傳統的主機電子游戲領域的確正在遭遇變革。索尼、微軟和任天堂（Nintendo）這些巨頭依然挺立，不過他們的生態系統范圍已經大大擴張了。

研究公司Newzoo表示，今年移動游戲的營業額（369億美元，占市場996億美元總營業額的37%）首次超過了主機游戲（290億美元，占市場總營業額的29%）。主機游戲業務比2015年增長了4.5%，表現不差。但是移動游戲業務同比漲幅卻超過了30%。與此同時，PC端游戲業務借助休閑游戲和免費游戲也出現了增長，在2016年的營業額達到319億美元。

由于PlayStation VR和微軟2017年在虛擬現實領域的舉措，主機游戲在今年（以及未來短時間內）會迎來飛速發展。不過在谷歌Daydream View頭盔的促進之下，移動游戲也會進入繁榮期。而受益于Oculus Rift、HTC Vive以及華碩、戴爾、惠普、宏碁和聯想制造的各種微軟頭盔，PC端游戲同樣會表現強勁。

2017年游戲界的趨勢是什么？讓我們來看看三巨頭的計劃，以及他們是如何適應全球業務的變化的。

索尼互動娛樂

自2014年發布PlayStation 4以來，索尼就主宰了主機市場。韋德布什證券（Wedbush Securities）的分析師邁克爾·帕切特估計，迄今為止PS4的銷售量已經超過4,900萬臺。這個數字包括約250萬臺PS4 Pro，這款售價400美元的中間代主機把游戲和娛樂產品的分辨率升級到了4K水平，計算處理能力也有所提高。索尼還重新設計了原來300美元版本的PS4，讓它變得更加小巧。

索尼2017年把目光更多地投向了虛擬現實領域。公司售價400美元的PSVR頭盔兼容所有的PS4主機，他們還計劃在明年圣誕節以前上架50款虛擬現實游戲，其中包含預裝在平臺上的20款游戲。

索尼互動娛樂全球工作室的主席肖恩·萊登表示，公司已經為虛擬現實體驗專門開發了許多預裝游戲。其他游戲則會擁有虛擬現實增強版的級別和模式，例如華納兄弟互動娛樂（Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment）的《蝙蝠俠：阿卡姆VR》（Batman: Arkham）和電子藝界（Electronic Arts）的《星球大戰前線:俠盜一號X翼戰機VR任務》（Star Wars Battlefront Rogue One: X-Wing VR Mission）。

總體來說，索尼把虛擬現實看作與大屏幕主機游戲互補的新平臺。帕切特預計索尼會在今年賣出200萬臺PSVR。

微軟

微軟目前在主機市場暫列第二。帕切特預計到今年年底，公司Xbox One的全球總銷量將達到2,400萬臺。與索尼類似，微軟給越來越多偏好4K分辨率的玩家提供了升級主機的機會。公司最近推出了Xbox One S（起售價300美元），附帶超高清藍光光碟播放器和4K游戲畫質的升級。與此同時，原版Xbox One仍舊以最低250美元的價格出售。

微軟給玩家帶來的大規模主機升級要等到2017年的假日季。在今年6月的E3電子游戲貿易展上，微軟公布了中間代主機Xbox One的升級版Project Scorpio。這款主機性能更強，可以讓游戲開發商設計4K游戲，營造虛擬現實體驗。在微軟的E3新聞發布會上，Xbox業務主管菲爾·斯賓塞表示公司目前沒有研發第一方的虛擬現實頭盔。從技術角度來看，這是實話，不過卻并不意味著微軟的出局：公司隨后宣布宏碁、惠普、聯想、華碩和戴爾將會推出為Windows 10設計的虛擬現實頭盔，售價300美元。這些產品預計將在2017年第一季度上市，看起來它們很適合Project Scorpio和PC機。

微軟已經確認，Project Scorpio將向下兼容Xbox 360和Xbox One的游戲，玩家們得以保留現有的游戲庫。Xbox運營主管戴夫·麥卡錫表示，微軟致力于“游戲無界限”的哲學，也就是確保產品的更新換代不會把消費者拋下。這種主機的戰略與移動游戲領域類似，即產品的更新周期很快，而玩家則習慣于在兩年或更短時間內升級自己的手機。老式的主機型號——那些十多年都沒有更新的系統——已經被淘汰了。

