無人駕駛大戰,究竟誰占鰲頭?
論起無人駕駛車領域的競爭,可以說既是暗戰,也是公開的交鋒。 汽車制造商,科技公司,還有創業公司經常通報目前的狀況。但沒有數據支持很難驗證各公司的說法,也沒法判斷到底哪家公司的無人駕駛技術最先進。 加州汽車管理局綜合了11家汽車和科技公司的資料后公布了一系列報告,向公眾介紹了自動駕駛技術的發展狀況。 如果想從加州汽車管理局申請測試許可,汽車公司得提交年度報告詳細描述所謂的“脫離自動模式”情況,這個術語意思是測試中出現多少次因為軟件問題或出于安全原因,駕駛員不得已恢復人工駕駛。例如,如果遇到其他車輛逆向行駛,或因行人、騎自行車的人違反交通規則而恢復人工駕駛。 加州汽車管理局周三發布的年報中提供了一些信息,從中能看出汽車制造商和相關企業在無人駕駛車大戰中的狀況。其中脫離自動模式次數并非唯一的指標。各家企業的無人駕駛車測試地點包括公開道路、研究中心和位于其他州的本公司場地。但對于確實提交報告的企業,確實能從中看出技術開發狀況,從而了解發展動向。 Waymo(谷歌)是領頭羊 隨便掃一眼加州汽車管理局的報告就能看出,谷歌旗下的自動駕駛項目Waymo在加州公開道路上測試的總里程數遙遙領先。如今Waymo還單獨成立了公司。 數字非常驚人,而且能看出該公司已經升級了自動駕駛軟件。 2016年Waymo公司在公開道路的測試里程數近63.6萬英里(約合102.4萬公里),較之前一年增長了49%。而且,“脫離自動模式”從2015年的341次降到去年的124次,降幅達64%。 報告顯示,總體來看,一年內每一千英里自動轉人工操作的比例從0.80降至0.20。值得一提的是,Waymo選擇的測試路段多為比較復雜的城市和郊區路面,而不是沒有兒童和自行車,交通基礎設施也更簡單的高速路面。 “每次出現脫離自動駕駛事件后,我們都會借機改進完善汽車(我們設定的脫離自動駕駛標準非常保守),正因如此我們的技術進步很快,”Waymo公司自動駕駛技術負責人德米特里·多爾戈夫在媒體上一篇文章中寫道。“對各種突發情況,我們可以即時創建上百種,有時甚至上千種相關場景,根據該區域其他道路參與者的不同位置和速度提供對應方案。” 通用汽車在加速趕超 從這份報告中也能看出大公司(以及相關資本和資源)如何推動創業公司成長。創業公司Cruise Automation是舊金山一家無人駕駛車技術開發商。2016年通用汽車出資超過10億美元將其收購,此前該公司只能用一些日產Leaf電動車測試。 數字本身就能講故事。2016年1月,Cruise只有三輛日產Leaf電動車做測試。4月測試車增加到五輛。一個月后,測試車代號為Scarlet和Quicksilver等的日產Leaf電動車逐漸減少,測試車變成了2017款雪佛蘭Bolt EV電動車。 加州汽車管理局報告顯示,8月時,日產Leaf已經完全不見,Cruise已經有至少九輛雪佛蘭Bolt電動車,測試很頻繁,代號類似叉角羚、山貓、鴨嘴獸和獵豹等。到了11月,該公司旗下已有20輛注冊測試車。 特斯拉已將無人駕駛當成公司戰略 2015年10月,特斯拉推出了半自動駕駛系統Autopilot,由此成為最先進的駕駛輔助軟件開發商。Autopilot由感應器和軟件組成,能協助完成路邊停車、方向控制以及在高速路上變道。這款半自動駕駛系統一直在改進,領先其他制造商。 2016年之前,特斯拉一直沒在加州公開道路測試過自動駕駛技術。2016年出現變化。汽車制造商和能源公司特斯拉提交加州汽車管理局的報告顯示,2016年已開始在加州公開道路上測試四輛自動駕駛車。 有些汽車制造商基本沒怎么在加州測試,或者測試很少 有21家公司,從大眾到特斯拉到Zoox和Drive.ai等等初創公司申請過許可,在公開道路上測試無人駕駛技術。但只有11家公司提交了報告,其中還有一些報告內容只是聲明沒在公開道路上測試。 旗下包括豪車品牌奧迪的大眾集團美國公司就沒在加州公開道路測試。日本的本田也一樣。本田表示目前在加州康特拉科斯達一處非公開的封閉道路上測試。寶馬目前在美國僅有一臺測試車。 其他在加州公開道路測試的企業包括: ? 博世:三臺測試車 ? 德爾福:兩臺測試車 ? 福特:兩臺測試車 ? 奔馳:一臺測試車 ? 日產:五臺測試車 這些數字并不能代表某家企業實際的測試情況。很多制造商、科技公司和供應商都在其他州以及封閉道路上測試。舉例來說,福特發言人透露,2016年其測試車隊從10輛增加到30輛,而且到12月車隊組建尚未完成。測試車隊有多項工程目標,不只包括道路測試,而且測試地點包括亞利桑那州、加州和密歇根州。 不過要指出的是,過去加州一直是無人駕駛車開發中心。一些制造商在加州測試數量低可能因為正逐漸撤出加州,在其他更容易獲得許可或是離制造商總部更近的州測試。 最大的問題是,其他沒提交報告的公司都在忙什么? 報告內容非常不統一 報告并無統一標準,有些脫離自動駕駛的報告只有短短兩頁,有些像Waymo提交的則超過34頁。 有些公司會追根溯源,提供脫離自動駕駛的具體地點和細節。有些則草草說明總里程,出現幾次脫離自動駕駛,原因說明也只有一兩段。 結果呢?由于報告形式各異,很難準確判斷各家企業在開發無人駕駛技術方面的具體情況。 作者:Kisrten Korsec 譯者:夏林 |
The race to develop autonomous vehicles can be described as a dual exercise in secrecy and bombastic theater. Automakers, tech companies, and startups are often quick to share where they stand in that race. But without the data it's impossible to vet those claims or accurately evaluate which company has the most robust autonomous vehicle technology. The California Department of Motor Vehicles released a series of reports Wednesday from 11 automakers and tech companies that gave the public a peek at their development of self-driving car technology. Any company issued a testing permit from the California DMV must submit an annual report detailing its so-called "disengagements," a jargon term that means the number of times drivers have had to take control of a car because the software failed or for safety reasons. For example, a driver might take control if it encounters another car traveling the wrong way down the road or a pedestrian or cyclist acts erratically. These annual reports, which the DMV released Wednesday, provide some insight into where automakers and tech companies stand in the race to develop autonomous vehicles. It's not the only measure, however. Companies are testing self-driving vehicle technology on public roads, research centers, and their own testing facilities other states. But for the companies that did submit reports, it does provide a hint of where they stand and what they're up to. Waymo (Google) is leading It takes only the quickest of glances at the reports filed with the California DMV to see that Waymo, the Google self-driving car project that spun out to become its own company, is way ahead in terms of total miles tested on public roads in California. The numbers are striking—and show that the company has improved its self-driving software. Waymo vehicles drove nearly 636,000 miles on public roads in 2016, a 49% increase from the previous year. And yet, the number of "disengagements" fell nearly 64% from 341 in 2015 to 124 last year. In all, the total rate of disengagements per 1,000 miles driven fell from 0.80 to 0.20 over that one year time period, according to the report. It's also notable that Waymo tests in more complex urban and suburban environments, and not highways where there are fewer variables such as children, cyclists, and traffic infrastructure. "We’ve been able to make dramatic improvements to our technology because we use each of these disengages to teach and refine our car (that’s why we set our thresholds for disengages conservatively), Dmitri Dolgov, head of self-driving tech at Waymo, wrote in a post on Medium. "For each event we can create hundreds?