從投資者的角度來(lái)看，汽車業(yè)最糟糕的特性之一就在于它的可預(yù)測(cè)性。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，汽車公司會(huì)從中受益，而經(jīng)濟(jì)下行總會(huì)不可避免地拖累汽車銷量。

此時(shí)此刻，行業(yè)觀察家正在目睹這一幕，即便2017年的車型已經(jīng)開(kāi)始進(jìn)入經(jīng)銷商的車庫(kù)。今年上半年，汽車業(yè)的收入增長(zhǎng)7.8%，達(dá)到1518億美元。汽車和卡車銷量大有超越2015年的近1750萬(wàn)輛之勢(shì)。但是摩根士丹利分析師亞當(dāng)·喬納斯表示，現(xiàn)在的繁榮境況只是“一場(chǎng)加時(shí)賽”：在汽車業(yè)連續(xù)六年實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)后，今年8月汽車的銷量同比下滑4%。投資者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始猜測(cè)這場(chǎng)狂歡何時(shí)結(jié)束。今年，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500汽車制造商指數(shù)下跌了8%。通用、福特、菲亞特克萊斯勒、豐田——真見(jiàn)鬼，甚至還有科技寵兒特斯拉——的股價(jià)，都大大低于2014年或2015年的峰值。

那么，這些汽車廠商的股票注定要走上老路，從頂峰跌到低谷嗎？這次可能不會(huì)。隨著汽車成為創(chuàng)新的中心領(lǐng)域，汽車廠商上次陷入困境時(shí)并未出現(xiàn)的一個(gè)因素，將在這次發(fā)揮作用。顯然，這個(gè)因素就是無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)的發(fā)展，它將在不遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)顛覆汽車業(yè)的商業(yè)模式，改變汽車廠商和投資者的盈利途徑。盡管現(xiàn)在猜測(cè)哪家公司將在無(wú)人駕駛汽車領(lǐng)域的軍備競(jìng)賽中脫穎而出，還為時(shí)過(guò)早，但目前汽車廠商股價(jià)的下降循環(huán)，可以讓投資者以低廉的價(jià)格提早押下一些賭注。

汽車業(yè)知情人士認(rèn)為，在這個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)逐漸普及的世界，整個(gè)駕駛文化都會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變。愿意擁有汽車的人會(huì)變少，更多人只會(huì)在需要的時(shí)候去租車。表面上，這聽(tīng)起來(lái)像是汽車廠商的巨大災(zāi)難：汽車銷量降低，就意味著收入的下滑。

不過(guò)還有兩個(gè)因素可以緩解這種悲觀情緒。首先，任何轉(zhuǎn)變都是逐漸的、不完全的。共享汽車最適合的，是紐約或舊金山這類以交通擁擠著稱的大都市。其次，無(wú)人駕駛無(wú)法滿足所有司機(jī)的需求，所以汽車廠商在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，仍然會(huì)有巨大的“傳統(tǒng)”汽車消費(fèi)者群體。

此外，還有一些分析師認(rèn)為無(wú)人駕駛文化可能會(huì)給汽車廠商帶來(lái)盈利更豐厚的商業(yè)模式——不僅銷售汽車，還銷售服務(wù)。花旗集團(tuán)分析師伊泰·麥考利表示，汽車廠商不僅可以通過(guò)賣汽車（給消費(fèi)者和拼車服務(wù)提供商）獲利，還會(huì)利用你駕駛的“每一英里收費(fèi)”。福特或通用汽車可以把車賣給你或租給你，由于你不用開(kāi)車，他們還能再賣給你一些服務(wù)（例如流媒體電影）。麥考利表示，這種模式可以給汽車廠商帶來(lái)兩倍于現(xiàn)在的可變利潤(rùn)，更妙的是，它還能擺脫消費(fèi)者驅(qū)動(dòng)的高峰和低谷“循環(huán)”。

