在人們普遍擔(dān)心美國股市或許過熱以及英國脫歐后歐洲陷入混亂的情況下，全球長期投資者對(duì)好消息望穿秋水。

上周出現(xiàn)了一些這樣的消息。阿根廷總統(tǒng)毛利西奧·馬克里在布宜諾斯艾利斯召開了為期三天的全球頂尖CEO和投資者會(huì)議，實(shí)際上就是宣布阿根廷再次開啟了招商引資大門。就在一年前，也就是馬克里贏得選舉前，這樣的會(huì)議還不可想象。阿根廷不僅面臨著重大經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)，而且還沒有清晰的“翻身計(jì)劃”，這讓全球的政治和金融精英們對(duì)在阿投資都不以為然。

馬克里在開幕式上致辭時(shí)承認(rèn)：“我們無法在一天、一年乃至一個(gè)總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)改變所有的東西，但重要的是我們開始朝著正確的方向邁進(jìn)。”全世界愿意聆聽這位新總統(tǒng)的“推介”，這件事本身就已經(jīng)意義非凡。

阿根廷的經(jīng)濟(jì)史既復(fù)雜又令人心碎。20世紀(jì)的最初幾十年中，阿根廷曾是世界上最強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一，但隨后一直處于無休止的起伏之中。這個(gè)國家自然資源豐富，但受政府管理不善等多種因素影響，阿根廷一直沒能充分發(fā)揮其經(jīng)濟(jì)潛能。

2015年當(dāng)選的馬克里得到了阿根廷工商界的支持，他上任后也立即按照競選承諾開始著力對(duì)付通脹，抑制外國投資流出，并為阿根廷重新成為南美經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國打下基礎(chǔ)。由于南美正在應(yīng)對(duì)巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治危機(jī)的余波，馬克里明智的經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政政策變得特別受歡迎。

公平的說，初期成果無疑是喜憂參半。馬克里剛剛宣布，他的政府或許無法實(shí)現(xiàn)將赤字削減4%的原定目標(biāo)，并且承認(rèn)必須在財(cái)政責(zé)任和節(jié)省開支之間求得平衡可能會(huì)影響阿根廷的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。能否在繼續(xù)降低赤字的同時(shí)仍向教育、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以及阿根廷至關(guān)重要的農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域投入資金，或許會(huì)在很大程度上決定馬克里的任期是否成功。這種微妙的平衡對(duì)決策者來說并非新挑戰(zhàn)，但考慮到阿根廷要擺脫的困境，這些抉擇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)異常的高。

阿根廷要走一段艱難的上坡路。今年的通脹率將超過40%，雖然制定增長計(jì)劃并聘請(qǐng)能干的經(jīng)濟(jì)決策團(tuán)隊(duì)讓馬克里備受贊譽(yù)，但彭博社指出：“[阿根廷]仍缺乏為生意人提供安全環(huán)境的法律框架。”

不過，就算短期指標(biāo)迄今尚未體現(xiàn)出馬克里改革派政策的效果，但精明的投資者都知道，最壞的階段已經(jīng)結(jié)束而復(fù)蘇尚未全面到來之際就是采取行動(dòng)的最佳時(shí)機(jī)。

阿根廷當(dāng)前的局勢(shì)或許正是如此。阿根廷央行最近的一次調(diào)查顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)2017年阿根廷通脹率將回落一半，今年下滑1.5%的GDP將在明年上升3.2%。世界銀行《全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，阿根廷的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在2016年結(jié)束，2017年的資本流入將不斷增強(qiáng)。

同時(shí)，盡管馬克里宣稱阿根廷“開門營業(yè)”尚未形成投資者和企業(yè)排隊(duì)等候的局面，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了一些確實(shí)很有希望的動(dòng)向。比如可口可樂和Axion Energy最近分別承諾將在阿根廷投資10億和15億美元；而阿根廷財(cái)政部得到的投資承諾總額已經(jīng)超過320億美元（盡管其中絕大多數(shù)還沒有兌現(xiàn)）。

馬克里和阿根廷民眾面前的道路絕非坦途。而且他已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)，財(cái)政改革就像疊疊樂游戲——一項(xiàng)善意舉動(dòng)可能帶來多個(gè)意外結(jié)果。此外，正如新的季度業(yè)績已經(jīng)顯露端倪時(shí)CEO們很難把注意力集中在長期策略上一樣，在新的選舉即將到來之際讓政界人士這樣做同樣具有挑戰(zhàn)性。阿根廷將在2017年10月進(jìn)行議會(huì)選舉，這將考驗(yàn)馬克里繼續(xù)改革的決心，就算這些改革會(huì)讓他在投票中失去盟友的支持。

