在周日舉行的9/11紀念儀式上，希拉里·克林頓突然病倒，這令已經非常混亂的2016年美國總統大選再添變數。克林頓的健康問題一直被陰謀論者抓住不放，而此次事件意味著她的健康問題已經成為名副其實的競選問題，也引發各界猜測，如果她無法繼續參選，將會發生什么。

首先需要確定的是，克林頓的競選團隊從未說過任何她會退選的話。也沒有任何證據證明，周日發生的事情，不止是臨時肺炎發作那么簡單。

克林頓的競選團隊稱，將很快公布關于這位候選人病歷的更多信息，她的發言人布萊恩·法倫在MSNBC的“安德里亞·米歇爾報導”（Andrea Mitchell Reports）中表示：“沒有其他未披露的病情；目前所知道的只是肺炎而已。”

但考慮到克林頓退選的風險，本文將介紹一下民主黨另選一位候選人時，可能會遵照的原則。

正如歷史學家約翰·布斯奇在一篇建設性的博客文章中所解釋的那樣，如果克林頓在選舉日之前退選，民主黨領導層應該負責選出替代人選。根據民主黨的章程，民主黨主席應召開會議，并由多數委員會成員選出一位提名候選人，如蒂姆·凱恩或喬·拜登等。現在，競猜游戲已經開始：

一旦提名候選人在選舉日之后、選舉人（選舉人由選民根據選舉人團制度推選產生，并根據選民意愿進行投票）舉行會議選出總統之前去世或退選，會造成更大的混亂。在這種不太可能出現的情況下，程序也是一樣的——民主黨的頭頭們要選出新的提名候選人；但這個結果可能更加不可預測，因為這意味著民主黨要選出一位不在選票上的候選人。

最后，如果民主黨提名候選人在選舉團投票和總統就職典禮期間趨勢，則會啟用美國憲法第20條修正案。憲法規定，總統去世，由副總統接任總統職務。

正如布斯奇所說，由于美國需要應對開國元勛們未能預見的情況，因此具體程序也會隨著時間的推移而發生變化。雖然候選人因健康問題退選的情況極其少見，但也并非沒有先例。在1972年總統大選期間，民主黨候選人喬治·麥戈文的競選伙伴托馬斯·伊格爾頓，在被曝出曾因抑郁和壓力入院治療的新聞后，便退出了競選。隨后，民主黨全國委員會召開會議，決定由和平隊隊長薩金特·施萊弗取而代之，但當時的選情急轉直下，最后麥戈文還是慘敗給了理查德·尼克松。（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

Hillary Clinton collapsed at the 9/11 memorial service on Sunday, delivering another jolt to the already chaotic 2016 Presidential campaign. The incident means Clinton’s health, long a fixation of conspiracy theorists, is now a bona fide campaign issue and raises the question of what happens if she cannot continue.

To be clear, the Clinton campaign has not said anything remotely indicating she will quit the race. Nor is there evidence the incident on Sunday was related to anything other than a temporary bout of pneumonia.

The Clinton campaign says more information about the candidate’s medical records will be coming soon but “there’s no other undisclosed condition; the pneumonia is the extent of it,” Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon said on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports.”

But given what’s at stake, here are the rules for how the Democrats would pick another candidate.

As historian John Buescher explains in a helpful blog post, it’s the job of the Democratic Party leadership to replace Clinton if she drops out prior to Election Day. Per the party’s by-laws, this would involve the Chairman calling a meeting and a majority of Committee members picking someone else — Tim Kaine or Joe Biden or, well, someone — to be the nominee. Already the guessing games have begun:

It gets a bit more messy if a nominee dies or steps down after Election Day but prior to the time the electors (the people voters choose to convey their choice for President under the electoral college system) meet to vote for President. In that unlikely event, then the process is the same — the Democratic party bigwigs pick who the new nominee would be; this outcome might be more unpredictable, however, since it would involve the choice of someone who is not on the ballot.

Finally, if the Democratic nominee dies between the time of the electoral college vote and the Presidential inauguration, then the Constitution’s 20th Amendment kicks in. It states the Vice President replaces a President who dies.

As Buescher notes, these processes evolved as the country came to grapple with scenarios that the Founding Fathers didn’t foresee. And while it’s very rare for candidates to leave for health reasons, it’s not unprecedented. During the 1972 campaign, Democratic candidate George McGovern’s running mate, Thomas Eagleton, dropped out after revelations he had been hospitalized for depression and stress. The DNC then met in order to replace with Peace Corps Director, Sargent Shriver but McGovern lost to Richard Nixon in a landslide.