不過(guò)這種理論有一個(gè)巨大的問(wèn)題。海納國(guó)際集團(tuán)(Susquehanna International Group）分析師馬修·斯托弗表示：“必須有人創(chuàng)造一種強(qiáng)大的商業(yè)模式”，而目前還沒(méi)有人做到這一點(diǎn)。所以，盡管汽車制造商急切地想要開(kāi)發(fā)出這種商業(yè)模式——無(wú)論是通過(guò)合作、研發(fā)還是并購(gòu)，投資者依然會(huì)認(rèn)為在當(dāng)下購(gòu)買任何汽車廠商的股票，都意味著對(duì)如今汽車行業(yè)的一次賭博，以及對(duì)未來(lái)的投機(jī)式賭博。

在美國(guó)汽車業(yè)巨頭中，通用汽車對(duì)新一代駕駛技術(shù)的公開(kāi)投入最大。該公司給拼車服務(wù)商Lyft投資了5億美元，還斥資10億美元收購(gòu)了生產(chǎn)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車感應(yīng)器和軟件的硅谷初創(chuàng)公司Cruise Automation，此外還有一些其他投入。Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio公司投資組合經(jīng)理安妮·羅森表示，僅僅基于這些因素就投資通用汽車，將是“真正投機(jī)性的舉動(dòng)”。不過(guò)從其他因素分析，購(gòu)買通用汽車的股票卻是合理的選擇。在不到32美元的股價(jià)上，通用汽車目前的市盈率約為4倍，遠(yuǎn)低于行業(yè)平均值（9倍）——當(dāng)然，它更是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及標(biāo)普500指數(shù)荒謬的20倍市盈率。歡迎光臨汽車業(yè)循環(huán)的春天。通用汽車已經(jīng)承諾在2017年底前出資90億美元回購(gòu)股票，他們?cè)噲D讓投資者相信，即使衰退來(lái)臨，他們的收益仍會(huì)增加。斯托弗表示，“雖然你在上一輪衰退期破了產(chǎn)，市場(chǎng)下一次并不會(huì)放你一馬。”

如果投資者無(wú)意購(gòu)買通用汽車的股票，那么他們絕對(duì)早已拋棄了福特。在過(guò)去18個(gè)月，福特股價(jià)下跌了28%，部分原因在于該公司不合時(shí)宜地把賭注押在了環(huán)保汽車上。由于油價(jià)跳水，這類汽車的銷量并不好。截至8月，采用福特環(huán)保EcoBoost引擎的Fiesta和Focus的銷量在2016年已經(jīng)下滑了17%。而8月的福特汽車銷量也同比下降8%。斯托弗表示：“這只股票一直面臨巨大的壓力”，并補(bǔ)充道，福特下調(diào)盈利預(yù)期的舉動(dòng)說(shuō)明，“該公司已經(jīng)證實(shí)了這種憂慮。”

不過(guò)，銷量的走低并未讓福特停止謀劃自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)領(lǐng)域。該公司計(jì)劃在2021年推出一款沒(méi)有方向盤和腳踏板的汽車，目前正與四家初創(chuàng)公司就此展開(kāi)合作。摩根士丹利的喬納斯表示，這個(gè)相對(duì)讓福特在“人才競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”中獲得優(yōu)勢(shì)，因?yàn)樗麄円c蘋果、谷歌母公司Alphabet、其他科技公司，以及其他汽車巨頭爭(zhēng)奪軟件人才。

討論新一代汽車時(shí)，沒(méi)有人可以忽略特斯拉。在首席執(zhí)行官伊隆·馬斯克的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，這家先驅(qū)性的公司已經(jīng)通過(guò)其autopilot自動(dòng)駕駛功能為汽車植入了一些有限的無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)。與其他廠商不同，特斯拉并沒(méi)有受到經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的影響，因?yàn)樗麄兠鎸?duì)的奢侈品消費(fèi)者有能力掏出9萬(wàn)美元甚至更多錢來(lái)買車。其Model 3轎車起售價(jià)約為3.5萬(wàn)美元，預(yù)計(jì)將在2017年底上市。說(shuō)也奇怪，這款車可能會(huì)讓該公司更易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響，因?yàn)橐话闶杖氲南M(fèi)者也會(huì)成為他們的客戶。不過(guò)，考慮到特斯拉的盈利能力堪憂，以及《財(cái)富》已經(jīng)詳細(xì)披露的現(xiàn)金流問(wèn)題，許多投資者對(duì)特斯拉現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)分外警惕。特斯拉即將對(duì)SolarCity展開(kāi)的收購(gòu)，也給這只股票的投資前景蒙上了一層陰影。Argus Research公司的比爾·舍里斯基表示，未來(lái)的特斯拉不僅賣汽車和電池，還會(huì)賣太陽(yáng)能板，這會(huì)“稀釋整個(gè)故事”。

