要說比爾·蓋茨、伊隆·馬斯克、史蒂芬·霍金這三位大牛都有什么共同點，那就是他們?nèi)硕荚_表示過對人工智能和機器人的恐懼與擔(dān)憂。

雖然這兩種技術(shù)都是極有前景的技術(shù)，并且必然會對未來產(chǎn)生深遠的影響，但我們也要知道，這兩門技術(shù)的發(fā)展將會給人類社會帶來哪些后果——尤其是在勞動力方面。

近日，約翰·馬爾科夫在《紐約時報》上發(fā)表了一篇文章，這篇文章與我的第一個擔(dān)憂不謀而合。他指出，雖然人工智能有很大的潛力為人類造福，但犯罪分子也有可能利用AI技術(shù)從事一些不法活動。他在文中寫道：

“古德曼先生指出，從當(dāng)前許多網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊工具（如“黑影”（Blackshades）等一批被廣泛使用的惡意程序）的演化中可以看出，網(wǎng)絡(luò)犯罪分子的技術(shù)已經(jīng)變得越來越高超。“黑影”程序的編寫者是一名瑞典人，他于去年在美國被判刑。

古德曼先生表示，“黑影”系統(tǒng)在網(wǎng)絡(luò)黑市銷路很廣，成了一個“盒子里的犯罪產(chǎn)業(yè)”。就算是沒有任何技術(shù)背景的用戶，只需用鼠標(biāo)輕輕一點，就可以向他人電腦植入勒索軟件，對受害人進行竊聽或偷窺。”

下一代的惡意攻擊程序還將添加機器學(xué)習(xí)功能。而機器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)本來是人工智能領(lǐng)域的專家們?yōu)榱颂岣邫C器視覺、語言識別、語音合成和自然語言識別等技術(shù)的水平而研發(fā)的。有些網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全研究人員認為，網(wǎng)絡(luò)犯罪分子進行人工智能方面的試驗已經(jīng)至少有五年了。

從某種程度上，人工智能犯罪已經(jīng)從科幻變成了現(xiàn)實。比如最近，我們都知道亞馬遜和Netflix等一些大企業(yè)的官網(wǎng)由于受到“分布式拒絕服務(wù)攻擊”（DDoS）而一度陷入癱瘓。我們尚不清楚這一波襲擊背后的動機是什么，要解答這個問題可能還需要一些時間。不過馬爾科夫也指出，人工智能技術(shù)被應(yīng)用于犯罪的風(fēng)險是確實存在的，我們必須明白這一點，這樣將來才能設(shè)法規(guī)避這些風(fēng)險。

人工智能和機器人技術(shù)帶來的另一隱憂，則是它們有可能會大面積取代人力勞動，從而導(dǎo)致大批工作崗位消失。現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有越來越多從事就業(yè)市場研究的人認識到了這個問題的嚴重性。比如《每日電訊報》的科技編輯薩拉·納普頓去年四月曾經(jīng)寫道：

“有專家表示，未來30年里，社會上的大多數(shù)工作崗位都將被機器人所取代，人類將面臨‘有史以來的最大挑戰(zhàn)’。當(dāng)工作不再成為必需，我們將如何尋找人生的意義？

美國萊斯大學(xué)計算機工程學(xué)教授摩西·瓦爾迪指出，不出短短幾十年，許多中產(chǎn)勞動者的工作將會被‘外包’給機器完成，從而使勞動者有了比以往任何時候都更多的時間用來休閑。

摩西·瓦爾迪教授在出席于華盛頓舉辦的美國科學(xué)促進會年會時表示，機器人的崛起將導(dǎo)致就業(yè)率攀升至50%以上。‘機器在幾乎任何任務(wù)上超越人類的時代已經(jīng)離我們很近了。’”

雖然休閑的生活讓很多人感到神往，然而事實上，勞動和工作對我們的生活方式和存在感非常重要。更重要的是，工作為我們提供了生計。據(jù)部分專家預(yù)測，到2050年，全球人口將達到100億人。如果瓦爾迪的預(yù)言成為了現(xiàn)實，機器人真的取代了市場上50%的勞動力，那對于人類來說無疑將是一場災(zāi)難。

對于我這一代人，哪怕是比我還年輕的這一代人來說，把這個問題拋給再下一代人來解決，當(dāng)然是很容易的做法。不過我認為我們不應(yīng)坐等這一噩夢變成現(xiàn)實。硅谷的商業(yè)精英和華盛頓的政治家們既應(yīng)該把人工智能和機器人技術(shù)的發(fā)展當(dāng)成一次機遇，但他們也應(yīng)該意識到，如果處理不當(dāng)，它們也會成為一項重大威脅。

