我剛開(kāi)始工作的時(shí)候，鍵盤是唯一的用戶交互工具。早期電腦例如蘋果二代機(jī)和最早的IBM個(gè)人電腦上都只有鍵盤。1984年，蘋果推出的麥金塔電腦采用了圖形用戶界面，從此鼠標(biāo)為大眾熟知，一種全新的與電腦交互方式就此誕生。

我們這種老用戶適應(yīng)電子桌面和鼠標(biāo)是要花點(diǎn)時(shí)間的，但到最后也都慢慢習(xí)慣了。現(xiàn)在幾乎所有的電子設(shè)備都采用了圖形用戶界面，要么用鼠標(biāo)，要么用手寫筆，也有些用手指當(dāng)輸入設(shè)備。（亞馬遜的Echo之類有語(yǔ)音助手的設(shè)備不算在內(nèi)。）

但經(jīng)歷了超過(guò)三十年的鼠標(biāo)鍵盤時(shí)代后，如今我們?cè)谟脩艚缑嫔嫌瓉?lái)了另一重要突破：虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)。兩者有望在未來(lái)10-15年成為主流的計(jì)算機(jī)交互方式，推動(dòng)改革中硬件和軟件創(chuàng)新。

不過(guò)，變革不可能一蹴而就。近來(lái)《財(cái)富》有篇文章就談到了虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)頭盔的應(yīng)用周期：

“雖然新款索尼游戲機(jī)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)眼鏡，微軟的HoloLens，諾蘭·布什納爾的新款虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備引發(fā)的討論熱鬧非凡，但過(guò)去一年里只有6%的美國(guó)人真正擁有虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備。

根據(jù)戰(zhàn)略分析公司研究，到今年年底，約1140萬(wàn)美國(guó)人會(huì)花錢購(gòu)買虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備，除了之前提到的品牌，其他選擇還包括谷歌的Cardboard或HTC的Vive等等。

這是個(gè)很好的開(kāi)始，可以順利向大眾推介虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)。不過(guò)現(xiàn)實(shí)中人們并不喜歡戴著眼鏡與電腦互動(dòng)。有現(xiàn)成的例子，看谷歌眼鏡的起起伏伏，以及戴3D眼鏡才能觀看的電視受歡迎程度就知道了。所以新技術(shù)走向主流還需要時(shí)間。而且我相信，大多數(shù)人都會(huì)通過(guò)移動(dòng)設(shè)備首次體驗(yàn)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)，現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上有不少價(jià)格低廉的智能手機(jī)配套頭盔，類似三星的Gear VR以及谷歌的Daydream View。

所有業(yè)內(nèi)大公司都在花大力氣研究虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)或增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)，還有些雙管齊下。Facebook旗下有虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)公司Oculus，索尼最近推出了游戲機(jī)配套的虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)眼鏡，微軟有HoloLens等等，不一而足。但我認(rèn)為增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)走向大眾最終還得靠蘋果。雖然蘋果在虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)方面的策略一直秘而不宣，但首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫(kù)克已多次透露對(duì)增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的興趣，暗示下一代iPhone上就會(huì)應(yīng)用，沒(méi)準(zhǔn)今年秋天就能看到。

的確，蘋果在虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)產(chǎn)品方面動(dòng)作稍顯遲緩，不過(guò)蘋果向來(lái)不喜歡沖在市場(chǎng)前面，而是讓同行用新產(chǎn)品先試水，然后推出體驗(yàn)更好的產(chǎn)品。蘋果曾是圖形用戶界面和鼠標(biāo)的先驅(qū)，如果能成功推動(dòng)下一代計(jì)算機(jī)交互方式走向大眾，也會(huì)很有歷史意義。此外，如果蘋果做好增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)，也可以借此提升銷售，滿足公司不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求。

話說(shuō)回來(lái)，繼續(xù)用鍵盤鼠標(biāo)也談不上錯(cuò)。但將交互水平提升個(gè)檔次，沒(méi)準(zhǔn)能以全新方式使用電腦。基于虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)和增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)是用戶交互設(shè)計(jì)的下一步，很快就會(huì)改變每個(gè)人的生活和工作方式。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Tim Bajarin

譯者：Charlie

蒂姆·巴扎林是科技行業(yè)頂尖顧問(wèn)、分析師和未來(lái)主義者之一，主要關(guān)注領(lǐng)域?yàn)閭€(gè)人電腦和消費(fèi)科技。巴扎林1981年加入Creative Strategies至今，現(xiàn)擔(dān)任公司總裁。他曾任行業(yè)顧問(wèn)，向業(yè)內(nèi)頂尖的硬件軟件公司提供分析報(bào)告。

For the early part of my technology career, keyboards were the only user interface available. Even with early machines like the Apple II and the first IBM PCs, it was keyboards-only. But in 1984, Apple’s Macintosh introduced the graphical user interface and mouse to a wide audience, and a whole new way to interact with a computer was born.

Us old-timers took a while to get the hang of digital desktops and mice. But eventually, using them became second nature. Today, pretty much all of our computing devices use some form of graphical user interface with either a mouse, a stylus, or a user’s finger as an input device. (Voice-activated gadgets like the Amazon Echo aside.)

But after over three decades of mouse-and-keyboard computing, we’re on the precipice of the next major advancement in user interfaces: Virtual and augmented reality, or VR and AR. Taken together, VR and AR are on track to become the dominant method of computer interaction within the next 10-15 years, driving all kinds of new hardware and software innovations.

However, this change will not happen overnight. A recent Fortune article looked at the adoption cycle of just VR headsets:

“For all the hype around the new Sony (sne) PlayStation VR, Microsoft (msft) HoloLens, or Nolan Bushnell’s new Modal VR gear, just 6% of Americans will own any of these devices this year.

According to Strategy Analytics research, roughly 11.4 million American adults will pony up for one of the aforementioned devices—or a Google (goog) Cardboard or HTC Vive among other gizmos—by year’s end.

This is a good start, serving as a way to introduce VR and AR to the masses in a comfortable way. Still, the reality is that most people will not want to use goggles or glasses to interact with a computing device — for proof, just look at the rise and fall of Google Glass or glasses-mandatory 3D TV. So it’ll take time for these technologies to go mainstream. Also, I believe that most people will have their first experiences with VR and AR on a mobile device, thanks to the affordable entry-level, smartphone-powered headsets proliferating in the marketplace, like Samsung’s Gear VR and Google’s Daydream View.

Every major technology firm is working on some form of VR, AR, or both. Facebook (fb) owns VR firm Oculus, Sony recently introduced the PlayStation VR, Microsoft has its HoloLens, and so on. But I believe it will be Apple (aapl) that will bring AR, at least, to the masses. While the company has been largely hush-hush about its VR and AR plans, CEO Tim Cook has said multiple times now that he’s interest in AR, a sign that the technology might arrive in some form with the next iPhone, possibly as soon as this fall.

To be sure, Apple has been slow to bring a VR or AR product to market — but Apple is rarely first to market, instead preferring to let others experiment with new product categories before it introduces a more refined take. It would also be a nice historical note if Apple, the company that popularized the graphical user interface and mouse, brought the next major form of computer interaction mainstream. Additionally, if Apple got AR right, it could help provide the sales boost the company increasingly needs.

As it stands, there’s nothing necessarily wrong with using a keyboard and mouse to interact with a computer. But kicking that interaction up a notch could unlock completely unpredictable new ways of being productive with a computer. AR and VR-based computing represents the next evolution in user interface design, and will be changing our personal and work lives very soon.