特斯拉的故事更加凸顯了一個(gè)事實(shí)：我們很難在上市公司中找到一家“純粹經(jīng)營(yíng)”無(wú)人駕駛汽車的特例。大多數(shù)后臺(tái)無(wú)人駕駛感應(yīng)器和軟件制造商都有相當(dāng)多元化的業(yè)務(wù)。例如，電子產(chǎn)品、引擎和安全系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)商德?tīng)柛９荆―elphi Auto-motive）的確生產(chǎn)無(wú)人駕駛汽車使用的感應(yīng)器，其中一些還被新加坡陸路交通管理局的試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目采用。但在該公司高達(dá)150億美元的總營(yíng)收中，無(wú)人駕駛業(yè)務(wù)的貢獻(xiàn)率還不到2%。喬納斯表示，隨著技術(shù)的發(fā)展，“我們認(rèn)為該公司占據(jù)了一個(gè)有利位置”，但它還無(wú)法成為德?tīng)柛?duì)抗汽車業(yè)傳統(tǒng)周期的“安全避風(fēng)港”。

MobilEye可能是唯一一家只開(kāi)發(fā)無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)的公司。該公司目前生產(chǎn)用于二級(jí)無(wú)人駕駛汽車的軟件和感應(yīng)器。按照監(jiān)管部門的分類，二級(jí)無(wú)人駕駛汽車可以實(shí)現(xiàn)一些自動(dòng)功能——你可能很快就能在經(jīng)銷商的車庫(kù)中看到這種汽車。不過(guò)隨著汽車廠商開(kāi)始自行研發(fā)軟件，MobilEye的市場(chǎng)占有率可能會(huì)下降。此外，其股價(jià)也并不便宜。

觀察未來(lái)十年汽車業(yè)的發(fā)展會(huì)是一件很有趣的事情。不過(guò)想要等到投資獲得重大回報(bào)，還需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。

做好長(zhǎng)期奮斗的準(zhǔn)備

自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)想要給汽車廠商和汽車供應(yīng)商帶來(lái)巨大的收入，可能還需要十年甚至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。不過(guò)這并沒(méi)有阻止業(yè)內(nèi)巨頭們摩拳擦掌地迎接即將到來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

通用汽車

大手筆：斥資10億美元收購(gòu)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)初創(chuàng)公司Cruise Automation，給拼車服務(wù)商Lyft投資5億美元。

大形勢(shì)：2016年上半年，其北美銷售額下跌11%，但股票的市盈率剛過(guò)4倍。通用汽車計(jì)劃回購(gòu)90億美元的股票，以此鼓勵(lì)投資者堅(jiān)守。

福特汽車

大手筆：計(jì)劃在2021年前推出一款沒(méi)有方向盤和腳踏板的汽車。

大形勢(shì)：福特的股價(jià)在過(guò)去18個(gè)月里下跌了近三分之一，其部分原因在于油價(jià)跳水——該公司在小型汽車上做出了大量投入，但隨著油價(jià)降低，小型車的人氣有所降低。當(dāng)然，下跌的股價(jià)也可能會(huì)漲回來(lái)。與此同時(shí)，福特提供了近5%的股息。

特斯拉

大手筆：收購(gòu)SolarCity可以降低特斯拉電池技術(shù)的成本，增加電池續(xù)航能力，還能帶來(lái)其他一些好處。

大形勢(shì)：針對(duì)大眾市場(chǎng)的Model 3將于明年年底上市。這可能會(huì)是公司實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。不過(guò)一些投資者擔(dān)心收購(gòu)SolarCity會(huì)讓該公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題。

德?tīng)柛?/strong>

One of the auto industry’s worst attributes, from an investor’s standpoint, is its predictability. While car companies benefit when the economy rises, the road always turns back downhill, and automobile sales inevitably shift into reverse.

