好萊塢已經準備好新一年票房繼續火爆。隨著2016年接近尾聲，繼去年美國本土票房突破110億美元創下行業紀錄后，今年又將打破紀錄。

2016年電影行業最大亮點是米老鼠老家——迪士尼爆發，全球票房創下新紀錄。2016年迪士尼全球狂收70億美元票房，在各家電影公司里排名第一。

2017年有什么可期待？現在要猜明年票房破120億美元可能為時尚早，但樂觀估計2017年將連續第三年破紀錄還是有把握的。

“2017像個怪獸，不只是對迪士尼來說，對每個人都是。”數據分析公司ComScore高級媒體分析師保羅·德加比第安告訴《財富》雜志。據德加比第安預測，2016年票房比2015年不會多過2%，明年統治好萊塢票房的可能花落別家。他表示，每年似乎都像“擊鼓傳花”，這一年某家公司獨大，下一年就換成另一家。

此前年度票房紀錄由康卡斯特的環球影業去年創下，該公司也有一些近年賺得數十億美元的續集將于2017年上映，例如《神偷奶爸3》，還有去年的大黑馬《五十度灰》續集。環球影業還找來湯姆·克魯斯拍新系列怪獸電影《新木乃伊》。

時代華納旗下的華納兄弟也手握一群超級英雄（《神奇女俠》、《正義聯盟》和《樂高大電影：蝙蝠俠》），近來期待上世紀80年代科幻佳片《銀翼殺手》續集——《銀翼殺手2049》的呼聲也不小。

雖然周圍虎視眈眈，但2017的大贏家可能還是迪士尼。明年會有兩部漫威大片上映（《銀河護衛隊2》和《雷神3：諸神的黃昏》），真人版《美女與野獸》，皮克斯工作室會推出兩部新片（包括《賽車總動員3》），還有《加勒比海盜》系列第五部（《加勒比海盜》前作中有兩部票房超過10億美元）。這還不算完，明年底迪士尼還會奉上超級大片《星球大戰》新一部續集——《星球大戰8》將于2017年12月上映。

當然了，即便經過熱炒，大片也有可能票房慘敗。以前再成功，粉絲對高調大片再充滿期待，也并不能保證2017年大片會個個成功。也要考慮以下未知因素：

國際票房市場

如果把海外票房加進來看，2016年票房排名前十的電影全是海外比國內賺錢多（票房第一的電影，迪士尼出品的《美國隊長3：內戰》11.5億美元票房里近65%來自海外市場）。“如果票房想突破10億美元，國際那塊是必不可少的。” 德加比第安表示。

中國已是美國以外最大的電影市場，雖然2016年增速略有放緩，但很可能近期內就會超越美國。唐納德·特朗普當選后，好萊塢已有人擔心新政府與中國的關系。特朗普很不看好與中國之間的貿易，他執掌的政府可能會放緩中國對好萊塢的投資。外交層面一點風吹草動都有可能影響中國電影市場的限制以及復雜的監管系統，目前外國進口片在中國上映的數量都是受限制的。

實際電影票銷售持續疲軟

雖然票房總收入接連破紀錄，但電影票實際銷售已多年未見增長。2015年電影票銷量與前五年幾乎持平，比起十年前下降了2.5%。近幾年電影票價提升推動票房收入節節走高，但每年進電影院觀影的人數并未同步增加。這是值得全行業關注的問題，尤其是當下還面臨網絡視頻和家庭娛樂選擇增多的沖擊。結果看起來電影行業逐漸接受了優先在線觀看的選項，即電影公司在網站和實體影院同步發行。

續集疲勞

好萊塢近來常被批評缺乏創意，明年很可能也不會改觀。2017年幾乎所有肩負眾望的大片都是續集、改編、經典翻拍，派生作品等等。去年夏天上映的一些片子不盡如人意（可以說完全失敗），所以不少觀眾產生了“續集疲勞證”或“續集病”。當然了，一般大片續集票房慘遭滑鐵盧后指責聲比較響，如果票房大賣沒什么人說（例子：迪士尼的漫威系列和星戰系列，再看神偷奶爸系列和饑餓游戲系列。不過，有些續集雖然口碑差票房還是火熱。）雖然今后還是可能碰上票房毒藥，好萊塢電影工業的模式也會持續，但歷史經驗已經表明，指望續集大賣的電影公司往往真能橫掃票房。 （財富中文網）

作者：Tom Huddleston Jr.

