科技行業轉折點來臨。蘋果公司的銷售額和利潤13年來第一次出現滑坡，導致金融市場暴跌，蘋果的市值也隨之蒸發430億美元。高科技世界就是這樣大起大落。

2016年第一季度，蘋果68%的收入都來自iPhone，iPad和Mac電腦各自只占9%。蘋果成了一家純粹的手機供應商，但過度依賴單一產品實現增長的風險愈發明顯。

在史蒂夫·喬布斯治下，蘋果一直在搶占自家產品的市場。2005年iPod Mini仍有巨大需求時，蘋果就推出了iPod Nano，截斷了iPod Mini的收入。在iPod依然銷售火爆之際，喬布斯將集iPod、手機和上網功能于一身的iPhone投入市場。iPhone上市三年后，iPad又出現在人們面前，看起來有可能侵占Mac臺式機的銷售額。蘋果在上馬高利潤業務迎接不確定的未來時總是很堅決，就像喬布斯反復說的：“如果你不搶自己的市場，別人就會搶走。”

這條箴言顯然已經隨風而去。

蒂姆·庫克上任后，蘋果利用在新興市場的地位繼續高歌猛進。中國在蘋果收入中所占的比重從2011年的9%升至2014年的29%。更讓人擔心的是缺乏新產品。Apple Watch尚未闖出名堂，蘋果就推出了現有產品的多個變體，比如iPhone 6s和6s Plus、iPad Pro、Air 2、Mini 4和Mini 2。經理人往往會擔心新產品和服務直接侵蝕現有產品和服務的銷售額，如今蘋果可能也陷入了同樣的思維模式。

消費電子產品就像商業界的果蠅，變化迅速而且生命周期很短。這種環境基本不容許出現戰略性錯誤。對市場的誤讀會造成利潤下降；多失誤幾次企業就會沒戲。

矛盾的是，采取保守策略并設法保護和維持現有產品也不是辦法，頂多只能推遲企業走下坡路的時間。必須在核心業務顯露成熟跡象前找到下一個增長點。最好的辦法可能就是像喬布斯一樣，管理產品生命周期時將自家產品相互競爭作為指導原則。

全球最大胰島素制造商諾和諾德首席執行官索文森似乎也同意這個觀點。他在接受采訪時說：“如果我們最終能治愈糖尿病，很大一塊業務會消失，但我們會感到驕傲，而且一定能找到別的事做。我們將成為醫藥行業里社會貢獻最大的公司，那會是件了不起的事。”

霍華德·于是洛桑國際管理發展學院戰略管理和創新系教授，專攻技術創新、戰略轉型和管理調整。2015年，工商管理類資訊網站Poets & Quants將于教授評為全球40位40歲以下最佳教授之一。他在哈佛商學院獲得博士學位。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

The tech world is witnessing a turning point. Apple just saw its first decline in sales and profits in 13 years, triggering a selloff in the financial market that wiped out $43 billion of the company’s market value. Such is the rough-and-tumble play of the high-tech world.

As recent as in Q1 2016, 68% of the company revenue came from the iPhone, while the iPad and Mac each commanded merely 9%. Apple is first and foremost a mobile phone provider, which in turn highlights the danger of overreliance on a single product for growth.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple AAPL -2.85% had a track record of cannibalizing its own products. In 2005, when the demand for the iPod Mini remained huge, the Nano was launched, effectively destroying the revenue stream of an existing product. And while iPod sales were still going through the roof, Jobs launched the iPhone which combined iPod, cell phone, and Internet access into a single device. Three years after the iPhone’s launch, iPad made its debut and raised the prospect of cutting into Mac desktop computer sales. So resolute was Apple’s determination in trading a highly profitable business for an unknown future that Jobs reportedly said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.”

That mantra has apparently disappeared.

With Tim Cook, Apple has experienced unmitigated growth by exploiting its market position in emerging countries. Revenue from China has grown from 9% of Apple’s overall revenue in 2011 to 29% in 2014. More worrisome is the lack of new products. While the Apple Watch has yet to make significant inroads, consumers saw the proliferation of different models of existing products: iPhone 6s and 6s Plus; iPad Pro, Air 2, Mini 4, and Mini 2. What managers often fear most is a company’s new products and services with lower profit margins directly cutting into the sales of existing ones. Apple is now in danger of falling into the same pattern of thinking.

Consumer electronics are the fruit flies of the business world. Change is rapid and life cycles are short. In such an environment, there is little room for strategic mistakes. Misreading the market leads to diminished earnings; misreading it a few times, the company is sent packing.

Paradoxically, pursuing a conservative strategy and trying to protect and extend existing products is not an option either. It only delays decline. One must develop the next growth engine before the core business begins to show signs of maturity. And the best rule of thumb is perhaps to follow Jobs’ footstep of imposing cannibalization as a guiding principle to manage product life cycle.

Lars S?rensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk—the world’s largest maker of insulin—seems to agree. “If we wind up curing diabetes, and it destroys a big part of our business, we can be proud, and you can get a job anywhere,” he said in an interview. “We’ll have worked on the greatest social service of any pharmaceutical company, and that would be a phenomenal thing.”

Howard Yu is professor of strategic management and innovation at IMD. He specializes in technological innovation, strategic transformation and change management. In 2015 Professor Yu was featured in Poets & Quants as one of the Best 40 Under 40 Professors. He received his doctoral degree at Harvard Business School.