Industry watchers can see this dynamic playing out right now, even as 2017 models begin to roll onto dealers’ lots. In the first half of this year the auto industry’s revenues hit $151.8 billion, up 7.8% from the previous year. Vehicle sales are on pace to top the nearly 17.5 million cars and trucks sold in 2015. But the current run is “in extra innings,” says Adam Jonas, an analyst for Morgan Stanley: After six years of almost uninterrupted growth, August car sales dropped a sobering 4% year over year. And investors are already anticipating the end of the party. The S&P 500 Automobile Manufacturer’s index has dropped 8% this year. Shares of General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler FCAU 1.49% , Toyota TM -1.16% —heck, even tech darling Tesla—are all well below their 2014 or 2015 peaks.

So are auto stocks doomed to the same old repetitive commute from peak to trough? Maybe not. As cars become the epicenter of innovation, there’s a factor in play this time around that was absent the last time carmakers struggled. That, of course, is the rise of autonomous-driving technology, which could upend the business model of the industry in the not-too-distant future—in ways that carmakers and their investors could profit from. While it’s far too early to pick winners in the self-driving-car arms race, the current down cycle in auto stocks could let investors place some early bets at bargain prices.

Auto industry ?insiders believe that in a world where self-driving tech becomes commonplace, the whole culture of driving will shift. Fewer people would own vehicles, and more would rent cars only when needed. (Think Uber, all the time, but driverless.) On the surface that sounds like a 70-car pileup in the making for automakers: Fewer car sales, after all, should mean less revenue.

But there are two factors that ease the pessimism. The first is that any shift will be both gradual and incomplete. Car-?sharing works best in densely packed cities like New York or San Francisco, for example. And autonomous driving won’t fit the needs of all drivers, so the automakers will still have a big “traditional” car customer base for a long time.

What’s more, some analysts believe an autonomous-driving culture may actually give automakers a more profitable business model—one in which they sell services as well as vehicles. CitigroupC -0.46% analyst ItayMichaeli says automakers will profit not just by selling vehicles (to consumers and to ride-sharing services) but also through “revenues per mile” driven. Ford or GM could sell you or rent you the ride, and sell you services you consume while you’re not driving (streamed movies, for example). Michaeli says this model could let car manufacturers bring in double the amount of variable profits that they make today, and better yet, move “beyond the cycle” of consumer-driven peaks and troughs.

There’s one big problem with this theory: “Somebody has to create a compelling business model,” says Susquehanna International Group analyst ?Matthew Stover, and nobody has done it yet. So while automakers angle to make it happen—whether through partnerships, R&D, or acquisition—investors should think of any present-day auto stock play as both a bet on today’s car industry and a very speculative bet on the future.

Among the companies with a big U.S. market presence, General Motors GM -0.12% has made the biggest public commitment to the new generation of driving tech. Along with other moves, it has invested $500 million in ride-sharing service Lyft and spent just over $1 billion to acquire Cruise Automation, a Silicon Valley startup that makes sensors and software for self-driving cars. Investing in GM based on those factors alone would be “a really speculative move,” notes Annie Rosen, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio. But it looks like a decent buy for other reasons. At under $32 a share, GM trades at just above four times earnings, which is far below the industry average of nine (and of course, far below the S&P 500’s absurd 20). Welcome to life in the auto cycle. GM has authorized $9 billion to buy back stock through the end of 2017: It’s trying to convince investors that it will still grow its earnings, even if a recession occurs. “When you went bankrupt last time” there was a recession, Stover says, “the market is not going to give you the benefit of the doubt.”

If investors have avoided GM of late, they’ve absolutely punished Ford Motor F 1.36% . Its shares have fallen 28% over the past 18 months, partly because the company made an ill-timed bet on eco-friendly cars, which haven’t sold as well since the price of gas plummeted. Through August, sales of the Fiesta and Focus, which feature Ford’s climate-friendly EcoBoost engine, are down 17% for 2016, and Ford’s sales for that month were down 8% year over year. “The stock has been under really great pressure,” says Stover, who adds that “Ford has validated the fears” by downgrading its outlook.