—?and sometimes thousands?—?of related scenarios in simulation, varying the parameters such as the position and speed of other road users in the area." GM is quickly accelerating This report is a study in how a big company (and capital and resources that come with it) can catapult a startup forward. Cruise Automation is a San Francisco-based developer of autonomous vehicle technology. And up until it was acquired by General Motors in March 2016 for more than $1 billion, the startup was testing its technology using a few Nissan Leaf vehicles. The numbers tell the story. In January 2016, Cruise was testing three Nissan Leafs. That number topped out at five in April. A month later, the Nissan Leafs—with names like Scarlet and Quicksilver—began to drop off and 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EVs come onto the testing circuit. By August, the Nissan Leafs were gone and Cruise had at least nine Chevy Bolts—with names like Pronghorn, Lynx, Platypus, and Cheetah—actively testing. By November, the company had 20 licensed vehicles in its testing lineup, according to the report filed with the California DMV. Tesla has made it official Tesla's semi-autonomous driving system Autopilot, which rolled out in October 2015, has made it a leader in advanced driver assistance. Autopilot, a combination of sensors and software, is capable of parallel parking, steering and lane changing on highways. The semi-autonomous system has continued to improve, pushing it ahead of other automakers. And yet, until 2016 the company wasn't testing self-driving vehicle technology on public roads in California. That has changed. The automaker and energy company started testing four self-driving cars on California’s public roads in 2016, according to its disengagement report filed with the California DMV. Some automakers didn't do any—or very little—testing in California There are 21 companies—from Volkswagen and Tesla to startups like Zoox and Drive.ai—that have been issued permits to test self-driving vehicles on public roads. Only 11 filed reports, and some of those reports simply acknowledged that they did not test any vehicles on public roads. Volkswagen Group of America, which includes luxury brand Audi, didn't do any public testing in California. Honda didn't either. Honda says it currently tests on a closed circuit, non-public course in Contra Costa County in California. BMW had just one vehicle testing in the U.S. Other tallies of companies testing on public roads in California: ? Bosch: three autonomous vehicles ? Delphi: two autonomous vehicles ? Ford: two autonomous vehicles ? Mercedes: one autonomous vehicle ? Nissan: five autonomous vehicles These low numbers don't necessarily reflect the level of testing by a particular company. Automakers, tech companies, and suppliers are testing in a variety of other states and on closed courses. ur overall For instance, Ford's overall fleet grew from 10 to 30 vehicles in 2016, although the build was not complete until December, according to a spokesperson. Those vehicles are used for a variety of engineering work, not just on-road testing and are spread throughout locations in Arizona, California, and Michigan. It should be noted, that California has been focal point in the past for autonomous vehicle development. The low numbers could mean companies are pulling back from California and choosing to test in states with more permissive rules or closer to an automaker's base of operations. The big question is what are the other 10 companies that didn't file reports up to? These reports are wildly inconsistent There is no standard, which means the disengagement reports vary from two pages to more than 34 from Waymo. Some companies dig into the details, providing the location and specifics of a disengagement. Others simply state total mileage, the number of disengagements, and a brief one or two sentence explanation. The upshot? It's difficult to provide an accurate assessment of where these companies are in the race to develop autonomous vehicle technology because of this variability. |