任天堂

任天堂之前名列業內第三。在公司的GameCube主機乏人問津，全球銷量不足2,200萬臺之后，許多游戲業的觀察者認為他們已經日薄西山。不過隨后在2006年，任天堂推出了Wii，引領了動作控制游戲的時代，這款主機的最終銷量超過了1.01億臺。帕切特預計到今年年底，任天堂主機的全球保有量僅有1,400萬（盡管這一數據可能低估了任天堂復刻版紅白機NES Classic Edition的驚人人氣）。公司近日停止了老版主機的生產，把重點放在了下一代家庭游戲平臺Switch上。

Switch是一款混合模式的產品，玩家既可以在家里，也可以在路上享受任天堂的游戲。（它可以在連接大屏幕電視時充電，還可以在上述兩種環境下進行多人聯機游戲。）這款產品預計將于2017年3月發布，售價250美元。帕切特認為，任天堂可以在2017年賣出500萬臺Switch，盡管公司到下個月才會公布確切的發售時間、預裝游戲和價格。它是否會像競爭對手一樣支持4K分辨率的游戲，目前尚不明確。

任天堂總裁雷吉·菲爾斯-埃米表示：“任天堂歷來都有自己的行事風格，所以無論微軟和索尼決定做什么，那都是他們的事情。我們會自行判斷哪些是可行的，哪些是不可行的，顯然我們在Wii U上做到了這一點，而且我們也堅持相信，這種副屏幕的創新是值得投入去做的理念。”

任天堂也開始向移動游戲領域挺進。通過與日本移動游戲發行商DeNA的合作，任天堂五款應用中的第一款Miitomo就取得了開門紅。第二款（也是第一款手游）馬里奧跑酷游戲Super Mario Run在12月15日以9.99美元的價格登陸了iOS平臺。該游戲由傳奇設計師宮本茂專為移動屏幕開發，他曾是《大金剛》（Donkey Kong）《超級瑪麗》（Super Mario Bros.）《塞爾達傳說》（the Legend of Zelda）等游戲的共同開發者。

在手游領域，任天堂與Niantic和口袋妖怪公司（The Pokemon Company）的合作也取得了碩果。他們聯手在今年7月推出了《口袋妖怪Go》（Pokemon Go）。這款采用增強現實技術的游戲引發了巨大熱潮，下載量超過5億次，在安卓（Android）和iOS平臺收入超過6億美元。Niantic之前曾是谷歌（Google）旗下的業務部門，隨后得到了任天堂的投資。任天堂在該公司上繼續押注，想必也是不足為奇。（財富中文網）

作者：John Gaudiosi

譯者：嚴匡正

The times are certainly changing for the traditional console video game business. The key players—Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo—remain the same, but the ecosystem has vastly expanded.

According to research firm Newzoo, this year marks the first time mobile game sales will account for more revenue ($36.9 billion, or 37% of the $99.6 billion market) than console gaming ($29 billion, or 29% of the market). The console games business is up 4.5% over 2015—not bad. But the mobile games business is up more than 30% from last year. And thanks to casual and free-to-play games, PC gaming is also on the rise, accounting for $31.9 billion in 2016.

Console gaming will get a boost this year (and for its short-term future) thanks to PlayStation VR and Microsoft’s 2017 virtual reality initiatives. But so too will mobile gaming, thanks to Google Daydream View, and PC gaming, thanks to the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and various Microsoft headsets made by Asus, Dell, HP, Acer, and Lenovo.

What's to come for the gaming industry in 2017? Here's a look at what the Big Three have planned and how they’re adapting to an evolving global business.

Sony Interactive Entertainment

Sony has dominated the console market since launching PlayStation 4 in 2014. The company has sold more than 49 million PS4s to date globally, according to estimates by Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter—and will likely reach 58 million by the end of 2016. That figure includes about 2.5 million PlayStation 4 Pros, the new $400 mid-generation console that upgrades gaming and entertainment to ultra high resolution (4K) and features more processing power under the hood. Sony also redesigned the original $300 PS4 to make it slimmer.

Sony marches into 2017 placing more bets on virtual reality. Its $400 PlayStation VR headset works with all existing PS4 consoles, and the company plans to have 50 virtual reality games on store shelves by Christmas Day, including 20 launch titles that shipped with the platform.