如果馬克里態(tài)度堅(jiān)定，并且表明自己有勇氣為了長期利益賭上政治資本，阿根廷就有可能最終邁向真正而持久的復(fù)蘇。本周的投資峰會(huì)就是良好的第一步，它能讓整個(gè)世界相信馬克里的誠意。

作者艾倫·H·弗萊施曼是全球商業(yè)咨詢及策略性溝通企業(yè)Laurel Strategies, Inc.創(chuàng)始人、總裁兼CEO，并曾在美國國會(huì)外交事務(wù)委員會(huì)及其西半球附屬委員會(huì)擔(dān)任幕僚長。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

With broad concerns that the U.S. stock market may be overheated and turmoil in Europe following Brexit, long-term global investors are desperate for good news.

This week, we got some when Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, opened a three-day conference in Buenos Aires for top global CEOs and investors – effectively declaring that Argentina is once again open for business. Just one year ago, prior to Macri’s election, the prospect of such a gathering would have been unthinkable; the world’s political and financial elites would have scoffed at the notion of investing in a country that was not only facing severe economic challenges, but also had no apparent roadmap for turning things around.

In his opening remarks, Macri acknowledged that “we can’t change everything in a day or in a year or during one presidency; what’s important is that we’ve started going in the right direction.” The willingness of the global community to even listen to the new president’s pitch is a very big deal.

Argentina’s economic history has been complex and heartbreaking. After being one of the world’s most powerful economies in the early decades of the 20th century, Argentina has suffered through endless boom and bust cycles. The country is blessed with a bounty of natural resources, but a variety of factors – including governmental mismanagement – have kept the country from reaching its full economic potential.

Macri’s election in 2015 brought with it support from the Argentine business community, and he has followed through with his campaign promises by focusing the early hours of his presidency combating inflation, stemming the outflow of foreign investment, and laying the foundation for Argentina’s re-emergence as a South American economic powerhouse. Macri’s sensible economic and fiscal policies are especially welcome news in a region that is dealing with the fallout of Brazil’s economic and political crises.

To be fair, the early results have been decidedly mixed. Macri just announced that the government may not be able to meet its original goal of 4% deficit reduction, admitting the fine line the country must walk between fiscal responsibility and an austerity that could hinder growth. Whether Macri can continue reducing the deficit while still make necessary investments in education, infrastructure and the country’s critically important agricultural sector, may well determine the success of his presidency. This delicate balancing act is not a new challenge for policymakers, but given the hole Argentina is climbing out from, the stakes of these decisions are exceptionally high.

Argentina has a tough uphill climb ahead. Inflation will clock in above 40 percent this year, and while Macri gets high marks for establishing a roadmap for growth and hiring a team of talented economic policymakers, Bloomberg notes that “[Argentina] still lacks a legal framework that establishes a safe environment for doing business.”

But even if the short-term indicators have not thus far reflected Macri’s reformist policies, shrewd investors know that the best time to make a move is after the worst is over but before the recovery has begun in earnest.

That may be exactly what we’re seeing in Argentina right now. According to a recent survey by the country’s central bank, economists expect inflation to be halved in 2017, with GDP rising 3.2% next year after falling 1.5% this year. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects concurs, predicting that the recession will end in 2016 and capital inflows will strengthen through 2017.

And, while Macri’s declaration that Argentina is “open for business” hasn’t yet resulted in investors and businesses lining up around the block, there have been some genuinely promising developments – such asCoca-Cola and Axion Energy recently committing investments of $1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively. Altogether, the Finance Ministry has tallied more than $32 billion corporate pledges (though the vast majority of those checks have yet to be written).

No, the path forward for Macri and the Argentine people won’t be easy. And as he is already discovering, fiscal reform can be like a game of Jenga – one well-intentioned action can have a multitude of unexpected consequences. And just as CEOs have a hard time keeping focused on executing a long-term strategy with the next quarterly earnings report always on the horizon, it is challenging for politicians to do so with the next election coming soon. With Argentina’s legislative elections looming in October 2017, Macri faces a test of his fortitude to stay the course on reforms, even if those reforms cost his allies at the polls.

If Macri stands firm and shows the courage to risk political capital for the long-term good, Argentina could finally be on the verge of a true and lasting recovery. This week’s investment summit is a good first step in convincing the world that he means business.

Alan H. Fleischmann is the Founder, President & CEO of the global business advisory & strategic communications firm, Laurel Strategies, Inc., and the former Staff Director of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and its Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the U.S. Congress.