“Twitter接下來會怎樣？”

前幾天有人這樣問我。此前，Salesforce已公開表示放棄收購這家社交網絡先驅。和并購傳聞帶來的高點相比，Twitter的股價已下跌30%。據說谷歌、迪士尼和微軟也都無意收購。我的第一反應是：“哦，很簡單，它會變成一家僵尸公司。”

僵尸公司是指人們曾經感興趣但已加入“行尸走肉”行列的公司。軟件廠商賽貝斯就當過多年僵尸，后來被SAP收購。隨著旗下著名的智能手機停產，曾名為Research in Motion的黑莓公司最近也步入“僵尸”之列。號稱“社交”游戲公司的Zynga已在黑暗中苦苦摸索四年，然而該公司的房地產遠比它發布熱門游戲的前景更值錢。

Twitter市值仍達120億美元，但變“僵尸”已不可避免。盡管Twitter賬面上虧損嚴重，但這家公司的確產生了少量現金收入。虧損的原因為非現金支出——Twitter拿出了相當于30%收入給員工發放股份。小現金流，再加上規模巨大的資產負債表意味著Twitter還能撐幾年。但沒有增長，也不會盈利。Twitter用收入發股份，遵循的是令硅谷備受折磨的“第二十二條軍規”——不發股份就留不住人才，增長前景只會更加渺茫。

《財富》雜志高級撰稿人馬修·英格拉姆披露，一位對沖基金經理認為，應該由一家善于削減成本的私募股權基金收購Twitter。但這似乎不太可能，因為輕資產型科技公司一般不會甘心任由財務高手折騰。另一方面，云軟件領軍公司Salesforce首席執行官馬克·貝尼奧夫此前迫切希望收購，投資者反對也不是沒理由。他們認為收購Twitter后會影響財務狀況，畢竟Salesforce自己還沒盈利。

成為僵尸肯定不好玩，但是有些企業是可以這樣的狀態維持很長時間的。

先把這星期活過去吧。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

“What happens next to Twitter?”

That’s the question someone asked me the other day, after Salesforce.com CRM publicly swore off a bid to buy the pioneering messaging company. Twitter’s stock had fallen 30% from the peak of its deal-rumor-fueled high. Google ,Disney , and Microsoft MSFT were all said to be uninterested as well. My immediate response: “Oh, that’s easy: It becomes a zombie.”

A zombie is a company that people once were interested in that joins the ranks of walking dead. Software maker Sybase was a zombie for years before SAP SAP 0.26% finally bought it. Blackberry BBRY -1.60% , once known as Research in Motion, recently recognized its zombie status by discontinuing the product line that made it famous, smartphones. Zynga ZNGA -2.46% , the “social” gaming company, has groped in the dark for four years now, more highly prized for its real estate than its prospects to release hit games.

Its rich valuation of $12 billion notwithstanding, Twitter is on its way to zombiehood. Though Twitter TWTR -0.06% loses gobs of money, it does generate a small amount of cash. Its losses are a result of spending an amount equal to 30% of revenues on equity grants to its employees, a non-cash expense. The small cash flow plus an ample balance sheet mean Twitter could last for years. Yet it isn’t growing and doesn’t earn money. More, its compensation expense is a Silicon Valley-inflicted Catch-22: Without the stock grants it won’t be able to attract talent, further diminishing its growth prospects.

Fortune’s Mathew Ingram surfaced a hedge fund manager who thinks Twitter is ripe for buyout by a cost-cutting private-equity firm. That seems unlikely as asset-light tech firms don’t lend themselves well to financial engineering. There’s a reason, after all, that investors in Salesforce opposed the purchase CEO Marc Benioff was keen to make. They saw Twitter’s finances hurting the cloud software leader, which itself isn’t yet profitable.

Being a zombie can’t be fun. But the living dead tend to stay that way for a long time.

Have a lively week.