所有的專家都應(yīng)該聽聽蓋茨、馬斯克和霍金等人的警告，在研發(fā)產(chǎn)品時，一定要做好防護和安全手段。與此同時，我們也應(yīng)該對教育體系進行調(diào)整，重點加大對科學(xué)、技術(shù)、工程、數(shù)學(xué)等領(lǐng)域的學(xué)習(xí)力度。因為在未來的世界中，科技和自動化的大浪淘沙將使我們的孩子們正在全力準(zhǔn)備的許多工作成為歷史，而這些技術(shù)將成為新時代里最實用的“鐵飯碗”。

我認為人工智能和機器人技術(shù)能極大地造福人類，但它們同時也會帶來一系列風(fēng)險。不論是硅谷、整個科技界還是我們的政治領(lǐng)袖，都需要正視這個問題，并且應(yīng)該立即攜手解決這具問題。我們身后的幾代人的幸福都系于此。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：樸成奎

Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking all have something in common: All three have gone on the record sharing their concerns and fears about artificial intelligence and robotics.

While these technologies hold a great deal of promise, and will have a real impact on our future, it’s important for us to understand the ramifications they could have for all of us, particularly in terms of labor.

My first big concern about AI was recently highlighted in a New York Times piece by John Markoff, who wrote that while AI has great potential for good, it could also be abused by criminals who might use it for their nefarious goals. Here’s Markoff:

The growing sophistication of computer criminals can be seen in the evolution of attack tools like the widely used malicious program known as Blackshades, according to Mr. Goodman. The author of the program, a Swedish national, was convicted last year in the United States.

The system, which was sold widely in the computer underground, functioned as a “criminal franchise in a box,” Mr. Goodman said. It allowed users without technical skills to deploy computer ransomware or perform video or audio eavesdropping with a mouse click.

The next generation of these tools will add machine learning capabilities that have been pioneered by artificial intelligence researchers to improve the quality of machine vision, speech understanding, speech synthesis and natural language understanding. Some computer security researchers believe that digital criminals have been experimenting with the use of A.I. technologies for more than half a decade.

To some degree, we saw this scenario play out recently when sites like Amazon, Netflix, and others were crippled for hours by “bots” involved in a Distributed Denial of Service, or DDoS, attack. The motive behind the attack remains unclear, and it will take some time to sort that out. But as Markoff pointed out, the criminal potential for AI is real and needs to be understood now to try and head off these kinds of attacks in the future.

AI and robotics also concern me in terms of their role in replacing people in the labor force, thus eliminating jobs. I’m hearing from more and more people who study the job market and believe this problem is very real. Telegraph Science Editor Sarah Knapton wrote the following last April:

“Robots will have taken over most jobs within 30 years leaving humanity facing its ‘biggest challenge ever’ to find meaning in life when work is no longer necessary, according to experts.

Professor Moshe Vardi, of Rice University, in the US, claims that many middle-class professionals will be outsources to machines within the next few decades leaving workers with more leisure time than they have ever experienced.

Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, Prof Moshe said the rise of robots could lead to unemployment rates greater than 50 per cent. “We are approaching a time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task,” said Vardi, a professor in computational engineering.”

While a life of leisure may be appealing to many, the fact is that work and jobs are important to our overall lifestyle and identity. Even more importantly, they provide our livelihood. Forecasters believe that by 2050 there will be close to 10 billion people on the earth. If Vardi is right, and robots could replace as many as 50% of the workers in the market, we’re headed for disaster.

It’s easy for my generation, or even those younger than I, to cast off this problem as one for others to solve. But I don’t think we can wait to address this potential nightmare scenario. Leaders in Silicon Valley and Washington need to view AI and robotics as an opportunity, but also a threat if mishandled.

AI experts need to heed the warnings of people like Gates, Musk, and Hawking, and build safeguards and security into the products they create. Our education system, meanwhile, needs to be retooled to emphasize STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) learning, the sort of skills that will be most useful in a world where technology and automation could wipe out many of the jobs for which our children are currently being prepared.

I see plenty of potential for good in AI and robotics. But I also see the dangers. Silicon Valley, the broader technology world, and our political leaders need to understand this problem and begin working together to deal with it immediately. The generations behind us are counting on it.