蘋果在走下坡路:庫克該學學星巴克了
蘋果首席執行官蒂姆?庫克正帶領公司告別過去的輝煌,走上一條截然不同的道路。隨著iPhone一路暢銷,占據業內主導地位,蘋果的股價一路高漲,也攫取了手機市場高得驚人的利潤份額。競爭對手們要么大幅虧損,要么獲利微薄。蘋果市值達到5550億美元,其中約90%的市值由手機業務貢獻。 而今,不少緊追慢趕的對手都在努力從蘋果口中搶食。美國政府也盯著庫克要解鎖iPhone。美國聯邦調查局希望獲得iPhone的加密數據,協助追查在加州南部城市圣貝納迪諾犯下槍擊兇案的極端分子。庫克拒不接受,認為加密才是保護消費者隱私的正當行為。當然,與聯邦政府打持久戰是所有管理者揮之不去的噩夢。 五年前庫克被任命為首席執行官時,蘋果的市值為3600億美元,銷售額1080億美元。如今,該司的營業收入持續增長至2340億美元,盡管最近股市動蕩,其市值仍增加了將近2000億美元。史蒂夫?喬布斯領導蘋果的最后五年里,公司的營業收入暴增五倍,達到1080億美元,市值在610億美元的基礎上增加了六倍。 庫克在任期間,iPhone的市場占有率和全球用戶大幅增長,即便喬布斯在世估計也會為發展勢頭驕傲。不過喬布斯最廣為人知的名言是:“成為墳墓里的首富對我而言并不重要。能在晚上睡覺前說一句‘今天我們做了些了不起的事’,這才是我在乎的。” 而蘋果現在亟需的就是做出新的“了不起的事”。 其他知名企業的首席執行官也面臨類似的艱巨挑戰,竭力堅持公司的核心價值,不斷創造價值。除了跟美國聯邦政府抗爭,庫克主要精力都放在努力讓蘋果重拾增長上。 上周,意大利毛衣奢侈品牌創始人布魯奈羅?庫奇內利在旗下公司上市不久后告訴我,新加入的投資者對他說:“給我們增長30%。”庫奇內利創立公司不僅僅是為了銷售和盈利。他的宗旨是一視同仁地對待本地供應商,給予員工遠超市場水平的薪資,確保在商業世界里珍視并強化的“人性”的一面。他自稱公司監護人,而不僅是首席執行官,對于提出無理增長要求的新投資者,庫奇內利怒目而視。庫奇明確告訴他們,10%已經是很可觀的增長,任何更高的增長都是在炒作公司。他兌現了承諾,而且他相信現在的選擇會為公司指明未來50年乃至更久以后的發展方向。 在2000年短暫“退休”八年后,霍華德?舒爾茨重新執掌星巴克首席執行官的帥印。走馬上任后,他讓所有星巴克門店關門一天。退休期間,星巴克為了追求銷售與盈利增長20%承受了巨大壓力。2008年回歸管理層后,舒爾茨決定,公司要更強調速度、服務和產品質量。 在致星巴克員工的一份備忘錄中,舒爾茨為“星巴克的體驗走下坡路”和“品牌的商業化”惋惜。當時,星巴克的同店銷售滑坡,消費者排名下滑,舒爾茨堅稱要重新強調品質管控和體驗,可謂大膽之舉。舒爾茨明確了公司的價值觀,推動全盤改造、有計劃的擴張,促進員工與客戶之間有人情味的互動。 舒爾茨二度掌舵以來,星巴克的市值猛增六倍,達到880億美元。如今的星巴克在大力擴張、樹立全球品牌形象、先于同行投資電子會員卡、開辟新的經營時段,增強核心業務實力,表現都超出預期。 美國天然食品零售巨頭全食超市的聯席執行官約翰?麥基也曾經做過無異于豪賭公司未來的重大決策。他的新計劃提出全盤調整,推出產品搭配較少、提供給有限客戶服務但價格更低的新品牌,名為“365全食超市”。麥基還出版了一本書,說服美國民眾選擇接近未經加工的食品,主要選用富含植物蛋白、全麥、豆類、果蔬的飲食。這又是一項有悖大眾直覺判斷的行動:加工食品歷來是傳統雜貨商的核心盈利源。假如365全食超市獲得成功,將轉為向美國6000萬中等收入家庭提供服務,而不再僅服務于收入最高的2000萬家庭。這一轉型將推動公司的下一輪發展。 全食超市的銷售額已經停滯在140億美元。麥基希望通過徹底改造讓公司邁上增長的新臺階。在有些市場,同店銷售額要么持平要么略有下降。為了公司股票的市盈率保持高位,維持上行走勢,全食超市要至少實現5%的實際增速。如果不開創二線品牌,全食超市可以選擇強行降價,但那么做必定會影響公司價值:公司高于市面平均水平的利潤來自高利潤的方便食品、售價不菲的滋補品,以及每平方英尺銷售場地銷售額和凈價更高的新鮮食品、魚類和肉類。全食超市的營業利潤是一般食品連鎖零售店的三倍,每平方英尺銷售場地銷售額也能達到一般水平的三倍。 上述企業領袖都對領導所在公司很是滿意,也為員工制定了道德準繩。他們相信品牌的地位并不穩定——如逆水行舟不進則退,品牌要發展就得靠不斷開創和革新。 史蒂夫?喬布斯有一句名言:“如果今天是生命中最后一天,我還會想做今天要做的事嗎?”而后他建議:“不要掉進患得患失的陷阱……一定要遵從內心。” 三星、LG、華為、宏達電子(HTC)都在覬覦蘋果的地位。依靠容易預期的慢慢改良再也不能高枕無憂。 對于蘋果這種頂著巨大的成功光環又強敵環伺的公司來說,實現可持續增長需要遵循以下嚴苛的法則: 了解客戶沒有明說的潛在需求、使用情況,以及不滿之處。要了解他們每一次輕聲議論,每一次情緒波動背后的真實想法。提供讓客戶驚喜的解決方案。自身獨樹一幟是一方面,也要確保吸引用戶的關注。 專注于了解對公司最重要的2%用戶。他們熱愛你的公司并且真心擁護。要對這些鐵粉了如指掌,對他們的忠誠表示感謝,回饋獎勵。要給他們高調贊美你的理由,然后把身邊朋友都拉過來成為用戶。 商業活動要沖擊視覺感官。消費者都是在用眼睛購物的。他們在轉瞬間拿定主意。公司形象不能老舊、平庸又無趣。要知道,商場競技是不斷迭代升級的游戲。今天看來光鮮的店面五年內就會過時又乏味。產品也是如此。假如一款產品十年如一日就會陳腐,市場地位天天下滑。 理解人類學中的“動態分裂癥”理論。消費者沒有義務保持忠誠,他們會不停地在心里給商家排名。要利用具有獨特功效的優秀產品在消費者心目中站穩地位。 股東希望持續獲得可以預見的收益,但在越來越動蕩的市場,這種期望其實是不切實際的。偉大的公司會根據投資、風險和新情況創造長期價值。驚人的業績源于大飛躍,而不是日行硅步。 庫克先生,你有很多粉絲和支持者。今年秋天是時候讓鐵粉們驚喜一下了,新一代手機要成為爆款,亮眼的大殺器,橫掃全球的街機之王。(財富中文網) 作者Michael J. Silverstein是全球頂級商業戰略咨詢機構波士頓咨詢公司(BCG)位于芝加哥的高級合伙人,其合著的新近作品有《火箭:保證無限增長的八堂課》(2015年出版) 譯者:Pessy 審校:夏林 |
Tim Cook, chief executive of Apple, is up against his company’s own phenomenal history of success. The iPhone’s ubiquity and dominance have combined to deliver Apple a soaring share price and an astoundingly high percentage of the total mobile phone profit pool. Competitors are either losing boatloads of cash, or delivering marginal profits. Apple has a market cap of $555 billion—with roughly 90% of its value delivered in phones. But now a number of other promising players are out to eat Apple’slunch—and the U.S. government is after Cook to unlock the iPhone. The FBI wants encrypted data on the