關于下一代移動技術（5G）的討論一直是雷聲大雨點小。整個無線通訊行業至今仍未就通用標準達成共識，監管機構也仍然在醞釀頻率分配和其它監管規則，因此5G時代可能還需要幾年的時間才能到來。

雖然5G還有很多問題尚未解決，然而在所有這些問題中最不明確的一個，則是該技術一旦成熟了，各大移動運營商屆時將如何推動該技術的商用。據傳5G網絡的下載速度可達到4G網絡峰值下載速度的十倍以上，但它也面臨著一些仍需攻克的挑戰，比如信號的遠距離傳輸以及對物體和建筑物的穿透性等問題。

美國的三大運營商Verizon、Sprint和T-Mobile都已對5G網絡的測試結果和可能的使用案例進行了討論。那么，5G的推廣重點究竟是手機、平板電腦、家用網絡服務、智能設備、“物聯網”，還是其他一些全新的東西？暫時還不得而知。

與此同時，高通、諾基亞和愛立信等硬件廠商也都著眼于5G時代繪制了各具特色的路線圖。

即便5G還存在著種種不確定性，但是“職業預言家”們的各種預測已經滿天飛了——他們就是那些靠發布預測為生的市場研究機構。雖然這些業內大神的預測經常嚴重跑偏（比如曾有人預言，到2016年，Windows系統將占據手機市場半壁江山），不過至少他們還是為行業的發展提供了一些參考標準。比如各路分析師對VR市場的銷量預測全都高得離譜，但他們最近也紛紛下調了銷量預期，這就我們提供了一個信號——VR技術的確是可能被炒作過頭了。

本周，總部位于美國波士頓的戰略分析公司（Strategy Analytics）就發布了兩份分析報告，對5G的推廣及5G設備市場的發展進行了預測。

戰略分析公司的一名主管肯·海爾斯在其中一篇分析報告中指出：“第一批商用5G手持設備將于2020年在韓國和日本少量出現，從2021年起，美國、英國、瑞典、阿聯酋和中國等國都將推出5G設備。到2022年，全球將售出數千萬臺5G手持設備，屆時5G設備占全部手持設備銷量的百分比將達到較低的個位數水平?！?/p>

該公司的分析報告還認為，早期的5G手機的價格將會很貴，而且續航時間也是個大問題，連接也不穩定，而且可能無法很好地兼容當前的4G LTE系統。但這些問題到2020年都將得到解決。到2025年，兼容5G網絡的手機的銷量將超過3億部。

這種一本正經的預測看起來似乎嚴謹，但現在卻無法證實。然而當你過幾年回頭看看，這個預測或許會顯得相當愚蠢。但不管怎樣，它還是為“5G熱”提供了一個可借鑒的參考標準。到了明年，戰略分析公司可能已經把2025年的預測修改成了2億部或4億部。

不過不管它明年被改成2億部還是4億部，它對2025年的5G手機銷量的指導意義并不大，但卻能從一定程度上說明在2016年和2017年，整個行業在5G技術的早期技術測試以及標準和規則的制定上取得了哪些進步。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

The next generation of mobile technology, known as 5G, remains years away, with the wireless industry still trying to reach agreement on needed standards and regulators still pondering spectrum assignments and other rules.

And with many questions yet to be answered, perhaps the most unmade decision of all is just how mobile carriers will proceed once the technology is ready. The 5G technology appears to provide connections 10 or more times faster than the current top download speeds, but it also faces challenges traveling over long distances and penetrating objects and buildings.

Verizon Communications , AT&T , Sprint , and T-Mobile ?have all discussed test results and possible use cases. Will they focus on 5G phones and tablets, home Internet service, smart devices, and the “Internet of things,” or something completely different? It’s too soon to know.

Meanwhile, manufacturers including Qualcomm, Nokia, and Ericsson are offering their own varied roadmaps for when 5G equipment will be ready.

But that kind of uncertainty doesn’t deter the professional prognosticators of the industry—the market research firms that make their living by making forecasts. And while those forecasts can be horribly off (who else remembers that Windows Mobile was going to conquer smartphones by 2016?), they do at least provide benchmarks along the way. Sales forecasts for the virtual reality market still seem insanely high, for example, but they have been going down lately, providing a signal that the tech likely has been overhyped.

So into the 5G breech steps Strategy Analytics this week, with a pair of reports forecasting how the rollout will proceed and how the 5G mobile device market will grow.

“While the first commercial 5G handsets will appear in small numbers in 2020 in South Korea and Japan, from 2021 more countries, including the U.S., U.K., Sweden, UAE, and China, will see their own launches,” says Ken Hyers, a director at Strategy Analytics, in one report. “By 2022 tens of millions of 5G handsets will be sold, and as a proportion of total handset sales will reach low single digit percentages.”

Early phones will be expensive and struggle with poor battery life, unstable connectivity and an inability to interact smoothly with earlier wireless standards like the current 4G LTE system, the firm warns. But these issues will be resolved by 2020 and 5G-compatible phone sales will exceed 300 million by 2025.

That kind of bold, line-in-the-sand numerical forecast is just the kind of precise but unknowable prediction that can look so foolish in the years to come. But it nonetheless provides benchmark of the 5G hype that can be useful. By next year, Strategy Analytics may have revised its 2025 sales prediction to 200 million or, perhaps, 400 million phones.

Either way, it will reveal less about actual phone sales in 2025 than it will about how much progress the industry made in 2016 and 2017 on the early technology tests and the needed standards and rules.