不久前，蘋果公司公布，過去兩個季度中第二次出現硬件銷量下滑。看到iPhone、iPad和Mac電腦銷售額全面下降，大家可能會認為蘋果或許陷入了恐慌。實際情況絕非如此。盡管硬件銷售額減少，但硬件和服務共同讓蘋果拿出了強勁的季度業績，實現收入420億美元，凈利潤78億美元。同時，該公司還有近2500億美元現金，可用于研發、產品和公司收購以及其他資本支出項目。

不過，iPhone銷售額連續第二個季度下降讓人擔心。要注意的一點是，在過去的這個季度中，所有廠商的個人電腦、平板電腦和智能手機銷售額均出現了滑坡。但金融和行業分析師對iPhone銷售額的下降非常關注。

iPhone仍是蘋果的最大收入來源。該公司2016財年第三季度收入為424億美元，其中240億來自iPhone。令人驚奇的是，服務成為第二大收入來源，實現銷售額近60億美元，上升了19%。接下來是Mac電腦和iPad，收入分別為52億和49億美元。其他產品（包括Apple TV和Apple Watch）實現收入22億美元。蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在最近的兩次業績發布電話會議上都著重指出了Apple Services在蘋果總收入中的作用，并將這項業務稱為蘋果的持續增長引擎。

上季度，服務占蘋果總收入的14%，高于一年前的10%。iPhone一直是蘋果唯一的主導型產品，約占收入的三分之二（12個月來，服務實現收入230億美元，僅上季度就帶來收入60億）。如今，服務已占銷售額的很大一部分。庫克對分析師表示，他預計服務業務“明年的規模將達到《財富》100強公司的水平”。

許多觀察人士都認為iPhone的銷售額已經見頂。過去兩個季度iPhone銷售額均告下跌，而且外界也不再像過去那樣頻繁上調iPhone銷售額預期。我不知道真實情況是否如此。雖然傳聞稱今年秋季亮相的新iPhone在設計上并無巨大創新，但大家仍可期待的是，它會有更好的屏幕、更好的攝像頭、更快的處理器以及可能更多的內存。同時，大家甚至有可能驚訝地發現，新iPhone具備幾個現有型號沒有的新功能。如果這些新功能有吸引力，數百萬電信服務協議到期的消費者也許會打算升級自己的手機。不過，大量小道消息稱蘋果希望等到2017年秋季，也就是iPhone問世10周年之際再推出全新產品。如果是這樣的話，這款全新設計的產品就有可能像某些人說的那樣再次為iPhone的增長帶來一個“超級周期”。

兩年前推出iPhone 6時蘋果就經歷了一個超級周期。之前的六年里，蘋果堅持采用3.5英寸和4英寸屏幕， 5英寸和5.5英寸屏幕的iPhone最終問世后，該產品的銷售和需求直線上升。iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus已經上市整整兩年。而在2015年第四季度，iPhone發貨量達到7400萬部，給蘋果帶來了創紀錄的利潤以及創紀錄的銷量。

無論能否開啟新的超級周期，蘋果都會繼續改進iPhone，這一點毫無疑問。每年，數百萬新老用戶都會購買iPhone，從而擴大蘋果的整個用戶群——這個群體有可能使用蘋果正在增長的服務業務。同時，還有一個因素也有利于蘋果的未來。

每天，人們都會越來越多地使用iPhone，他們使用蘋果app和服務的時間也在延長。蘋果對未來持樂觀態度而且知道自己的服務業務絕對會增長，這就是原因之一。蘋果知道，只要用了iPhone，人們就會被蘋果的app和服務生態系統牢牢拴住。

如今，iPhone已售出逾10億部，iPad和Mac電腦也有數億用戶。有了如此巨大的業務空間，有了被蘋果生態系統拴住的消費者以及相互協作的業務，人們就更有可能購買更多蘋果提供的服務。

