埃隆?穆斯克對大規模生產電動汽車的追求，不僅顛覆了傳統汽車市場，也撼動了作為汽車原料的金屬市場。

這一趨勢體現最明顯的便是鋰市場，因為鋰正是電動汽車所用的鋰離子電池的主要原料。目前，汽車行業對鋰已經出現了明顯的供不應求。據《華爾街日報》（The Wall Street Journal）報道，今年第一季度，碳酸鋰（一種制取鋰的中間產品）的價格已經比2015年的平均價格上漲了47%。據《華爾街日報》引述數據供應商基準礦業情報（Benchmark Mineral Intelligence，以下簡稱BMI）的數據顯示，去年全年，鋰金屬的價格上漲了28%，而同期道瓊斯工業金屬指數和鉑與貴金屬指數均下跌了40%以上。

鑒于目前純電動車只占全球機動車總量的比例還不足1%，因此市場對鋰的需求的潛在增長將是不可估量的。《華爾街日報》引用了高盛（Goldman Sachs）的一份報告稱，10年內，市場對鋰的需求可能將翻三番，達到每年57萬噸。穆斯克本周早些時候曾表示，特斯拉（Tesla）要想滿足年產50萬輛電動汽車的目標，“基本上需要吸收全世界的鋰離子產量。”

這一需求增長很可能出現，而特斯拉只占其中一部分而已。據BMI指出，到2020年，中國的鋰離子電池產能將達到美國的2倍。特斯拉公司在內華達州開辦的“超級工廠”雖說很可能是全球正在興建中的最大的鋰離子電池工廠，但除它以外，全球正在興建的此類項目至少還有11個。

其它從電動汽車行業的發展中獲益的金屬可能還包括銅和鋁。電動汽車對銅的用量是傳統汽車的四倍。另外，為了降低車重和燃油消耗，許多公司也開始大量使用鋁來替代車身鋼材（比如福特的F-150，以及特斯拉Model S的全鋁合金框架）。另外，據研究機構工業礦物（Industrial Minerals）估算，光是特斯拉的“超級工廠”每年就將需要93,000噸的片狀石墨來生產電極用的電極，相當于每年要消耗掉六座石墨礦山。而這也將有力地刺激石墨行業改良已經成為行業標準的低效開采方法（據工業礦物公司（IM）估算，開采出的石墨原料高達70%都被浪費了）。

鋰元素在地殼中的儲量相對來說是比較豐富的，但一般很難開采，因為鋰的提煉制取技術需要因地制宜，一塊礦床和另一塊礦床很可能使用的是不同的開采技術。全球已探明的最大鋰礦位于波利維亞，不過要想將這里鋰礦運到最近的港口，就必須穿越安第斯山脈，否則就要繞過南美運往大西洋。

有人可能會覺得，有了這種幾乎全新的用途來提振金屬的礦產需求，采礦行業肯定會熱情高漲，因為目前這個行業幾乎是在全線后退之中。然而事實上，隨著業內許多之前盲目上馬的項目被關停（其中一些還是當初由于對中國未來需求的盲目樂觀而建立的），行業能否為新項目籌集到幾十億美元的資本，目前看來希望比較渺茫。除此以外，過去一些年，也不乏許多新概念一度被炒得火熱，結局卻令人失望的例子。這個怪圈也害苦了不少獨立采礦公司。（閱讀《財富》對這些公司去年所面臨的麻煩的報道，請點擊此處。）

此外，隨著內燃發動機逐步被鋰離子電池取代，數十億美元投入其它金屬開采的投資也將受到重大影響，比如鉑和鈀等金屬，它們都是催化轉換器中不可或缺的催化劑，對凈化傳統汽車的尾氣起著重要作用。而電動汽車用不到這種催化轉換裝置。據《華爾街日報》引述澳大利亞采礦公司South32的CEO格拉哈姆?科爾的話稱，隨著電池技術繼續出現新的進步，有些原本“流行一時”的金屬，很有可能最終會落個靠邊站的命運。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Elon Musk’s quest for the mass-produced electric car isn’t only disrupting the traditional auto market—it’s shaking up the markets for the metals that go into cars too.

The trend is most evident in the market for lithium, which is used in the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles. Already, growing demand from the auto industry is starting to outrun supply. According to The Wall Street Journal, prices for lithium carbonate, an intermediate product in the refining of lithium, were up 47% from the average price in 2015 in the first quarter of this year. It cited figures from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a data provider, showing that prices for lithium rose 28% last year, in which time the Dow Jones Industrial Metals index and the Platinum and Precious Metals index both fell over 40%.

Given that pure EVs account for less than 1% of all vehicles on the world’s roads, the potential growth in demand for lithium is dizzying. The WSJ cites a Goldman Sachs report suggesting that demand could triple within 10 years to 570,000 tons a year. Musk said earlier this week that for Tesla to meet its target of 500,000 cars a year, “we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.”

And Tesla represents only a fraction of the likely demand growth. According to BMI, China will build twice as much new lithium-ion battery capacity as the U.S. by 2020. Tesla’s ‘Gigafactory 1’ in Nevada may be (comfortably) the biggest factory being built, but it is only one of at least 12 such projects across the world, BMI says.

Other metals that could also profit from evolution in the sector could be copper (EVs use four times as much as a conventional car) and aluminum—a material that companies are turning to to replace steel in order to cut overall weight and fuel consumption (think of Ford’s F-150, as well as the all-aluminum frame of Tesla’s Model S). At the same time, research house Industrial Minerals reckons that Tesla’s Gigafactory alone could need some 93,000 tons a year of flake graphite to make anodes for its batteries. That would be the equivalent of six new mines—a powerful incentive for industry to improve the inefficient methods that are the current industry standard (IM reckons up to 70% of raw graphite mined is wasted).

Lithium is relatively abundant in the earth’s crust but often hard to get to, and the technology needed to extract it can differ from one deposit to another. The world’s biggest resources, in Bolivia, would have to cross the Andes to reach the nearest seaport, or else face a long journey across South America to the Atlantic.

One would think that an almost completely new source of mineral demand ought to be met with enthusiasm in a mining sector that is in near-universal retreat at the moment. But the prospect of raising billions of dollars in capital for fresh projects at the same time as the industry is shuttering earlier ill-judged ventures—some of which were predicated on optimistic new paradigms ultimately based on guesswork regarding future Chinese demand—is daunting. And a number of independent miners have fallen prey to the usual cycle of hype and disappointment around such new dawns (to readFortune‘s story from last year on their troubles, clickhere).

Moreover, the displacement of the combustion engine by the lithium-ion battery has serious implications for the billions of dollars sunk into other mines that extract metals such as platinum and palladium, which end up in catalytic convertors to clean exhaust fumes. The WSJ quoted Graham Kerr, CEO of Australian mining company South32, as reluctant to invest in lithium, something that is “flavor of the month” but which could be rendered obsolete by other, as-yet unknown advances in battery technology.