在競相開發自動駕駛汽車的過程中，美國和歐洲在技術上處于領先位置，但中國正沿著“外道”迅速追趕上來，而且中國的監管機制有可能讓自動駕駛汽車率先在中國的公路和城市道路上得到普遍應用。

清華大學汽車工程系教授李克強表示，相關路線圖草案最快有望在今年公布，內容包括在3-5年內推出可以在公路上行駛的自動駕駛汽車，以及到2025年推出適于城市行駛的自動駕駛汽車。李克強是該路線圖起草委員會主席，這個委員會則得到了工業和信息化部的支持。

該草案將設定相應技術標準，包括車輛相互通信使用的通用語言、基礎設施和監管原則，從而形成一個統一的框架，這和美國各州自行設定法律和標準的混亂局面完全不同。

美國國家公路交通安全管理局前局長大衛?思特里克蘭德本月在北京的一次活動上表示，如果不進行協作，上述混亂局面可能阻礙自動駕駛汽車在美國的發展。

這種自上而下的做法可能幫助中國超越美國和歐洲。在歐美國家，行業標準通常由汽車廠商協商確立。同時，推廣自動駕駛汽車和電動汽車符合中國政府的經濟轉型方向，即擺脫重工業和低端制造，讓高科技和消費行業為經濟增長提供動力。

長安汽車自動駕駛汽車項目負責人黎予生指出，“如果我們說服政府讓所有公司以及所有上路車輛都必須遵循這個（統一標準）……中國就有機會超過其他國家”，讓自動駕駛汽車得到廣泛使用。

中國出現自動駕駛汽車的條件已經成熟。作為全球最大汽車市場，中國深受空氣污染、交通堵塞和違章駕駛問題困擾。世界衛生組織估算，中國每年有超過20萬人死于交通事故。

私家車遍地開花的現象在中國出現的較晚，中國消費者往往也不像西方人那么愛開車。2015年，世界經濟論壇的調查顯示，75%的中國人表示愿意乘坐自動駕駛汽車，在美國這個數字為50%。波士頓咨詢公司預計，20年內中國將成為世界上最大的自動駕駛汽車市場，至少占全球需求的四分之一。

上述路線圖草案將首先向行業以及各部委征集意見，隨后提交國務院審批。

路線圖起草委員會成員、同濟大學汽車學院教授白杰說，該委員會將在最基本的層面上定義“自動駕駛”汽車，并確立最基本的功能。

從另一個角度來看，中國打算把目標定的更遠一些。委員會主席李克強指出，許多車輛已經借助數字蜂窩技術實現了聯網，中國或許會用這項技術來進行汽車通訊，而不是歐美國家使用的專用短程通信技術（DSRC）標準。

他說：“美國、歐洲和日本用了很長時間來開發DSRC，所以它們大力向中國推薦這項技術。我們才剛剛起步，為什么不選擇LTE（長期演進無線寬帶技術）或5G呢？”

按照這項初步規劃，中國至少能和其他開發自動駕駛汽車的國家并駕齊驅，甚至實現超越。

豐田汽車的目標是到2020年在市場上推出可在公路上自動行駛的車輛。奔馳已在這方面研究了20年，目前的計劃是推出某些情況下需要駕駛者控制的自動駕駛汽車。

李克強說，一些中國汽車廠商的內部目標和上述路線圖草案相符，比如上汽集團以及福特的中國合作伙伴長安汽車，它們也向路線圖起草委員會派遣了專家，外國汽車制造商則沒有這樣做。

當然，要決定全球自動駕駛市場的步調，中國還有一段路要走。

李克強指出，該委員會目前只是在研究自動駕駛汽車的法律問題，比如事故的責任認定。

吉利集團董事長李書福曾說，中國必須修改法律，處于自動駕駛狀態的車輛發生事故時，責任要由汽車廠商承擔，而非駕駛者?！叭绻⒎üぷ髀浜?，自動駕駛汽車就很難在中國銷售。”

行業咨詢機構IHS Automotive分析師杰里米?卡爾森指出：“在政府支持下，中國汽車行業當然有可能取得顯著進展。但在技術開發領域還有很多問題，要確保它是安全的，而這就意味著要有一定量的行駛檢驗?！?/p>

本周開幕的北京車展（4月25日-5月4日）前，長安汽車的兩輛自動駕駛原型車行駛了2000公里，從長安汽車的重慶總部開到了北京。

這兩輛車的駕駛位置上都坐著測試工程師，但他們都沒有干預車輛行駛。在自動系統引導下，兩車在公路上以每小時80公里的速度行進，并根據交通狀況和限速標志調整速度，同時保持在車道中間行駛。這和已經上市的特斯拉汽車的自動駕駛性能基本相當。

黎予生預計，2-3年內市場上就會出現自動駕駛車型。同時，到2020年長安汽車將為開發自動駕駛技術投入50億元資金。該公司還在和互聯網巨頭百度商談開發自動駕駛技術事宜。

北京師范大學教授Wang Yanmin（譯者注：這個查不到中文，保留了拼音）說：“科技公司和汽車廠商的交叉領域值得關注?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

In the race to develop self-driving cars, the United States and Europe lead in technology, but China is coming up fast in the outside lane with a regulatory structure that could put it ahead in the popular adoption of autonomous cars on its highways and city streets.