The sales slowdown hasn’t stalled Ford’s plans on the autonomous--technology front, though. The company has targeted 2021 as the year it will release a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, working with four startups to accomplish the feat. Morgan Stanley’s Jonas says that relatively speedy timetable is intended to give Ford an edge in the “fight for brains,” as it competes with Apple , Alphabet, other tech firms and the rest of Big Auto to attract software talent.

No discussion of New Age vehicles can leave out Tesla Motors TSLA 2.55% , since CEO Elon Musk’s pioneering firm already offers some—limited—autonomous technology in its cars through its autopilot feature. Tesla hasn’t been as vulnerable to economic cycles as other auto-makers, since its luxury-oriented customers can afford to pay $90,000 or more for a vehicle. Its Model 3 version, which will start at around $35,000, is scheduled for delivery in late 2017; that, oddly enough, could make the company more recession-sensitive, as average-income consumers become customers. But given its still hypothetical profits—and its growing cash-flow problem, which ?Fortune has detailed—many investors are wary of Tesla’s stock at its current prices. The company’s impending acquisition of SolarCity also muddies the investing outlook. The fact that a future Tesla would sell not only vehicles and car batteries but also solar panels “dilutes the whole story,” says Bill Selesky of Argus Research.

The Tesla saga just underscores how hard it is to find autonomous-driving “pure plays” among publicly traded companies. Most makers of back-end autonomous sensors and software are fairly widely diversified. For example, Delphi Auto?motive DLPH 0.43% , the big maker of electronic, engine, and safety systems, creates sensors for autonomous driving, including some used in a pilot project by the Singapore Land Transport Authority. But its autonomous efforts account for no more than 2% of its $15 billion in annual revenue right now. “We see them as well positioned” as the technology unfolds, says Jonas, but “not a safe haven” against traditional cycles in the auto market.

MobilEye may be the only pure autonomous play available. That company makes software and sensors that primarily work at what regulators call the tier-2 level of autonomy, where cars handle some functions on their own—the level you’re likely to see soonest on dealers’ lots. But as car companies build software internally, Mobileye’s market share could drop. Plus, the stock is not cheap.

The evolution of the auto industry over the next decade is going to be fascinating to watch. But it will be a long time before it creates any investing slam dunks.

Gearing up for a long drive

It’s likely to be a decade or more before self-driving technology makes a significant impact on the revenues of automakers and auto suppliers. But that isn’t stopping big companies in the field from souping themselves up for the race to come.

General Motors

Big Tech Plays: Spent just over $1 billion to buy self-driving tech startup Cruise Automation; invested $500 million in ride-sharing service Lyft.

Big Picture: North American sales jumped 11% in the first half of 2016, but the stock trades for barely four times earnings. GM plans $9 billion worth of stock buybacks to encourage shareholders to stick around.

Ford Motor

Big Tech Plays: Aims to release a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals by 2021.

Big Picture: Ford’s stock has tumbled by almost a third over the past 18 months, due in part to the oil crash—the company made a big commitment to smaller cars, whose popularity has declined as gas prices dropped. Of course, what goes down may come up again; in the meantime Ford pays a dividend of nearly 5%.

Tesla Motors

Big Tech Plays: Acquiring SolarCity in a move that, among other things, could make Tesla’s battery technology cheaper and more powerful.

Big Picture: The arrival of the mass-market-oriented Model 3 late next year could be the turning point that boosts the company to profitability. But some investors fret that the SolarCity deal could muck up the company’s finances.

Delphi Automotive

Big Tech Plays: Testing its sensors in self-driving cars in Singapore.

Big Picture: Self-driving tech accounts for no more than 2% of Delphi’s revenue, but its deep experience in automotive electronics and safety systems could give it an advantage in the long run. Morgan Stanley auto stock analyst Adam Jonas sees Delphi as “well positioned” for the technology’s evolution.