過去十年間，人們將失業歸罪于開放市場和全球貿易的發展，但全球各大公司的CEO們則認為，罪魁禍首是機器的不斷發展和進步。

今年1月，商界領袖在達沃斯參加本年度世界經濟論壇（WEF）時，一方面暢談科技促進生產力提高所帶來的好處，另一方面也警醒人們，需更加重視科技給工作帶來的間接損害。

機器人、無人駕駛汽車、人工智能和3D打印等技術意味著越來越多的工種將面臨被取代的風險，無論是出租車司機，還是醫療保健專業人員。

例如，阿迪達斯打算利用3D打印技術完成部分跑鞋的制造。

慧與公司（Hewlett Packard Enterprise）的CEO梅格·惠特曼表示，“工作機會要么會消失，要么會發生演化。這一變革將影響我們每個人，且沒有止境，不分階層。”

一些唐納德·特朗普和脫歐的支持者們期待，新一屆政府的政策能夠將本地失去的工作機會帶回到美國鐵銹地帶（制造帶）和英國北部工業區，而世界經濟論壇的年度風險報告顯示，據經濟學家估計,美國制造業中86%的失業是由生產力提高造成的。

安永咨詢公司（EY）董事長馬克·溫伯格最近曾表示，“科技是個大問題，而我們卻拒不承認。”他認為我們過去有一種傾向，即總是把問題歸咎于貿易伙伴。

在當今政治背景下，CEO們為了跟上指數級增長的科技發展步伐，在對待員工長期培訓方面，不得不更加謹慎。

微軟CEO薩蒂亞·納德拉向路透社記者表示，“我認為在目前所處的時代，我們一生中都不得不尋找其他職業道路。”

過去十年間，科技發展是導致工作機會喪失的首要因素。達信保險經紀公司（Marsh）的全球風險官約翰·德茲克對此觀點的認同有過之而無不及。

“這將帶來挑戰，特別考慮到當今的政治背景。”德茲克表示，他曾協助撰寫世界經濟論壇的報告。

比起通過加強國界管理來限制移民，如何應對科技對就業造成的破壞性影響可能更加難以掌控。

在短期內，雖然很多高科技技術仍然比低技術或中等技術勞動力的成本要高，但隨著成本下降，這種轉變很有可能會加速。

不斷擴大的差距

參加達沃斯論壇的各公司高管表示，科技進步要求政府、企業和學術機構共同培養教育程度更高和具備更高技術能力的工作人員。

而這種向技術人員的轉變也進而擴大了收入差距，并加劇了發展的不平衡性。

萬寶盛華（ManpowerGroup）人力資源公司CEO喬納斯·普萊辛表示，在美國，接受過大學教育人員中，失業率為大約2-2.5%，而在技能水平較低或不具備技能的人中，失業率高達9-10%。

普萊辛說：“事實上，將禁止自動化作為制造業發展的一部分，并不在我們的討論范圍內。”

他指出，在丹麥和意大利等國實施的政策中，一項重點內容就是增強工人的就業能力。

“（針對失業工人的問題）如果我們不承擔起責任，差距只會變得越來越大。”寶潔公司（Procter & Gamble）首席執行官大衛·泰勒說。

體力和腦力

對于世界經濟論壇上所指的“第四次工業革命”帶來的就業風險，其范圍尚不明確。“第四次工業革命”模糊了物理、數字和生物領域的界限。

牛津大學2013年的一項研究表明，近一半的美國就業機會面臨被取代的風險，而2015年福雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）則預測，到2025年，就業崗位的凈減少率僅為7%，這是因為某些消失的崗位將會被新崗位所替代。

福雷斯特預測，到2019年，四分之一的工作將交由軟件機器人、實體機器人或客戶服務自動化完成。

即便是精英階層也無法做到高枕無憂。

“盡管CEO們有理由相信我們不會被人工智能所取代，”倫敦勞埃德保險公司（Lloyd's of London）的印加·比爾說道。

“但我確信會有這么一天的！” （財富中文網）

作者：路透社

譯者：司慧杰/汪皓

Open markets and global trade have been blamed for job losses over the last decade, but global CEOs say the real culprits are increasingly machines.

And while business leaders gathered at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos relish the productivity gains technology can bring, they warned this week that the collateral damage to jobs needs to be addressed more seriously.

From taxi drivers to healthcare professionals, technologies such as robotics, driverless cars, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing mean more and more types of jobs are at risk.

Adidas, for example, aims to use 3-D printing in the manufacture of some running shoes.

"Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this revolution is going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going to affect everyone," said Meg Whitman, chief executive of Hewlett Packard Enterprise

So while some supporters of Donald Trump and Brexit may hope new government policies will bring lost jobs back to America's Rust Belt or Britain's industrial north, economists estimate 86% of U.S. manufacturing job losses are actually down to productivity, according to the WEF's annual risks report.

"Technology is the big issue and we don't acknowledge that." Mark Weinberger, chairman of consultancy EY, said recently, arguing there was a tendency to always blame trading partners.

The political backdrop is prompting CEOs to take more seriously the challenge of long-life training of workforces to keep up with the exponential growth of technological advances.

"I think what we're reaching now is a time when we may have to find alternative careers through our lifetime," Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella told Reuters.

Over the last decade, more jobs have been lost to technology than any other factor, and John Drzik, head of global risk at insurance broker Marsh, expects more of the same.

"That is going to raise challenges, particularly given the political context." Drzik, who helped compile the WEF report, said.

Compared to clamping down on immigration by tightening borders, dealing with the impact of technology destroying jobs is something that is perhaps even less easily controlled.

For while many advanced technologies remain more expensive than low- or medium-skilled labour in the near term, the shift is likely to accelerate as costs come down.

Widening Gap

Technological advancements require governments, businesses and academic institutions to develop more educated and highly skilled workforces, executives in Davos said.

But this shift to skilled workers also widens the income gap and fuels growing inequality.

Jonas Prising, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup, noted that U.S. unemployment is only about 2-2.5% among college-educated people but 9-10% among those with low or no skills.

"The idea that we would ban automation as part of an evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part of the discussion," Prising said.

He pointed to policies in countries like Denmark and Italy, where there is a focus on employability of workers.

"If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger." Procter & Gamble Chief Executive David Taylor said.

Brawn and Brain

The scope of the employment risk from what the WEF calls the "fourth industrial revolution" which "blurs the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres" is unclear.

A University of Oxford study in 2013 said nearly half of U.S. jobs were at risk, while in 2015 Forrester Research predicted a net loss of only 7% by 2025, as some lost jobs will be replaced with new ones.

Forrester predicts that by 2019, one-quarter of all job tasks will be offloaded to software robots, physical robots, or customer self-service automation.

Even the corner office may not be safe.

"CEOs feel reasonably confident we are not going to be replaced by artificial intelligence," Inga Beale, CEO of the Lloyd's of London insurance market, said.

"But I'm sure there will be a time!"