Shawn Layden, chairman of Sony Interactive Entertainment Worldwide Studios, says the company has developed several launch games specifically for the VR experience. Other games will have levels and modes enhanced by virtual reality, such as Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment’s Batman: Arkham VR and Electronic Arts’ Star Wars Battlefront Rogue One: X-Wing VR Mission.

In general, Sony is marketing virtual reality as a new platform that is complimentary to big-screen console gaming. Pachter forecasts Sony will sell two million PlayStation VR units this year.

Microsoft

In the console market, Microsoft is currently No. 2. Pachter forecasts that the company will have 24 million Xbox One units in homes worldwide by the end of this year. Like Sony, Microsoft is offering a growing number of gamers who prefer 4K resolution the ability to upgrade their console. The company recently launched its Xbox One S (starting at $300), which comes with an Ultra HD Blu-ray player and 4K gaming upgrade. It still sells the original Xbox One (starting at $250).

Microsoft is waiting until next year—holiday season 2017—to offer gamers a major upgrade. Announced at the E3 video game trade show in June, so-called Project Scorpio is a mid-generation Xbox One upgrade that offers developers a more powerful console to create 4K games and virtual reality experiences for. At Microsoft's E3 press conference, Phil Spencer, head of Xbox business at the company, says Microsoft wasn’t currently developing a first-party virtual reality headset. That's technically true, but don't count the company out: Microsoft later announced that Acer, HP, Lenovo, Asus and Dell will be manufacturing $300 virtual reality headsets designed for Windows 10. They're scheduled to arrive in the first three months of 2017, which seems like a good fit for Project Scorpio and PCs alike.

Microsoft has also confirmed that Project Scorpio will be backwards-compatible with games on both Xbox 360 and Xbox One, allowing gamers to keep their current libraries intact. Dave McCarthy, head of operations for Xbox, says Microsoft is committed to its “playing without boundaries” philosophy, meant to ensure that it doesn’t leave consumers behind during upgrade cycles. The console strategy replicates one found in the mobile games industry, where upgrade cycles are faster and gamers are used to upgrading their smartphones every two years or sooner. The old-fashioned console model—one system that lasts for 10 or more years with no upgrades—is obsolete.

Nintendo

Nintendo has been in third place before. Many gaming industry watchers counted out the company after its GameCube console failed to find an audience with global sales of fewer than 22 million. But then it unveiled the Wii in 2006, ushering in an age of motion control gameplay that resulted in more than 101 million consoles sold. Pachter forecasts Nintendo will have a "global install base" of just 14 million systems by the end of this year (though that figure may underestimate the impact of the surprisingly popular NES Classic Edition). The company recently stopped production of its aging console as it transitions to its next home gaming platform, dubbed Switch.

Switch is a hybrid device that allows gamers to play Nintendo franchises at home and on the go. (It can charge while connected to a big-screen TV and is designed for multiplayer gaming in both environments.) It's expected to launch in March 2017 at a price of $250. Pachter believes Nintendo could sell five million Switch units in 2017, though Nintendo won’t reveal the console’s launch date, launch games, and price until next month. Will it support 4K-resolution gaming as its rivals do? It's unclear.

“Nintendo has a quite appropriate reputation of doing its own thing, so whatever Microsoft and Sony decide to do, that’s for them to manage,” Nintendo president Reggie Fils-Aimé says. “We always do our breakdown of what worked, what didn’t, and certainly we’ve done that with Wii U, and we continue to believe that the innovation of the second screen was a worthwhile concept.”

Nintendo has also expanded into mobile gaming. Through a partnership with Japanese mobile game publisher DeNA, Nintendo had a hit out of the gate with its first of five apps, Miitomo. The second title (and first mobile game), Super Mario Run, launches Dec. 15 for $9.99 on Apple devices. The game was developed by Shigeru Miyamoto—the legendary co-creator of Donkey Kong, Super Mario Bros., and the Legend of Zelda, among others—specifically for mobile screens.

Nintendo has also seen success in the mobile category through its partnership with Niantic and The Pokemon Company, which launched the smash hit Pokemon Go in July. The augmented reality game has been downloaded more than 500 million times and generated over $600 million across Android and iOS. It wouldn't be a surprise if Nintendo—which holds an investment in the company—continues to bet on the former Google division.