2010年，當史蒂夫·喬布斯為熱情的果粉推出了第一款iPad時，他把它稱作一款“真正神奇和革命性的產品。”“它為你帶來了有生以來最好的瀏覽體驗。”

這種說法在2010年還是很靠譜的。當時智能手機的屏幕要比現在小很多（一般都是3.5英寸，而不像現在動輒就是五六寸的大屏）。當時的筆記本電腦也比現在重了不少，而且也沒有觸屏功能。雖然iPad一開始遭到了嘲笑，但它為幾千萬消費者引入了一個全新的平板電腦的概念。（嚴格地說，它并不是世界上的第一款平板電腦，但iPad讓平板電腦這個概念真正流行了起來。）其他廠商也競相跟風推出了類似的平板產品，但鮮有哪種競品真正達到了iPad的高度。

但是七年后，iPad已經陷入了困境。當然，據研究公司IDC的最新估算，蘋果仍然是全球最大的平板電腦出貨商。但如果把平板電腦市場比作一個迅速蒸發的大湖，那么蘋果只不過是湖里最大的一艘船。據IDC計算，2016年第四季度，全球平板電腦出貨量下跌了20.1%。在最近一個季度，iPad的總出貨量也驟降19%，iPad部門的營收更是下跌了22%。

至少在公開場合，蘋果高管對iPad的前景還是很有信心的。蘋果CEO蒂姆·庫克在本周早些時候的收益電話會議上表示：“我對這種產品的前景還是非常樂觀的。”會上，蘋果高官們表示，存貨水平的變化和零部件短缺是導致iPad銷量疲軟的原因之一。而iPhone的銷量仍然十分火爆，這也減輕了iPad銷量下滑帶來的一些壓力。

不過專家們表示，蘋果還存在一個更大的問題：它沒有給消費者一個具有吸引力的理由去購買iPad或是升級現有機型。這種產品雖然7年前看來是革命性的，但如今它已經成為夾在大屏手機和便捷筆記本電腦之間的一種頗為尷尬的產品。消費者可能會想，iPad買來后究竟能干什么用。

福雷斯特咨詢公司副總裁、首席分析師J.P.剛德表示：“蘋果必須搞清楚除了iPhone以外，未來的計算設備應該是什么樣的。不管它是像平板電腦、Mac還是像某種混合產品，蘋果都需要重新評估消費者想要什么。”

為了沖出平板市場的生存危機，蘋果又推出了加強版的iPad Pro產品，作為筆記本電腦的替代品。iPad Pro搭載了速度更快的處理器和更大的屏幕，并且兼容手寫筆和鍵盤等配件。iPad Pro雖然從硬件看與筆記本電腦有一拼，但它的軟件卻成了短板。因為大多數競品筆記本電腦都能運行完全版的Windows程序，而iPad卻只能運行移動應用。雖然微軟和Adobe等軟件商都針對iPad推出了瘦身產品，但它們在觸屏上并沒有在電腦上那樣好用。

剛德表示：“比如說，在iOS上操作電子表格是很困難的。雖然你可以使用某個版本的Excel，但由于沒有鼠標，操作起來非常有挑戰性。”

有些果粉呼吁蘋果公司生產一款能運行完全電腦程序的iPad，或者推出一款搭載觸屏的MacBook。摩爾見解與戰略公司（Moor Insights & Strategy）總裁兼首席分析師帕特里克·摩爾認為：“我認為，很多人想要的是一種像翻蓋式筆記本電腦的觸屏設備。”但已有多位蘋果高管表示，這種事情是永遠不會發生的。摩爾海德還提議將iPad Mini作為一款游戲設備進行推廣。從任天堂的3DS手持游戲設備的成功來看，這倒未必是個壞主意。不過蘋果在游戲領域向來不是一個嚴肅的玩家。

蘋果還可以考慮另一個戰術：讓iPad降價。據IDC介紹，作為蘋果旗下最貴的平板產品，售價599美元起的iPad Pro在2016年假日季期間只占了平板市場總出貨量的很小一部分。蘋果真正“走量”的產品是iPad Air 2和iPad mini。高德納公司首席研究分析師北川美佳子認為：“如果蘋果調低iPad的售價，我認為或許有助于提高銷量。”當然降價也是要付出一定代價的。“蘋果可能要犧牲一部分營收。”所以說，這招搞不好會弄巧成拙。

對于蘋果來說，最好的方法莫過于再做一次蘋果最擅長的事——讓全世界相信，它將再次推出一個以往不存在的、真正革命性的東西。剛德認為：“蘋果需要的是，是一種全新的、不同的產品，它能做的事情與以往有明顯的區別，這才會讓我真正想去購買它。”

如果傳言屬實，蘋果的下一代iPad可能不會有什么突破性的創新。據彭博社報道，下一代iPad將搭配更出色的顯示技術，另外蘋果的手寫筆系統也將有所改進。一向能精準預測蘋果產品的KGI證券公司分析師郭明齊（音）表示，蘋果公司或將推出一款新的10.5寸屏的iPad。這種小幅度的改進有可能帶來銷量的小幅上升，但要想讓這個“病人”真正起死回升，看來還是不夠的。（財富中文網）

作者：Lisa Eadicicco

譯者：樸成奎

When Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPad to an enthusiastic crowd in 2010, he called it a “truly magical and revolutionary product.” “It’s the best browsing experience you’ve ever had,” said the late Apple CEO.

