金融服務(wù)是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的命脈，它使無數(shù)家庭和企業(yè)具備了儲(chǔ)蓄、投資和抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。即便是在科學(xué)昌明、經(jīng)濟(jì)高度發(fā)展的今天，許多新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的大部分群眾和小企業(yè)仍然缺乏獲得基本的儲(chǔ)蓄和信用產(chǎn)品的渠道，從而阻礙了這些國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，人民長期難以脫貧。廣大發(fā)展中國家約有20億人口缺乏使用銀行服務(wù)的渠道，2億家小企業(yè)無法獲得業(yè)務(wù)增長所需的信貸，資金缺口累計(jì)達(dá)到2.2萬億美元。

這個(gè)問題的解決方案簡單來說只有四個(gè)字——數(shù)字金融，即個(gè)人和企業(yè)無需親自前往銀行的辦事機(jī)構(gòu)，便可以直接完成支付、儲(chǔ)蓄和貸款。數(shù)字化技術(shù)使所有這一切成為可能，它能將一部智能手機(jī)變成錢包、支票簿、銀行，甚至賬本——這些僅僅通過一部手機(jī)便能全部實(shí)現(xiàn)。

金融服務(wù)的普及能夠?qū)?jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)作用，尤其是在那些金融服務(wù)最不發(fā)達(dá)的國家和地區(qū)。對(duì)于這些國家來說，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)到了將它當(dāng)成優(yōu)先要?jiǎng)?wù)來發(fā)展的時(shí)候了。而在這些發(fā)展中國家，哪怕是在一些偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)，手機(jī)也已經(jīng)無處不在了。智能手機(jī)的普及，使得一些從未考慮過在銀行開戶的人也擁有了享受金融服務(wù)的機(jī)會(huì)。目前，移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)已經(jīng)覆蓋了新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體近90%的人口，約80%以上的發(fā)展中國家成年人都是移動(dòng)電話用戶。

數(shù)字化技術(shù)大大降低了提供金融服務(wù)的成本。對(duì)于銀行及其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)來說，數(shù)字賬戶的維護(hù)成本要比傳統(tǒng)賬戶低90%，每名顧客每年的維護(hù)成本僅有10美元，所以即使向低收入人群提供數(shù)字銀行賬戶，也是有利潤的。因此，向個(gè)人和小微企業(yè)普及金融服務(wù)這一長期目標(biāo)，現(xiàn)在也有可能變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。

我們的研究顯示，數(shù)字金融可以讓16億發(fā)展中國家人口獲得金融賬戶、貸款以及其它必需的金融服務(wù)（而且還可以令其他已擁有銀行賬戶的24億人降低金融服務(wù)的使用成本，并提高服務(wù)的便捷性）。許多新顧客位列全球最貧困的40%人口，且半數(shù)以上是女性。而這些新顧客所儲(chǔ)蓄的資金，則可以借貸給發(fā)展中國家的廣大中小微企業(yè)。

另據(jù)我們估算，隨著新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融服務(wù)渠道的擴(kuò)展，到2025年，全球廣大新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的GDP可累計(jì)增加3.7萬億美元，占這些國家GDP總值的6%，大致相當(dāng)于當(dāng)前整個(gè)非洲GDP的1.5倍。這些新增GDP最多能創(chuàng)造9500萬個(gè)新增就業(yè)崗位。一些最低收入國家有望獲得最多的收益，金融服務(wù)的普及最多可推動(dòng)其GDP增加10%至12%。

數(shù)字金融在發(fā)展中國家得到普及，需要一些必要的條件。首當(dāng)其沖的是基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，包括廣泛的手機(jī)普及率、網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋率，以及能夠被社會(huì)普遍接受的服務(wù)價(jià)格。其次是一個(gè)堅(jiān)實(shí)可靠的數(shù)字支付系統(tǒng)，以及被廣泛應(yīng)用的ID系統(tǒng)——最好具備數(shù)字實(shí)名認(rèn)證功能。此外還要有良好的商業(yè)環(huán)境，使廣大服務(wù)供應(yīng)商可以公平競爭，創(chuàng)新研發(fā)新型的數(shù)字金融產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)。這就要求監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)必須在謹(jǐn)慎監(jiān)管和鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)新之間達(dá)到某種平衡。

