零工經濟并不是因為優步（Uber）應用才涌現的。發達經濟體中有相當比例的勞動力都是自由職業者，這可以追溯到100年前，當時農業和手工業是人們最主要從事的行業。

如今，在沒有朝九晚五的“正規”工作的情況下，謀生的手段要豐富得多——因此，許多勞動力的情況與政府統計的數據并不相符。我們很難搞清究竟有多少人是自由職業者，他們在干什么，又是什么促使他們單干。為此，麥肯錫全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）調查了六個國家8,000人的工作生活。他們的有些回答令人驚訝。以下是我們的發現：

自由職業者的人數比你想象得更多

據麥肯錫全球研究院估計，美國和歐洲的勞動年齡人口中，有大約10%至15%都以獨立工作作為謀生的主要手段。另有10%至15%則會在業余從事獨立工作作為補充。在美國和歐盟的15個國家中，總共有1.62億人擁有正式工作的工資以外的收入。這不只是美國經濟才有的特色，在接受調查的歐洲國家中，自由職業者的規模和組成都與美國的驚人相似。

獨立工作的流行不只是經濟糟糕的表現

隨著大蕭條的影響逐漸消退，自由職業者的數量卻沒有任何減少的跡象。實際上，這群人中絕大部分都是自己選擇兼職的“臨時工”。其中一些人兼職是為了增加收入，另一些則是出于自己的興趣。

此外，獨立工作可能還有益于宏觀經濟。它往往是維持失業率的救生索。考慮到它有著靈活性和低門檻的重要特點，這有助于滿足美國和歐洲1億看護人、老年人等其他希望更多參與到工作中的人口。

大部分自由職業者并不是在坐等“真正”工作的到來

“大部分自由職業者都希望擁有傳統的工作，只是被雇主拒之門外而已”，這是一種普遍的誤解。在這次麥肯錫全球研究院的調查中，有大約70%的自由職業者表示這是他們自己的選擇。

這些主動選擇通過獨立工作獲得主要收入的“自由人”，對工作生活的滿意度要高于傳統工作的受訪者。他們認為這樣更靈活，可以當自己的老板，擁有更好的提升機遇，也能專注于自己喜歡的工作。對許多人而言，這種自主性顯然有其內在價值。

自由職業者并不都是工作不穩定、收入低的千禧一代

自由職業者橫跨各個年齡、教育背景、收入和行業。盡管各國25歲以下的人口中，有超過一半是自由職業者，但他們只占自由職業者總數的不足四分之一。另一方面，隨著嬰兒潮一代紛紛退休，老年自由職業者也值得關注。65歲以上的受訪者中，有超過一半已經成為了自由職業者。

盡管獨立工作主要集中在家政服務和交通運輸等低薪領域，不過醫生、治療師、律師、會計師和設計師等高收入人群也青睞自由職業。

自由職業者的數量和數字化程度在未來會進一步提高

數字市場可能會加快受雇員工向自由職業者的大范圍轉變。如今，只有6%的自由職業者會通過優步Uber、Blablacar、TaskRabbit或Upwork等平臺提供服務來掙錢。這類數字市場仍然在提高影響力，還有一些提供其他類型專門服務的平臺正在興起。

考慮到eBay的歷史只有大約20年，而如今有三分之二的個體賣家都在電子商務市場經營。利用無處不在的移動設備，數字平臺可以接觸到巨大的工作者和消費者群體，利用實時信息進行更有效的匹配。這種模式讓人們更容易開始自由職業，迅速找到工作，而不需要自己費盡口舌。

他們會這么做嗎？麥肯錫全球研究院調查了人們未來希望的工作方式，以及他們去踐行的可能性。通過獨立工作獲得主要收入的群體中，約有68%表示他們打算繼續下去，而希望獨立工作的人數則是傾向于傳統工作的人數的兩倍以上。此外，擁有自由職業的受訪者中，有近三分之一希望以后把全部時間投入兼職的零工。

綜合考慮這些回答，以及展現出工作欲望的龐大不活躍人口，我們可以推測，自由職業者的規模在未來幾年內可能翻番。然而，這很大程度上也取決于是否有合適的政策鋪平道路。全球各國的法院和監管部門都在努力應對這些新的工作模式產生的問題。顯然，有數千萬人不愿意把所有的工作時間都用于為別人打工。他們是否有能力成為自己的老板，關鍵在于決策者和私營企業有沒有做好開綠燈的準備。（財富中文網）

本文作者詹姆斯·曼伊卡和雅克·巴格因是麥肯錫全球研究院的董事，蘇珊·倫德則是合伙人。

作者：James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund

譯者：嚴匡正

The gig economy didn’t just spring into existence with the touch of an Uber app. A significant share of the workforce in advanced economies has always been self-employed, dating back 100 years to when farming and craftsmen were the predominant occupations.

