自從現任印度總理莫迪2004年上臺以來，許多“財富500強”企業的CEO都將目光瞄準了印度。與此同時，許多投資者都對中國的經濟放緩表示擔憂。然而中國的經濟增長率與印度相比，仍將是毫不遜色的。

美國一些聳人聽聞的報道將中國經濟描述為“行將就木的巨龍”，稱中國經濟即將走向崩潰。這種觀點實在過于負面了。中國在基礎領域的一些優勢，意味著即便其經濟增長率在短期內將有所放緩，但它在未來幾年里仍能保持6%到7%的水平。而美國要達到同樣的增長率，簡直是做夢。

印度的經濟也將保持較快的增長，然而卻不太可能達到莫迪所期望的水平。印度松散的政治體制意味著莫迪政府無論出臺怎樣的改革政策，也無論這些政策的目的多高尚，都不可能像中國那么快地見成效。

必須正視的是，世界經濟實力的天平已經開始向中國和印度的方向傾斜。隨著兩國經濟改革步伐的進一步加快，中印在全球經濟領域的話語權也將進一步加大。到2030年，中印兩國將分別成為全球第一和第三大經濟體。兩國的中產階層人口數量也將分列全球第一和第二名——當然，這些龐大的中產人口也是美國企業眼中的香餑餑。同時，中印兩國對自然資源和能源的需求，以及其二氧化碳的排放量，也都將是全球之首。

經過30多年的發展，鄧小平于80年代提出的“中國特色社會主義”經濟體系的弊端已經逐步顯現。過度投資、國有企業效率低下、政府債臺高筑和貧富差距拉大等現象都是亟待解決的問題。不過中國經濟也存在著一些有利因素。首先，中國擁有大量自然資源、資本和勞動力。其次，較高的國民儲蓄率意味著中國無需依賴于朝秦暮楚的外部資本。再次，雖然中國人口老齡化的速度很快，但在未來幾十年里，中國仍將擁有充足乃至過剩的勞力，況且政府還在有意延長相對較低的退休年齡，并且放松了既有的獨生子女政策。憑借13億多人口的龐大內需市場，中國抵御外部經濟風險的能力也要強于那些體量較小的經濟體。

但是，中國經濟的確面臨著相當嚴峻的挑戰。中國經濟能否保持長期增長，取決于國家主席習近平能否繼續推動關鍵的市場改革，而非注重短期的刺激。

中國共產黨深知它必須打造一個更大的消費階層，但這是需要時間的。大多數中國居民更加注重儲蓄而不是消費，因為他們尚未擁有真正的社會保障網絡。中國政府正在著力解決這個問題。一方面中國正在修建更多的學校，另一方面，政府每年都將醫療支出加大10%以上，并著力建立健全養老金體系，以減輕居民贍養年老父母的壓力。另外，開放二胎政策也是有助于促進消費的，因為二孩家庭顯然有更多的支出。這些改革已經見到了初步成效，目前，中國家庭消費的增長速度已經達到了GDP增長率的一倍半。

如果中國的改革家們能夠將中國經濟轉型為接近真正市場機制的市場，那么中國憑借龐大的國內市場、日益增長的內需以及較高的國民儲蓄率，仍能實現經濟的健康增長。雖然與改革開放前幾十年的飛速增長期相比，增長速度可能會有所下降，短期內經濟增幅甚至有可能下降至4%乃至更低，但用不了幾年，中國的經濟年增率又將回到6%到7%的軌道。

與中國相比，印度則更加任重而道遠。盡管在2014年印度大選莫迪勝選后，曾有多達19,000名莫迪粉聚集在麥迪遜花園廣場高喊他的名字，但是在他的領導下，印度經濟一直沒能實現人們期待的那種高速增長。在中國，在中央政府的強力推動下，即便是一些艱難的改革方案也能夠得以推行。印度則和中國不同，各色各類的利益集團吵吵嚷嚷，阻礙了很多重要的經濟改革措施的實施。另外，由于莫迪的印度人民黨在議會上院中并不占據多數，導致莫迪政府在能源、基礎設施建設乃至勞工政策等許多關鍵領域的議案無法獲得議會通過，因此莫迪政府也就無法輕易開展改革。

當然，在莫迪及其執政團隊的勇敢嘗試下，印度經濟近來的表現也是可圈可點的。比如莫迪已經開放了更多的外資準入部門。另外，企業目前已經可以在網上申請多種執照和許可證，從而一方面提高了效率，另一方面也減少了腐敗。此外，2014年以來，印度政府已經承諾斥資 520億美元，對該國的公共基礎設施進行全面升級。這是一個很好的開端，不過據一些專家預測，印度要想全面對公路、鐵路、機場和港口等基建設施進行升級，至少要1萬億美元才敷用。

在執政的第一年里，莫迪政府也運氣極佳地打破了一些紀錄，交出了一份相當搶眼的答卷：2015年，印度經濟增長速度達到7%以上，幾十年來首次超越了中國。另外，受國際油價走低的影響，2015年，印度的通脹率也下跌了一半以上。而隨著投資者將創歷史新高的420億美元投入印度股票及債券上，等待多時的股市改革預計也將終于拉開序幕。

不過，印度經濟的可持續增長速度可能將低于樂觀人士的預期。一些有利于企業更輕易地購買土地、聘用和解聘工人的法案，和一項旨在簡化繁瑣的稅收體系的重要法案，已經在印度議會擱置了近兩年，至今尚未通過。