企業(yè)無論規(guī)模大小，都能從數(shù)字金融中獲得很大利益。首先，發(fā)展中國家的企業(yè)如果將結(jié)算全部由現(xiàn)金改為數(shù)字支付，則至少可以節(jié)省250億小時(shí)工時(shí)。目前，發(fā)展中國家有90%的交易是用現(xiàn)金結(jié)算的。由于企業(yè)主必須要費(fèi)心保管大量現(xiàn)金，他們往往無暇于業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張，畢竟一個(gè)人不可能同時(shí)出現(xiàn)在兩家店里保管現(xiàn)金。另外，如果企業(yè)采用了移動(dòng)支付的方式進(jìn)行結(jié)算，他們也可以輕易地獲得一份銷售記錄，從而更好地進(jìn)行存貨管理。數(shù)字支付還能產(chǎn)生一條可追蹤的數(shù)據(jù)鏈，因此哪怕是規(guī)模再微不足道的小企業(yè)，信貸機(jī)構(gòu)也能查到其信譽(yù)度。

金融服務(wù)供應(yīng)商也有一個(gè)很大的機(jī)會(huì)。從實(shí)體機(jī)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型為數(shù)字化戰(zhàn)略之后，金融服務(wù)業(yè)每年可合計(jì)削減4000億美元的成本。由于數(shù)字金融能夠以相對(duì)較低的成本拓展客戶群，它可以吸攬超過4萬億美元的新增存款，而這筆錢又可以用來借貸。這樣一來，被老百姓藏在床墊底下的“死錢”又可以進(jìn)入流通領(lǐng)域，為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增添活力和流動(dòng)性。

政府也同樣能從中獲益。通過壓縮貪腐機(jī)會(huì)，更精準(zhǔn)地進(jìn)行各項(xiàng)開支，并改善征稅效率，數(shù)字支付有助于一國政府的財(cái)政狀況。我們預(yù)計(jì)，數(shù)字化支付每年有望為這些國家新增1100億美元的財(cái)政收入。包括教育和醫(yī)療在內(nèi)的許多公共服務(wù)都能夠從中獲益。比如，科特迪瓦的家長們以往都是用現(xiàn)金交學(xué)費(fèi)，但在這個(gè)國家，搶劫和貪污受賄橫行。從2011年開始，科特迪瓦引入了移動(dòng)支付服務(wù)。到2014年，幾乎所有學(xué)校的學(xué)費(fèi)都是通過數(shù)字支付的，其中絕大部分是通過手機(jī)。學(xué)生和家長再也不用擔(dān)心學(xué)費(fèi)被人搶走了，而學(xué)校也有了更充足的預(yù)算。移動(dòng)金融服務(wù)商們獲得了新的交易，還獲得了政府的撥款；該國教育部也省下了不少錢，而且能夠獲得更多、更優(yōu)質(zhì)的學(xué)生信息。

雖然在廣大發(fā)展中國家，金融服務(wù)的普及仍然路漫漫而修遠(yuǎn)，但所有趨勢都在朝著正確的方向前進(jìn)。數(shù)字金融所需的無線基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)已經(jīng)基本就位，它正是一個(gè)適合我們這個(gè)時(shí)代的理念。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

本文作者James Manyika是麥肯錫全球研究院主管，Rodger Voorhies是比爾-梅琳達(dá)蓋茨基金會(huì)全球發(fā)展部常務(wù)董事。

Financial services are the lifeblood of an economy, enabling households and businesses alike to save, invest, and protect themselves against risk. Yet in many emerging economies today, the majority of individuals and small businesses lack access to basic savings and credit products, which hinders economic growth and perpetuates poverty. Two billion people in the developing world lack access to a bank, and 200 million small businesses cannot get the credit they need to grow, a gap estimated at $2.2 trillion.