Today the options for making a living without a “regular” 9-to-5 job are far more varied—and as a result, a large slice of the labor force doesn’t fit neatly into government statistics. It’s been hard to get a handle on how many people work independently, what they do, and what motivates them to go it alone. To fill in these gaps, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) asked 8,000 people across six countries about their working lives. Their responses provide some surprises. Here’s what we found:

The independent workforce is bigger than you think

About 10% to 15% of the working-age population in the United States and Europe make their primary living through independent work, MGI estimates. And another 10% to 15% do some kind of independent work on a supplemental basis. All told, that’s 162 million people working outside of formal payroll jobs across the U.S. and 15 nations across the European Union. This isn’t just a quirk of the US economy; the relative size and makeup of the independent workforce looks strikingly similar across the European countries that were surveyed.

The prevalence of independent work is not just a symptom of a bad economy

There’s no sign that the independent workforce is shrinking as the Great Recession fades into the rear-view mirror. In fact, the largest segment consists of “casual earners” who do work on the side by choice; while some take on extra work to boost their income, others are pursuing a personal interest.

Furthermore, independent work may actually have macroeconomic benefits. It’s often a lifeline that helps the unemployed stay afloat. And given that its key features are flexibility and low barriers to entry, it boost labor force participation among caregivers, seniors, and others among the 100 million inactive adults that report they want to work more in the U.S. and Europe.

Most independent workers are not just marking time until a “real” job comes along

It’s a popular myth that most gig workers want traditional jobs but are shut out of them. Roughly 70% of the independent workers MGI surveyed report working on their own by choice.

Those who earn their primary income independently and do so by choice—the so-called “free agents”— report higher levels of satisfaction with their work lives than respondents with traditional jobs. They cite the flexibility, the chance to be their own boss, better opportunities for advancement, and the ability to focus on work they enjoy. For many people, autonomy clearly has inherent value.

Independent workers aren’t all millennials stuck in precarious, low-wage work

The independent workforce spans all ages, education levels, incomes, and occupations. While more than half of those under age 25 participate in all countries, they make up less than one-quarter of the independent workforce. At the other end of the spectrum, the senior segment bears watching as waves of baby boomers continue to retire. Half or more of those over age 65 who work already do so by freelancing.

While independent work is prevalent in lower-paying fields such as household services and transportation, it’s also preferred by many highly paid professionals, including doctors, therapists, lawyers, accountants, and designers.

The independent workforce may grow—and grow more digital—in the future

Digital marketplaces could accelerate a broader shift from payroll jobs to independent work. Today only 6 percent of the independent workers who make money by offering their own services do so through platforms like Uber, Blablacar, TaskRabbit, or Upwork. But this share has the potential to take off. These types of digital marketplaces are still building awareness, and new ones are being launched to offer other types of specialized services.

Consider that eBay has been around for 20 years already—and today two-thirds of those who sell goods independently do so in an e-commerce marketplace. Building on the ubiquity of mobile devices, digital platforms can reach enormous pools of workers and customers, harnessing real-time information to make more efficient matches. This model makes it easy for people to get started and find work quickly without relying on word of mouth.

Will they actually do it? The MGI survey asked people how they want to work in the future—and how likely they are to pursue those aspirations. Some 68% of independent primary earners plan to continue, and for every one of them who would prefer a traditional job, more than two traditional workers hope to venture out on their own. Additionally, almost a third of casual earners envision turning their side gigs into full-time occupations.

Combining these responses with the large inactive populations stating a desire to work, it’s conceivable that the independent workforce could double in size in the years ahead. But a lot depends on whether the right frameworks are put in place to ease the way. In countries around the world, courts and regulators are grappling with questions surrounding these new working models. It’s becoming clear that tens of millions of people don’t want to spend their entire working lives as someone else’s employee. Their ability to become their own bosses depends in large part on whether policy makers and the private sector are ready to make this path feasible.

James Manyika and Jacques Bughin are directors of the McKinsey Global Institute where Susan Lund is a partner.