That statement made sense in 2010. Smartphones screens were significantly smaller (typically about 3.5 inches versus five or six inches today), while laptops were heavier and lacked touchscreens. Despite being mocked early on, the iPad introduced the entire concept of a tablet to millions of consumers. (It wasn’t the first “tablet,” but it popularized the category.) Other manufacturers raced to introduce similar devices, though few matched the iPad’s appeal.

But seven years later, the iPad is in trouble. True, Apple still makes the most tablet shipments in the world, according to the latest estimates from research firm IDC. But it’s the biggest ship in a quickly evaporating lake. Global tablet shipments fell by 20.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016, IDC says. Apple’s total iPad shipments dropped 19% in its most recent quarter, it announced Tuesday, while revenue from the devices is down 22%.

Apple executives remain confident about the iPad’s future, at least publicly. “I still feel very optimistic about where we can take the product,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook on the earnings call earlier this week. During that call, Apple executives argued that changes in inventory levels and component shortages are at least in part to blame for poor iPad sales. And the iPhone remains a hot seller, taking some pressure off the iPad.

But experts say there’s a bigger issue at play: Apple hasn’t given consumers a compelling reason to buy an iPad, or to upgrade their existing model. Whereas the device seemed revolutionary seven years ago, today it’s stuck somewhere between our embiggened smartphones and ultra-portable laptops. That could leave shoppers wondering what the iPad is actually for.

“It’s very important that [Apple] figures out what the future of computing looks like outside of the iPhone,” says J.P. Gownder, a vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “Whether that looks like a tablet, a hybrid, or a Mac, it needs to reassess what it is its customers are looking for.”

In what may be an attempt to address the tablet market’s existential crisis, Apple has been marketing its souped-up iPad Pro lineup as a laptop replacement. The Pro models offer speedier processors, bigger screens and are compatible with Apple’s Pencil stylus and keyboard accessories. But in some ways, the iPad’s laptop-like qualities are hampered by its software. Whereas most rival devices run full-blown Windows programs, the iPad can only run mobile apps. Software makers like Microsoft and Adobe have released lightweight versions of their popular services for the iPad, but they’re not always as easy to use with a touchscreen as they’re desktop cousins.

“You can’t really do spreadsheets, for example, on iOS,” says Gownder. “You can use a version of Excel, but without a mouse it’s very challenging.”

Some Apple fans have been urging the company to make an iPad with full desktop software, or, conversely, a MacBook with a touchscreen. “I think people have spoken in that they want a touch device that operates like a clamshell type of notebook,” says Patrick Moorhead, president and principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy. But multiple Apple executives have said that will never happen. Moorhead also floated the idea of promoting the iPad Mini as a gaming device. That’s not necessarily a bad idea, given the success of Nintendo’s 3DS handheld gaming devices. But Apple has never been a serious player in the gaming world.

Another tactic Apple might consider: Making the iPad cheaper. The $599-and-up iPad Pro, Apple’s most expensive tablet line, only accounted for a small portion of overall tablet shipments in the 2016 holiday quarter, according to IDC. The cheaper iPad Air 2 and mini tablets were responsible for most of Apple’s shipments. “If Apple lowers the price of its iPads, I think it might increase the volume,” says Mikako Kitagawa, a principal research analyst at Gartner. Of course, Kitagawa says there’s a catch: “It would have to sacrifice revenue.” So depending on how the math shakes out, that could be self-defeating.

The best approach may be for Apple to once again pull its trademark trick: Convincing the world it wants something revolutionary that didn’t exist yesterday. “What is needed is something new and fresh and different,” says Gownder. “Something where you say this is doing something distinctly different from what it did before that would make me actually want to buy it.”

But if the rumor mill is to be believed, Apple’s next iPads will be less than groundbreaking. Bloomberg reports the next models will have better display technology, along with improvements to Apple’s stylus accessory, the Apple Pencil. KGI Securities Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, often an accurate seer when it comes to the difficult-to-read Apple, says the company may launch a new 10.5-inch iPad. Those kind of minor tweaks could result in accordingly minor sales bumps. But it’s unlikely they will be enough to fully resurrect this particular patient.