今年8月，中國(guó)的出口額（以美元計(jì)價(jià)）較上年同期下跌了將近3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，就連上月從中國(guó)各個(gè)工廠大量出貨的iPhone 7也沒(méi)能阻住出口貿(mào)易額的下跌。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易額則略有上升，漲幅為1.5%。

不過(guò)在今天發(fā)布的中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)中還是顯現(xiàn)出了一些積極的跡象。2015年8月，中國(guó)曾一夜之間將人民幣貶值2%，用貶值的人民幣計(jì)算，當(dāng)時(shí)的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)自然要好看得多。如果現(xiàn)在我們也用人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的話，那么今年8月中國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易額實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)了將近6%，出口額更是躍升了11%，這也是中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額連續(xù)21個(gè)月收緊以來(lái)的首次強(qiáng)勢(shì)回彈，且進(jìn)口額和出口額都顯著超過(guò)了此前分析師的預(yù)期。

人民幣貶值顯然對(duì)出口貿(mào)易起到了一定的推動(dòng)作用，因?yàn)檫@樣一來(lái)，中國(guó)商品用進(jìn)口國(guó)貨幣計(jì)價(jià)時(shí)就會(huì)顯得更便宜。不過(guò)由于各大發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家普遍增長(zhǎng)緩慢，人民幣的貶值效應(yīng)也在一定程度上受到了削弱。匯豐銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱麗亞·王和李晶（音譯）今日在香港指出：“影響貿(mào)易的根本性問(wèn)題，如商業(yè)投資和全球增長(zhǎng)疲軟等，可能仍將繼續(xù)成為抑制外需的重要制約?！?/p>

從進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，一個(gè)最積極的跡象就是進(jìn)口量的增長(zhǎng)。在此前幾個(gè)月，中國(guó)的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易只是稍有好轉(zhuǎn)——這主要也是為了給中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在日益恢復(fù)的說(shuō)法背書(shū)。而且這種好轉(zhuǎn)也只是進(jìn)口價(jià)值的回升，而不是進(jìn)口量的回升——今年以來(lái)，由于國(guó)際油價(jià)和其它大宗商品價(jià)格上漲，迫使中國(guó)不得不花更多的錢(qián)去購(gòu)買(mǎi)同樣數(shù)量的商品。

但八月以來(lái)，中國(guó)的進(jìn)口商品數(shù)量也出現(xiàn)了顯著上升，這進(jìn)一步給看漲中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的觀點(diǎn)提供了支持，同時(shí)它也表明了中國(guó)的消費(fèi)需求可能確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了上漲。這種趨勢(shì)從最近的一系列工業(yè)和消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)查中也可看出。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Even Chinese factories cranking out new iPhone 7s couldn’t save the country’s exports from sputtering in August, when they fell almost 3% year over year when priced in U.S. dollars. Imports edged up slightly, rising by 1.5%.

But there was more positive news in today’s trade release than those figures indicate.

China devalued its currency overnight by 2% in August 2015, and when priced in the country’s cheapening yuan, the trade figures look a lot better. In yuan terms, August exports rose almost 6% and imports jumped 11%, after contracting for 21 consecutive months. Both export and import data also blew past analyst expectations.

It’s becoming clear that the cheaper yuan has helped exporters sell more of their stuff abroad, where Chinese goods have become less expensive when priced in local currencies. Still, this currency effect has been dampened by slow growth across developed countries. “The fundamental issues that weigh on trade, in terms of poor business investment and global growth, will likely continue be a drag on external demand,” HSBC economists Julia Wang and Jing Li wrote today in Hong Kong.

In terms of import data, one of the most positive takeaways is that import volumes rose.

In previous months, the slight improvement in imports—used to support the story of China’s recovering domestic economy—came from a rise in the the value of imports, not from growing volume. Oil and other commodity prices have risen this year, forcing China to spend more money to import the same amounts.

But in August, a sharp rise in import volumes supports the the idea that a brighter outlook for China’s economy and consumers might be for real. That outlook has shown up in recent surveys of industrial and consumer economies.