A draft roadmap for having highway-ready, self-driving cars within 3-5 years and autonomous vehicles for urban driving by 2025 could be unveiled as early as this year, said Li Keqiang, an automotive engineering professor at Tsinghua University who chairs the committee drafting the plan. The panel is backed by the powerful Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The draft will set out technical standards, including a common language for cars to communicate with each other and infrastructure, and regulatory guidelines—a unified framework that contrasts with a patchwork of state laws and standards in the United States.

Without coordination, that patchwork could hold back the development of self driving cars in the U.S., David Strickland, a former safety chief for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said at an event in Beijing this month.

China’s top-down approach could see it overtake the U.S. and Europe, where automakers have generally been left to agree among themselves on industry standards. A push for self-driving and electric cars also fits with Beijing’s shift to an economy driven by high-tech and consumer industries rather than heavy industry and low-end manufacturing.

“If we can convince the government that every company, every car on the road must use this (single standard)…then there is a chance China can beat the rest of the world” to the widespread use of self-driving cars, said Li Yusheng, head of Chongqing Changan Automobile’s autonomous drive program.

China is ripe for the advent of self-driving cars. It’s the world’s biggest autos market and is blighted by choking air pollution, traffic congestion and often erratic driving. More than 200,000 people die each year in road accidents, according to World Health Organisation estimates.

As relative newcomers to mass car ownership Chinese also tend not to share the West’s love affair with driving. In a 2015 World Economic Forum survey, 75% of Chinese said they would likely ride in a self-driving car, versus half of Americans. Within 20 years, China will be the largest market for autonomous features, accounting for at least a quarter of global demand, says Boston Consulting Group.

The China draft would be opened up for industry comment and input from a range of ministries, ultimately going to the State Council, or cabinet, for approval.

At a most basic level, the committee will define a “self-driving” car and set a minimum level of functionality, said Bai Jie, a professor at Tongji University who also sits on the expert committee.

In other respects, China plans to be more ambitious. It may adopt cellular data technology—already used in many cars to access the Internet—for cars to communicate, rather than the dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) standard used in the U.S. and Europe, said Li, the panel chairman.

“The U.S., Europe and Japan spent so much time developing DSRC, so they strongly recommend it for China,” Li said. “Here, we’re just beginning so why not choose advanced technology like LTE (Long Term Evolution wireless broadband technology) or 5G?”

China’s provisional timeline would put it at least in line with, if not ahead, of others developing self-driving cars.

By 2020, Toyota Motor aims to market a car that can drive by itself on highways, and Mercedes, after two decades of research, plans to launch a self-driving car, though drivers would be required to take control in certain situations.

Chinese automakers including SAIC Motor and Ford Motor’s local partner Changan have internal targets that match the likely draft roadmap, and are represented on the experts committee, Li said, while foreign car makers are not.

To be sure, China has some way to go to become a global pacesetter in autonomous driving.

Li, the committee chief, said the panel was only now looking into legal issues around self-driving cars, such as who is liable in any collision.

Li Shufu, chairman of automaker Geely, has said China must revise its laws so the manufacturer, not the driver, is held responsible for accidents when a car is in self-drive mode. “If (our) legislation lags behind, self-driving cars will be difficult to sell in China,” he said.

“It’s certainly possible for the Chinese auto industry to make significant headway with government backing, but there’s still a lot going into developing that technology, making sure it’s safe, and that means a certain number of miles driven,” said Jeremy Carlson, an analyst at consultancy IHS Automotive.

Ahead of next week’s Beijing autoshow, Changan took a couple of its prototype self-driving sedans for a 2,000 km (1,243 mile) trip from its Chongqing headquarters to the Chinese capital.

With a test engineer behind the wheel, but with his hands in his lap, the automated system guided the car along the highway at 80 km per hour, adjusting speed for traffic and speed-limit signs, while keeping centred in its lane—roughly on par with the self-drive capabilities of Tesla TSLA 2.20% models already on the market.

Changan’s Li said a self-driving model should be on the market in 2-3 years, with the automaker spending 5 billion yuan ($773 million) to further the technology by 2020. It is also in talks with Internet giant Baidu on developing automated driving technology.

“The intersection between technology companies and automakers is the space to watch,” said Wang Yanmin, a professor at Beijing Normal University.