近來，“股神”巴菲特大幅增持蘋果股票的決定令整個投資界大感意外。因為幾十年來，這位“奧馬哈先知”收購的股票主要是在他看來最優秀的藍籌銀行股，以及一些優秀的消費性品牌，比如富國銀行、可口可樂和卡夫亨氏等等，對波動性較大的科技股則一向敬而遠之。

在大多數分析師和權威人士看來，巴菲特在蘋果身上投入巨注其實是很好解釋的。很多分析人士認為，增持蘋果股票恰恰是巴菲特投資哲學的體現，因為它是一支貨真價實的價值股，具備很強的收益能力，而且價位也相當劃算。

但收購蘋果股票真的是巴菲特的一招好棋嗎？要想知道答案，首先讓我們來深入分析一些相關數據。

巴菲特是從2016年上半年開始逐步囤積蘋果股票的，真正的大規模購入則是從去年第四季度開始，他的伯克希爾-哈撒韋控股公司當季將持有的蘋果股票擴倉三倍，達到5,740萬股，使蘋果股票成為伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司的第十大投資。雖然我們還不清楚伯克希爾-哈撒韋在第四季度究竟花了多少錢用于收購蘋果股票，但巴菲特還是展示了他對時機的精準把握：從去年9月30日至今，蘋果的股價已經飆升了19.5%，首次創紀錄地突破了36美元，市值猛增了1,150億美元，達到7,100億美元。光是這段時間吸入的1,150億美元資金，就已經相當于美國四大航空公司美國航空、聯合大陸航空、達美航空和西南航空的總和——這四大航空公司的股票也是巴菲特近來非常青睞的。

巴菲特之所以對蘋果股票青眼有加，或許是因為蘋果已經從一只增長型股票變成了一只價值型股票，也就是說你每掏1美元購買它的股份，都能獲得豐厚的收益。從2016年1月1日到12月31日（蘋果內部的2016財年截止到9月結束），蘋果的盈利為451億美元。它的市盈率是比較適中的15.7倍，遠低于標普20多倍的平均值。而且在2016年上半年至年中，也就是巴菲特剛剛開始收購蘋果股票時，蘋果的市盈率比這還要低得多，僅在11倍左右。

但近幾年，蘋果公司的盈利水平并未明顯增長。早在2012自然年度，蘋果的盈利就達到了417億美元，也就是說，從2012年到2016年，蘋果的年利潤增長率僅有2%，勉強與通脹率持平。從2015到2016自然年度，蘋果的利潤水平甚至下降了16個百分點。可以說蘋果基本已經承認它目前沒有什么新的領域可以投資了。2016財年，蘋果將超過100%的利潤用于分紅和回購，而不是深耕工廠和產品以促進未來的增長。

考慮到蘋果近幾年的表現乏善可陳，未來的增長前景也不高，蘋果的低市盈率也就不足為怪了。從它當前的市盈率反向推算，它的凈收益率約為6.4%，這也就是投資者們可以預期的投資回報率。你可以把這個比率看作一張債券的利息收益，只不過還要根據通脹進行調整。因為蘋果的股價至少還是會隨CPI同步增長的。

對該數字進行調整后，你的預期回報率就是8.4%。

那么，這個回報率對蘋果來說現實嗎？很難說。目前蘋果的股息率約為1.7%，這也是它的預期回報率的一部分，而預期回報率的其余部分則來自利潤的增長，還有很小的部分來自于通脹，這兩者總共占了6.7%。如果未來六年里，蘋果的利潤真的能以6.7%的速度增長，那么到2023年年初，蘋果的利潤將從上一財年不到460億美元的基礎上增長至660億美元。但你要記住，近來蘋果的利潤實際上是在下降的。

此外還有兩個問題。首先：即便蘋果真的能夠達到7%的利潤增長率，也就是說明年蘋果的利潤將增長30億美元，并且到2023年之前，平均每年增長約50億美元，那么投資者也僅僅將獲得8.4%的回報率。這遠遠低于巴菲特一般持有的股票動輒兩位數百分比的回報率。

其次，蘋果基本上是一個靠著一款產品打天下的公司，而且其所在市場的競爭十分激烈。公司的銷售額有三分之二來自于iPhone，而2016財年，iPhone的銷量足足下跌了12%。

近來蘋果股價的強勢上漲，主要是由于即將于今年下半年推出的新iPhone給投資者帶來的信心。不過我們并不清楚蘋果的實驗室里還在研究哪些其它產品。以蘋果的規模，單靠一款新iPhone，是不太可能推動利潤達到7%以上的。隨著亞馬遜和谷歌等企業紛紛進軍個人AI和智能家居領域，蘋果可以騰挪的空間也將被日益擠壓。

蘋果還可以采用另一種方法，不再追求研發另一種能夠改變游戲格局的產品，而是將所有現金反饋給投資者——比如通過大規模股票回購等方式。但這種方法同樣也不能解決問題。即便是蘋果這樣超級土豪的公司，既要達到投資者的預期收益，又想繼續保障公司的增長，它的現金也是達不到的。

最近，巴菲特多年的合作伙伴、伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司副董事長查理?芒格面對媒體和投資界的普遍質疑表示：“我們收購蘋果和幾家航空公司股票的消息近來受到了媒體的關注。我并不認為這是我們瘋了，而是我們為適應愈加困難的業務而做出的調整。”他表示，伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司不再像過去那樣一味收購高回報的股票，“現在我們也會爭取一些小的優勢。”