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

Hollywood is wrapping up another big year at the box office. As the year comes to a close, the domestic box office is on pace to set another new industry record just one year after topping $11 billion in domestic movie ticket sales for the first time ever.

2016's movie industry highlights include a monster year for Walt Disney, as the Mouse House set a new yearly global box office record, becoming the first studio to ever top $7 billion in worldwide ticket sales.

What should we expect in 2017? It may be too soon to predict a $12 billion box office next year, but there's certainly reason for optimism that 2017 can be Hollywood's third-straight record-breaking year.

" 2017 looks like a monster—not just for Disney, but for everyone," Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore, tells Fortune. Dergarabedian predicts that 2016 will end up outpacing 2015's record year by no more than 2% and that next year could see a different Hollywood studio dominate the box office. Every year, he says, there seems to be a sort of "passing of the baton" as one studio's massive year gives way to another of the major Hollywood production houses.

Comcast's (cmcsa) Universal Studios held the previous single-year box office record, which it set just last year, and the studio has a handful of sequels from franchises that have recently produced billion-dollar films on deck for 2017—The Fate of the Furious and Despicable Me 3—as well as the sequel to last year's sleeper hit, Fifty Shades of Grey. Universal will also launch its new universe of monster movies with Tom Cruise starring in The Mummy.

Time Warner's Warner Bros. has a full slate of superhero titles (Wonder Woman, Justice League, and The LEGO Batman Movie), and the studio is already seeing a lot of buzz around Blade Runner 2049, its long-awaited sequel to the beloved 1980s sci-fi movie.

When all is said and done, though, 2017 could once again be the year of Disney . The studio has two more big Marvel releases (Guardians of the Galaxy 2 and Thor: Ragnarok) as well as a live-action version of Beauty and the Beast, two new movies from Pixar Animation Studios (including Cars 3), and a fifth installment in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise (two of the first PotC films grossed more than $1 billion apiece). And, to top it all off, Disney will end the year with yet another installment from the massively successful Star Wars franchise, with Episode VIII set for a December release.

Of course, even over-hyped, big-budget blockbusters can turn into major flops at the box office. Prior success and fan excitement over high-profile movie titles don't guarantee that 2017 will be a blockbuster year for Hollywood. Here are some variables to consider:

The International Market

To put the importance of the overseas box office into perspective, all of the 10 highest-grossing films of 2016 made more money overseas than domestically (the top film, Disney's Captain America: Civil War, made almost 65% of its $1.15 billion total through international release). "If you’re going to get over that billion-dollar hurdle, you need that international component of the box office," Dergarabedian says.

China is the largest movie market outside of the U.S., and it could even outpace the U.S. in the relatively near future despite much slower growth in 2016. There is already concern in Hollywood over how President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration will affect the U.S.'s relationship with China. Trump has taken a dim view of China's trade policies, and his administration could create a slow-down in Chinese investments in Hollywood. Any chilling effect on diplomatic relations could also affect the Chinese market’s strict and complicated regulatory system, which limits the number of foreign-made movies that are released in the country each year.

Actual Ticket Sales Continue Slumping

Despite record years in terms of total gross, the number of actual tickets sold by movie theaters has been plateauing for years. The number of actual tickets sold in 2015 was essentially flat compared to the previous five years and the number was down by about 2.5% from a decade earlier. Ongoing ticket-price inflation has kept box office revenues climbing the past couple of years, but the fact remains that the number of people actually going to the movies each year has not shown the same growth. It's an obvious point of concern for the industry at large, especially given the rise in streaming and other at-home entertainment options. As a result, the industry has even seems to be gradually warming to the idea of premium streaming options, where studios release movies for customers to stream at home while they're still showing in theaters.

Sequel Fatigue

The common complaint about the seeming lack of originality in Hollywood probably isn't going anywhere in the next year. Nearly all of the most-anticipated movies of 2017 are sequels, adaptations, franchise reboots, spin-offs, etc. When a number of those types of films disappointed (or outright bombed) last summer, there was plenty of concern that moviegoers were suffering from "sequel fatigue" or "sequelitis." Of course, complaints about the proliferation of sequels tend to be much louder in the wake of a high-profile flop than they are after the release of financially and critically successful follow-ups (see: Disney's Marvel and Star Wars franchises, or the Despicable Me and Hunger Games movies, to name a few—though, some movies still make a ton of money despite toxic reviews). Even with the potential for major flops, Hollywood's movie franchise model is here to stay, but history shows us that the studios that aim for critical success with their sequels tend to land more hits at the box office.