盡管莫迪在世界各地演講時，不遺余地推銷他的“印度制造”理念，但印度在制造業的實力上，仍然遠遜于中國等國家。

即便面臨經濟放緩的困局，中國在2014年仍然創造了1300多萬個新增工作崗位，而在同一時間段里，印度卻連100萬個新增崗位都沒能創造出來。而對于印度來說，能否創造大量新增工作崗位，對于吸收未來幾十年快速膨脹的勞動力人口是至關重要的。印度在教育問題上也面臨著嚴峻的挑戰。要解決這個問題，第一步是要修補其千創百孔的教育體系，而這至少需要對一二百萬名新增教師進行培訓。

莫迪的熱情高漲的改革如果能夠得以持續，那么印度將能夠釋放相當一部分潛能，其經濟增長率也能夠超過中國。未來幾年，印度的經濟很可能會繼續維持5%到7%的增長勢頭。雖仍無法超過中國，但也是了不起的成績了。到2030年，印度有可能將成為世界第三大經濟體——雖然其規模仍遠遜于中美兩國。屆時它也將擁有全球第一或第二大規模的中產階級人口，并成為除中國以外，亞洲最主要的經濟增長引擎。

本文作者安佳?馬尼勒也是《美麗新世界：印度、中國與美國》一書的作者。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Despite the attention many Fortune 500 CEOs have paid to India since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, China’s growth will continue to rival its Asian neighbor even as investors worry that its economy is slowing down.

U.S. headlines have called China’s economy the “Doomed Dragon,” predicting it is headed for disaster. This sentiment is too negative. China’s fundamental strengths mean that even if growth slows in the short-term, it will likely keep growing at an annual rate of between 6% and 7% in a few years; rates the U.S. would only dream of.

Asia’s other rising giant, India, will also grow quickly, but is unlikely to perform quite as well as its popular Prime Minister Modi hopes. India’s decentralized political system means that no matter how well-meaning, the Modi government cannot achieve change nearly as quickly as the Chinese.

Nonetheless, the economic weight of the world has already shifted in China and India’s direction. It will continue to do so as their economic reforms move forward. By 2030, China and India, respectively, are expected to be the first and third largest economies in the world, with the largest middle classes that U.S. companies will wish to sell to. They will lead the world in demand for natural resources and energy, and be its largest carbon emitters.

The limits of “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” the economic system established by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, are now becoming clear. Over-investment, inefficient state-owned enterprises, mounting government debt and growing inequality are unsustainable. However, several factors weigh in China’s favor. The economy is large with plenty of natural resources, labor and capital. Its high savings rate means that China doesn’t have to rely on fickle external capital. In spite of its rapidly aging population, China will still have surplus labor for at least the next few decades. Moreover, the government is raising artificially low retirement ages and relaxed its one-child policy. With more than 1.3 billion consumers, China’s large internal market makes it less sensitive to external economic shocks than small economies.

Yet there are real headwinds. China’s long-term growth will depend on whether President Xi continues to push forward with key market-friendly reforms, instead of prioritizing short-term stimulus.

The Communist Party knows it must build a larger consumer class, but this will take time. Most Chinese still save more than shop because they have no real social safety net. The government is moving to fix this. It is building more schools , spending well over 10% a year more on healthcare and shoring up the pension system so that families will be less burdened by caring for elderly parents. Allowing Chinese to have more children will also help boost demand: two-child families spend far more money. These reforms are already paying off. Household consumption is growing at one and a half times the rate of China’s GDP growth.

If China’s reformers are able to move the economy closer to a true market system, a big internal market, growing consumption, and high savings will help the country grow. While the pace will slow, possibly even to 4% or lower in the short term, it is reasonable to assume that in a few years China will be back to 6% to 7% annual growth.

India has further to go. Despite the 19,000 people chanting Prime Minster Modi’s name in Madison Square Garden just after his 2014 election, he was never going to be able to deliver on these very high expectations for growth. Unlike in China, where the central government can push through tough compromises, a noisy collection of interest groups stall many key economic reforms. Modi’s BJP Party does not have a majority in the upper house of Parliament, and many key issues, such as energy, infrastructure, and even many labor policies, are reserved for the states and cannot be changed easily from Delhi.

Modi and his team have been trying valiantly with some success: he has opened more sectors to foreign investment and companies can now obtain many licenses and permits online, making the process faster and less susceptible to corruption. India’s government has agreed to invest $52 billion in to upgrade the country’s creaking infrastructure since 2014. This is a great start, but by some estimates India needs $1 trillion for new roads, rails, airports and ports.

Modi also had some lucky breaks in his first year that helped him deliver stellar growth: in 2015, India’s economy grew more than 7%, faster than China for the first time in decades. Due mostly to lower international oil prices, India’s inflation rate fell by more than half in 2015. The stock market boomed as investors poured a record $42 billion into Indian stocks and bonds, expecting that reforms would finally start.

However, sustained progress will be slower than India optimists predict. Key legislation that would make it easier for companies to buy land, to hire and fire workers, and an important law to simplify India’s byzantine tax system have been held up in Parliament in Delhi for nearly two years.

Despite Modi’s speeches around the globe to promote growth through his “Make in India” campaign, India is still far behind countries like China in the push for manufacturing might.

Even with a slowing economy, China created more than 13 million jobs in 2014, while India struggled to achieve even a million. These are jobs India needs to absorb its rapidly expanding workforce in the coming decades. India also has the herculean task of educating its young people. A first step towards this requires fixing its broken education system, which will require training between 1 and 2 million new teachers.

If Modi’s zealous reforms continue, India can unlock some of its latent potential and grow faster than China. It is more likely that the current trajectory of 5% to 7%growth continues. Although it won’t surpass China, this is an impressive achievement: by 2030, India will likely be the world’s distant third-largest economy, with the largest or second-largest middle class, and Asia’s key economic engine outside China.

Anja Manuel is the author of This Brave New World: India, China, and the United States.