總之，收購蘋果股票是一個很有風險的賭注。其股價的大漲、龐大的市值，加上不太明朗的增長前景，預示著它的利潤不會有太多增長空間。巴菲特和芒格通過此次收購蘋果股票已經大賺了這一筆，這充分證明“股神”二字的確名下無虛。問題是從今往后，蘋果股票是否還值得繼續持有。

但對于投資者來說，更大的問題是：即便是像蘋果這樣一支缺乏吸引力且價格已經很高的股票，只要“股神”認為他值得購買，整個投資界就會堅定不移地跟著買。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Warren Buffett just astounded the investment world by welcoming Apple into his exclusive club of favored stocks. For decades, the Oracle of Omaha has stuck mainly to what he knows best, blue-chip banks and great consumer brands such as Wells Fargo, Coca-Cola, and Kraft Heinz, and mainly shunned the churning, science-driven field of technology.

According to most analysts and pundits, Buffett's enormous bet on Apple makes perfect sense. Apple, they argue, is the epitome of what he covets, a deep value stock offering strong earnings power at a bargain price.

But does Apple really fit the Buffett profile? To find out, let's take a deep dive into the numbers.

Buffett began accumulating Apple shares in early 2016. The gigantic purchases, however, came in the fourth quarter of last year, when his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, more than tripled its stake to 57.4 million shares, making Apple one of Berkshire's top ten investments. Although the exact prices Berkshire paid in the fourth quarter are unknown, Buffett displayed quicksilver timing: Apple's shares have surged 19.5% since Sept. 30 to a record price of over $36, lifting its market cap to $710 billion, an increase of $115 billion. That gain alone equals the total market value of America's four major airlines, American Airlines, United Continental, Delta and Southwest, all of which Buffett has also been eagerly buying of late.

Buffett may like Apple because it's clearly evolved from a growth play into a value stock, meaning that for every dollar you pay for its shares, you get a rich helping of earnings. For the four quarters ended Dec. 31 (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), Apple posted $45.1 billion in earnings. So its price-to-earnings ratio is a modest 15.7, well below the S&P average of well over 20. Keep in mind that Apple's P/E was a lot lower, as low as 11 in fact, during the period when Buffett was first buying it in early-to-mid-2016.

Apple's earnings, however, aren't growing. It made $41.7 billion in calendar 2012, meaning that profits have waxed just 2% a year since then, matching inflation. And its profits actually fell 16% from calendar 2015 to 2016. Apple is essentially acknowledging that it doesn't have new places to invest. For fiscal 2016, it paid out over 100% of its profits in dividends and buybacks rather than plowing billions into plants and products to drive future growth.

Given its plodding record, and low prospects, for future growth, Apple probably deserves its low multiple. Its current P/E translates to an earnings yield—the inverse of the P/E—of 6.4%. That's how much investors are expecting Apple to pay them each year. Think of that return like the interest payment on a bond, except adjusted for inflation, since Apple's prices will rise at least with the CPI.

Adjusted the number for, and you have an expected return of 8.4%.

Is that expected return realistic for the iPhone maker. Not quite. Apple has a dividend yield of 1.7%. That's part of its expected return. The rest has to come from earnings increases, and a little bit from inflation, for a total of 6.7%. If Apple's profits do expand at 6.7% for the next six years, it will boast profits of $66 billion at the start of 2023, up from nearly $46 billion in its last fiscal year. Remember, Apple's earnings have been falling lately.

The first problem: Even if it manages to hike profits almost 7% a year, and that means adding $3 billion next year, and almost $5 billion annually by around 2023, investors will only get a 8.4% return. That's far from the double-digit gains Buffett usually pockets.

Second, Apple is essentially a one-product company in a highly competitive market. Almost two-thirds of its sales flow from the iPhone, and sales of the smartphone dropped 12% in fiscal 2016.

Indeed, part of the excitement around Apple's stock is the new iPhone that will be out later this year. But it's unclear what other products are rising in Apple's labs. Given Apple's size, new iPhones alone are not likely to boost profits in the 7% range going forward. And with Amazon and Google moving into the personal AI technology and smart home space, that's leaving Apple less room to maneuver.

Apple could go the other way, and stop looking for the next big thing and just start returning all its cash to investors, likely in the form of big buy backs. But that's not going to solve the problem, either. There's not enough of it to meet investors expected return, and continue to fund Apple's growth.

Recently, Buffett's longtime partner Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger acknowledged the widespread doubts expressed in the media and investment community. "We appear in the press with Apple and a bunch of airlines. I don't think we've gone crazy," declared Munger. "We're adapting to a business that has gotten more difficult." Instead of pocketing big, easy returns as in the past, he says, "Now we get little edges."

All told, Apple is a risky bet. Its big surge in price, gigantic market cap, and less than stellar outlook for growth indeed leave little margin for gain. Buffett and Munger deserve kudos for making lots of money on Apple. The issue is whether it's worth owning from here on.

But the the bigger problem for investors is this: The investment world has gotten really, really tough if a stock with Apple's singular lack of appeal, especially at these prices, looks like a buy to the world's most fabled investor.