The solution can be summed up in two words: digital finance, the idea that individuals and companies can have access to payments, savings, and credit products without ever stepping into a bank branch. This is possible through digitization, which can essentially turn a smartphone into a wallet, a checkbook, a bank branch, and an accounting ledger, all in one.

Financial inclusion could help boost economies, especially in parts of the world that need it most. Now is the time to make this a priority. The ubiquity of the mobile phone, even in remote areas in emerging markets, makes it possible to bring financial services to people who have never even considered opening a bank account. Already, mobile networks reach nearly 90% of people in emerging economies and 80% of adults have a mobile phone subscription.

Digital dramatically lowers the cost of providing financial services. Digital accounts can be 90% cheaper than conventional ones for banks and other providers to maintain, costing as little as $10 annually per customer. This makes it profitable to provide accounts for lower-income people. The long-held goal of financial inclusion — for individuals and for micro and small businesses — can now become a reality.

Our research shows that digital finance could enable 1.6 billion people in developing countries to access financial accounts, loans, and other financial necessities (and lower the cost and increase the convenience for the 2.4 billion who already have bank accounts). Many new customers would be among the poorest 40% of people in the world; more than half would be women. The balances that these new customers accumulate can then be loaned out, providing up to $2.1 trillion in new loans for individuals and micro, small and mid-sized businesses.

What’s more, we estimate that improving access to financial services could add $3.7 trillion to the GDP of emerging economies by 2025, or 6% — equal to 1.5 times the current GDP of all of Africa. The additional GDP could create up to 95 million new jobs. The lowest-income countries stand to gain the most, adding as much as 10% to 12% to their GDP.

There are several building blocks that need to be in place for digital finance to take off. One is the right infrastructure, which includes widespread phone ownership and network coverage at an affordable price; a robust digital payments system; and widely used ID systems preferably with digital authentication. What’s also needed is the right business environment where a range of providers can compete on a level playing field and innovative new digital finance products and services. This requires regulations that strike a balance between prudence to avoid undue risk, and innovation.

Businesses of all sizes stand to gain in big ways. Businesses could save 25 billion hours of labor by switching from cash to digital payments. Some 90% of transactions in the developing world are in cash, but having to protect piles of currency deters owners from expanding, since they cannot be in two places at once. Firms that accept or pay with mobile payments gain ready access to sales records, allowing for better inventory

management. In addition, digital payments create a data trail that enables lenders to assess the creditworthiness of even micro-enterprises.

Financial service providers have a big opportunity as well. They could cut costs by up to $400 billion annually by evolving from bricks and mortar to digital strategies. And because they can expand their customer base at relatively low cost, they could collect more than $4 trillion in new deposits—money that can be converted into loans. Savings that are currently stored under mattresses can be put to work, adding more activity and liquidity to the economy.

Governments benefit, too. Digital payments could improve their finances by reducing opportunities for corruption, targeting spending more precisely, and improving tax collection. We estimate that they stand to gain $110 billion per year by digitizing payments. Many government services, such as education and healthcare, stand to gain. For example, parents in the C?te d’Ivoire used to pay school fees in cash, but robbery and bribery were common. So beginning in 2011, the country began introducing mobile money payments. By 2014, nearly all school fees were paid digitally, mainly by phone. Parents and students no longer had to worry about being robbed—and more money made it into school budgets. Mobile money providers got new transactions, plus fees from the government. The education ministry saved money and gathered more and better student information.

While financial inclusion is far from inevitable, all the trends are moving in the right direction. The wireless infrastructure is mostly in place. The idea suits our times.