據(jù)芝加哥商業(yè)交易所集團(tuán)（CME Group）發(fā)布的消息稱，上周四，國(guó)際原油價(jià)格近6個(gè)月以來(lái)首次超過(guò)了50美元/桶。

近幾個(gè)月來(lái)的油價(jià)反彈聽(tīng)起來(lái)是個(gè)好消息。因?yàn)樽詮娜ツ晗奶扉_(kāi)始，人們就經(jīng)常把股市下跌的黑鍋扣在油價(jià)疲軟上。

然而這一論斷總是有些違背常識(shí)的。低廉的油價(jià)應(yīng)該會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)起到刺激作用，因?yàn)檩^低的能源價(jià)格使得企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者能夠有更多的資金用于消費(fèi)其他商品。但油價(jià)的下跌也意味著需求下滑。實(shí)際上，股市在過(guò)去18個(gè)月中一直保持疲軟這一事實(shí)，表明了很多投資人都將原油價(jià)格的走低解讀為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家需求疲軟和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷于停滯的結(jié)果。

既然現(xiàn)在油價(jià)又開(kāi)始上漲了，我們是否可以認(rèn)為，這對(duì)市場(chǎng)和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息？

至于油價(jià)上漲對(duì)股市有無(wú)提振作用，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明：“或許沒(méi)有什么作用。”請(qǐng)看下方由比安科研究公司（Bianco Research）的策略師吉姆?比安科提供的這幅圖表，它主要體現(xiàn)了油價(jià)與標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的相關(guān)性。

according to the CME Group.

The rally in oil prices over the past several months sounds like great news. Ever since last summer, stock-market declines have been routinely blamed on weak oil prices.

The argument was always a bit counterintuitive. Cheap oil should be a stimulus for the global economy, as lower energy prices give businesses and consumers more money to spend on other things. But falling oil prices can also signal collapsing demand. Indeed, the fact that stock prices have stayed flat for the past 18 months suggests investors were interpreting the drop in crude as a sign of weak demand in the wealthy world and of a flagging economy in China.

So now that oil prices are on the way up, should we expect that to be good news for the market and the American economy?

When it comes to stocks, the latest data says, “Maybe not.” Take a look at this chart from strategist Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, which studies the correlation between stocks and the S&P 500:

從圖中可以看出，在2016年年初的這段時(shí)間里，油價(jià)與股市是有相當(dāng)大的相關(guān)性的，此后則并非如此。那么究竟出了什么問(wèn)題呢？

比安科表示，這完全是由于信貸危機(jī)導(dǎo)致的。他在一封致客戶的信里寫(xiě)道：“隨著油價(jià)跌至35美元以下，很多人開(kāi)始擔(dān)心能源板塊會(huì)出現(xiàn)信貸違約，從而影響銀行業(yè)以及總體市場(chǎng)。因此在這段時(shí)間，股市與油價(jià)之間的相關(guān)性是很高的。”

因此，隨著油價(jià)走高并且跨過(guò)35美元大關(guān)，我們可以預(yù)計(jì)，油價(jià)對(duì)股價(jià)的影響將會(huì)更小。

但油價(jià)的此輪上漲對(duì)總體經(jīng)濟(jì)有何影響？

在美國(guó)部分地區(qū)，影響還是相當(dāng)大的。比如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)近日的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2016年第一季度，汽車貸款的不良信貸率出現(xiàn)了近三年來(lái)的首次上升。如果仔細(xì)分析一下這一數(shù)據(jù)，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種上升幾乎全部集中在一些產(chǎn)油地區(qū)，而這些產(chǎn)油區(qū)有6%的就業(yè)率依賴于能源開(kāi)采。油價(jià)的上漲顯然會(huì)令這些地區(qū)松一口氣，因?yàn)楦哂蛢r(jià)會(huì)刺激能源企業(yè)開(kāi)采更多的能源。

然而除此之外，鮮有證據(jù)表明在過(guò)去一年半里，能源價(jià)格的搖擺對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)整體有多大的影響。在油價(jià)猛跌的日子里，居民的消費(fèi)支出水平并未出現(xiàn)顯著變化。LPL金融公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰?康納利指出：“汽油價(jià)格的大幅下降，并未像一些人預(yù)計(jì)的那樣，對(duì)總體經(jīng)濟(jì)或消費(fèi)部門產(chǎn)生較大的提振作用，總體經(jīng)濟(jì)目前也仍然在努力恢復(fù)階段。另外它也沒(méi)有改變大體上不溫不火的消費(fèi)支出節(jié)奏。實(shí)際上，自從27個(gè)季度前的‘大蕭條’結(jié)束時(shí)（即2009年第2季度）起至今，消費(fèi)支出只累計(jì)增長(zhǎng)了16%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于前三次經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇期的頭27個(gè)季度的30%的水平——這三次經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇也和今天的情況最有可比性。”

比石油價(jià)格更重要的，是就業(yè)和工資水平的增長(zhǎng)。幸運(yùn)的是，在原油市場(chǎng)近期持續(xù)波動(dòng)期間，美國(guó)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)始終保持著較為強(qiáng)勁的水平。那么工資水平是否顯著上漲了？很不幸，美國(guó)人民還在翹首企盼中。但隨著油價(jià)的走高，漲薪潮應(yīng)該也不會(huì)太遠(yuǎn)了。 （財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

As you can see, oil and stocks were pretty heavily correlated during the early part of 2016, but otherwise are not. So what’s going on?

Bianco says that it’s all about credit risk. “Oil prices below $35 lead to concerns of a credit event in the energy patch impairing banks and the overall market,” Bianco writes in a note to clients. “In these times the correlation between stocks and oil is high.”

Therefore, as oil prices climb farther away from that critical $35 threshold, we should expect the price of oil to matter less to stock prices.

But what about the overall economy?

In certain regions of the country, it may matter a lot. Recent data from the Federal Reserve, for instance, showed that delinquencies on auto loans had risen in first quarter of 2016 for the first time in three years. If you parse the data, however, you’ll find that the increase was almost all concentrated in oil-producing counties, where more than 6% of employment was dependent on energy extraction. Rising prices will surely provide relief in these areas, as higher prices encourage energy explorers to produce more.

But otherwise, there’s been little evidence during over the past near year and a half that the U.S. economy is affected much by swings in energy prices. As oil dropped precipitously, consumer spending levels didn’t change significantly.” The big drop in gasoline prices did not, as some expected, provide a big lift to the overall economy or the consumer sector, which continues to struggle in this recovery, nor did it change the overall tepid pace of consumer spending,” writes John Canally, economist with LPL Financial. “In fact, since the end of the Great Recession 27 quarters ago (the second quarter of 2009), consumer spending has only increased by a cumulative 16%, well under the 30% gain in the first 27 quarters of the last three economic recoveries, which are the most comparable to today’s recovery.”

Much more important than oil, it seems, is job and wage growth. Luckily, job growth has remained strong throughout the recent drama in oil markets. Significant wage gains? Americans are still waiting for those. But rising oil prices won’t delay the raises any longer.