眼下最讓投資者解不開的謎，莫過于中國經濟的走向。中國經濟官方數據的可信度很低，政府對經濟的干預又十分強勢，搞得各路分析師紛紛撓頭，弄不清中國經濟的增速到底多快，也說不好當前中國經濟活動出現的變化究竟是私人部門崛起導致的，還是官方干預的結果。

去年夏天，滬指一度暴跌超過40%，此后官方的經濟增長數據也逐步下滑，越來越多的人開始支持這樣一個論斷：中國經濟是一個被債務和政府投資吹起的大泡泡，現在這個泡泡已經被戳破了。本周中國經濟又傳來了更多不利的消息：中國的財新制造業采購經理人指數跌至49.2，這說明中國的制造業正在收縮。這令中國和各大新興市場都陷入了恐慌。

雖然中國經濟即將“硬著陸”的論斷去年著實忽悠了不少人，但傳說中的硬著陸其實并未到來。咨詢機構高頻經濟（High Frequency Economics）的首席經濟學家卡爾?溫伯格認為，我們對中國經濟還是應該抱有一些希望的。雖然一些唱衰中國者對中國經濟的一些指標深感悲觀（如工業增長停滯），但如果從另一個角度解讀的話，中國經濟目前遇到的或許也只是普通的周期性低迷，同時這可能也是中國從制造型經濟向富裕的服務主導型經濟轉型的過程中不可避免的陣痛。“哪一個G7國家不想把經濟增長率數字和中國換一換？”他還指出，即便是按最悲觀的預期，中國的經濟增長速度也是美國的兩倍。

與此同時，還有一些可靠消息源表示，中國的經濟增長勢頭仍然強勁，顯現出了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。有一個驚人的跡象可以說明中國經濟的生錢速度有多快——中國現在每年的資本輸出額達到了1萬億美元。也就是說，中國投資人每年買下的外國資產，大約相當于一個墨西哥的經濟產出。除了中國以外，真不知道世界上還有哪個國家能有這樣大的手筆。 （財富中文網）

本文還將刊發于2016年6月15日刊的《財富》雜志上。

譯者：樸成奎

There are few mysteries more confounding to the modern investor than the Chinese economy. Official statistics are so mistrusted and government intervention so rampant that analysts can’t agree on how fast the economy is growing or whether shifts in economic activity are evidence of private-sector strength or bureaucratic meddling.

Last summer’s 40% decline in the Shanghai Composite stock index, followed by steadily declining official growth statistics, has added credibility to the argument that China’s economy is a punctured bubble, inflated by debt and government--sponsored investment and quickly heading toward collapse. This week there was more bad news, with the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index falling to 49.2, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector is in contraction. Cue widespread panic over China and emerging markets in general.

But as much as this “hard landing” theory has gained adherents over the past year, a collapse has yet to come. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at consultancy High Frequency Economics, calls for a little perspective when it comes to the country. The indicators that bears find so damning (industrial sector stagnation) can also be interpreted as evidence of an economy experiencing a humdrum cyclical downturn and of China’s transition from a -manufacturing-based economy to a wealthy, services-driven one. “What G-7 country wouldn’t trade its growth rate for China’s?” he asks, pointing out that even the most pessimistic estimates of Chinese GDP growth are twice that of the U.S.

Meanwhile, there are encouraging signs from credible sources that China’s economy is still strong. One stunning sign of how much cash China’s economy is producing is the fact that the country continues to export $1 trillion in capital a year. That means Chinese investors are buying in foreign assets roughly what the entire Mexican economy produces each year. If only the rest of the world had similar problems.

A version of this article appears in the June 15, 2016 issue of Fortune.