giant must confront is what she called the "well-being trend." "Simply put, people everywhere have become more attentive to their health and food choices," said Rosenfeld. To try to compete, Monelez used CAGNY as the platform to officially announce the launch of Vea—a snack bar and cracker brand it will pitch as healthier to consumers.

It isn't always easy for these Big Food manufacturers to undergo a makeover. Take the example of Campbell Soup. The company's "fresh" division has posted sales declines of late due to weakness for fresh carrots, Bolthouse Farms refrigerated beverages, and Garden Fresh Gourmet. What's been growing for Campbell? The old bread and butter: soups, Goldfish crackers, and Pepperidge Farm cookies.