此外，其他產品也有可能幫蘋果實現增長，并且提高它的硬件和服務業績。Apple TV仍在改進之中，Apple Watch也是如此。另外還有傳聞中的汽車項目。庫克還表示，蘋果的許多新產品甚至還不曾有人寫到過。蘋果公司沒有理由恐慌，相反，今后五年它會表現的相當穩定，甚至會再次實現迅猛增長。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

Apple?last week?reported?the second decline in hardware unit sales in the last two quarters. With sales down on iPhones, iPads and Macs, you would think that?Apple?might be in a panic. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Even with that decline in hardware sales, with combined hardware and services Apple??still posted a strong quarter, with $42 billion in revenue and $7.8 billion in new income. It also has close to $250 billion in the bank for use on R&D, company and product acquisitions and other capital expenditures.

But the fact that iPhone sales were down for two quarters in a row is cause for concern. Keep in mind sales of PCs, tablets and smartphones were down for everybody in this last quarter. Still, Apple’s lower iPhone sales are being watched by financial and industry analysts very closely.

The iPhone is still Apple’s biggest source of revenue, making up $24 billion of the $42.4 billion for the third fiscal 2016 quarter. But amazingly, services has nabbed second place, rising 19% to nearly $6 billion in sales, followed by Mac computers at $5.2 billion, the iPad at $4.9 billion and “other” (which includes Apple TV and the Apple Watch) at $2.2 billion. In the last two earnings calls, Apple CEO Tim Cook put a major emphasis on the role of Apple Services in Apple’s overall revenue, saying that Services continue to be a growth engine for the firm.

Services in the latest quarter represented 14% of Apple’s total revenue, up from 10% a year ago. This has been a company dominated by one product—the iPhone—which has represented about two-thirds of revenues. (In the last 12 months, Services have generated $23 billion; Apple made $6 billion in revenue just this last quarter.) But now Services is such a huge chunk of sales, Cook told analysts that he expects the division to “be the size of a Fortune 100 company next year.”

Many observers have suggested that iPhone sales have peaked. Sales for iPhones have fallen in the last two quarters and people are not upgrading as frequently as in the past. I am not sure that is true. While rumors suggest that the new iPhone coming out this fall may not have a significant new design, you can still expect it to have a better screen, better camera, faster processor and possibly more memory and we could even be surprised to see a couple of new features that are not in current models. Also, there are millions whose current carrier contracts expire and may still want to upgrade if this new iPhone has the kind of new features that are a draw. However, there is a lot of scuttlebutt about Apple wanting to wait until the fall of 2017 to launch a completely new iPhone design that would mark the 10th anniversary of the iPhone. If so, a completely new design of the iPhone could drive what some are calling a “super cycle” of iPhone growth again.

Apple last saw a super cycle when it introduced the iPhone 6 two years ago. After keeping screen sizes around 3.5 inches and 4 inches for 6 years, Apple finally introduced an iPhone in 5 inch and 5.5-inch form factors, and sales and demand for iPhones skyrocketed. By the end of the second full year of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus being on the market, that holiday quarter of 2015 saw Apple shipping 74 million iPhones which gave the company record profits as well as record unit sales.

Regardless of whether Apple can spur a new super cycle or not, there is no doubt that Apple will continue to advance the iPhone. Each year millions of current and new users will still buy iPhones, adding to the overall base of users who can tap into Apple’s growing services business. But there is one other factor that also bodes well for Apple’s future.

People are also using iPhones more and more each day and staying longer when using Apple’s apps and services. This is one of the reasons Apple is bullish on the future and knows that the services business will only grow. It knows that once you have an iPhone you become hooked on Apple’s ecosystem of apps and services.

Apple has now sold over 1 billion iPhones and has hundreds of millions of users of iPads and Macs. With a universe that large, when people are tied to an Apple ecosystem where everything works together, they are more likely to buy more things that are part of Apple’s Services offerings.

Apple also has other products that could still help it grow as well as help boost its hardware and services earnings. Apple TV is still a work in progress, as is the Apple Watch. There’s also the rumored car project. Add to that the fact that Cook says there are many new products in the pipeline that people have not even written about, and you have an Apple that has reason not be in a panic, but rather is looking at quite steady if not spectacular new growth in the next five years.