《華爾街日報(bào)》報(bào)道，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賈斯汀·皮爾斯和耶魯大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家皮特·肖特稱，在當(dāng)?shù)毓I(yè)受到中國競爭影響的縣，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)“統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)反映的自殺人數(shù)的相對增長……集中在白人男性身上。”

他們的研究靈感來自較早的一項(xiàng)研究，后者表明雖然所有種族的死亡率都在下降，但白人的死亡率正以令人咋舌的速度惡化。

諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主安格斯·迪頓和普林斯頓大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安妮·凱斯聯(lián)合撰寫了這項(xiàng)研究報(bào)告。研究顯示，1994-2014年，美國45-54歲人群的死亡率提高了0.134個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。迪頓說：“在當(dāng)代，只有艾滋病才會(huì)造成這樣的情況。”

迪頓和凱斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，死亡率上升的原因是自殺行為和吸毒過量的空前增長。

肖特接受《華爾街日報(bào)》采訪時(shí)指出：“在那篇報(bào)告中，我們注意到從2000年開始出現(xiàn)了一種趨勢，那就是美國從中國進(jìn)口的大幅增長以及美國失去了大量制造業(yè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。”

重型制造業(yè)地區(qū)受影響最大。不過，即便是和中國的貿(mào)易競爭不是很激烈的地區(qū)，自殺行為也增加了3.5%，過度用藥人數(shù)則飆升24%。

外貿(mào)影響美國就業(yè)成了唐納德·特朗普選戰(zhàn)中的一張主打牌，他承諾把就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)帶回國內(nèi)，并讓美中經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系回到過去。

《華盛頓郵報(bào)》指出，“在中年白人死亡率高的州”，特朗普的多數(shù)票優(yōu)勢最大。

在上周通過社交媒體公布的百日執(zhí)政方案中，特朗普的計(jì)劃之一是“商討公平的雙邊貿(mào)易協(xié)議，以便將就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)和各個(gè)行業(yè)帶到美國國內(nèi)。”他承諾，2017年1月20日入住白宮時(shí)，奧巴馬留下而且尚未獲批的《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》將最先被拋棄。

特朗普說：“無論是生產(chǎn)鋼鐵、制造汽車還是治療疾病，我都希望下一代的生產(chǎn)和創(chuàng)新就出現(xiàn)在美國。”

不過，肖特并不建議停止推動(dòng)全球貿(mào)易自由化。他對《華爾街日報(bào)》表示，此舉“會(huì)傷害到所有人。我們要的是通過貿(mào)易提高生產(chǎn)率并降低物價(jià)。”

此外，他在建議中強(qiáng)調(diào)為權(quán)利被損害的勞動(dòng)者提供更多培訓(xùn)，而且重點(diǎn)要放在如何幫助他們向經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)型。

肖特還指出，和中國貿(mào)易的增長可能改善人們的生活，因?yàn)樗梢詭砀阋耍ㄒ蚨嗟模└鞣N商品和服務(wù)，從醫(yī)療保健到具體日常用品都是如此。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

A “statistically relevant relative increase in suicide… concentrated among white males” is detectable in U.S. counties where local industries were affected by competition from China, said Federal Reserve economist Justin Pierce and Yale economist Peter Schott in the Wall Street Journal.

Their research was inspired by an earlier study that showed that while mortality rates among all ethnic groups were improving, those among whites were worsening at a startling rate.

Between 1999 and 2014, death rates in the 45 to 54 year-old demographic increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people. “Only H.I.V./AIDS in contemporary times has done anything like this,” said Nobel-laureate Angus Deaton, who co-authored that study with Princeton economist Anne Case.

They discovered that the rise in mortality was due to unprecedented increases in suicide and drug overdoses.

“The thing about that paper that we noticed was that the trend started in 2000, when you see a big jump in U.S. imports from China and a huge loss in manufacturing jobs,” Schott told the Journal.

Areas where there was heavy manufacturing were most affected. But even those areas with merely average levels of trade competition with China saw suicide increases of 3.5% and a 24% leap in the numbers of overdoses for the demographic.

The issue of foreign trade taking U.S. jobs was a major element of Donald Trump’s campaign, which promised to bring back jobs and roll back economic ties with China.

The Washington Post said of voting majorities that Trump was strongest “in states where middle aged white mortality rates were high”

In his first 100 days outline, released on social media last week, one of Donald Trump’s plans was to “negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry onto American shores.” He promised that Obama’s legacy Trans Pacific Partnership deal, which has not yet been ratified, will be the first thing to go when he takes over the White House on January 20, 2017.

“Whether it’s producing steel, building cars, or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here,” Trump has said.

However, Schott did not recommend ceasing to liberalize global trade, telling the Journal that such a move “hurts everyone. We want the increases in productivity and reductions in prices that trade brings.”

Instead, his recommendations emphasize more training for disenfranchised workers, with a focus on helping them move into growing areas of the economy.

Schott also pointed out that increased trade with China could improve people’s lives by brining cheaper (and therefore increased) access to goods and services across the board, from healthcare to tangible everyday items.