phone to help build its case against a murderous extremist in San Bernardino. Cook is resisting, arguing that encryption is the right thing to do to protect customer privacy. Certainly, a protracted fight with the federal government is a recurrent nightmare for any manager. Five years ago, Cook was appointed CEO of a company with a market cap of $360 billion and $108 billion in sales; its revenue has continued to grow, to $234 billion, and its recently volatile market cap has increased by nearly $200 billion. During Steve Jobs’ last five years, revenue had soared more than fivefold, to $108 billion, while market cap ballooned six-fold, from $61 billion. Cook’s tenure has seen a remarkable growth in iPhone share and global usage. Jobs would certainly have been proud of the trajectory. But Jobs’ most famous quote was: “Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn’t matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we’ve done something wonderful, that’s what matters to me” The new “wonderful” is what Apple needs most now. Other notable chief executives have faced similarly overwhelming challenges, and have fought to stay true to core company values and deliver ongoing value. Cook, of course, when he isn’t fighting the federal government, is trying to reinvigorate Apple’s growth. Last week, Italian luxury sweater king Brunello Cucinelli told me that shortly after his IPO, his newfound investors told him, “Give us 30% growth.” Cucinellicreated his company to deliver more than sales and profits. His orientation has been to treat his network of local suppliers fairly, pay his employees substantially above market, and ensure that the “human” side of relationships be cherished and reinforced. Cucinelli, who calls himself the company’s custodian and not just CEO, stared down the new investors. He told them 10% is a sustainable growth rate and that anything higher would hype the company. He has delivered on his promise. He believes he is setting the direction for his company for the next 50 years or more. When Howard Schultz returned to Starbucksafter temporarily “retiring” in 2000 as chief executive, he shut every store down for a day. During Schultz’s retirement, there was intense pressure to deliver 20% growth in sales and profits. In 2008, when he returned, Schultz decided that the company needed to stress speed, service, and quality product. In a memo to Starbucks employees, he lamented the “watering-down of the Starbucks experience” and “commoditization of our brand.” Insisting on a return to quality and experience control was a bold act at a time when same-store sales had slipped and consumer ranking had dropped. It was a clear statement about values and value, a push for reinvention, programmed expansion, and an emotional connection between employee and customer. Since Schultz’s return, Starbucks market cap has soared 600%, to $88 billion today. Big bets around expansion, global flag planting, investment ahead of everyone else in electronic loyalty cards, new day parts and the core business have delivered beyond anyone’s expectations. In what’s close to a bet-the-company move, Co-CEO John Mackey has a new plan to reinvent Whole Foodswith a limited product assortment, more limited customer service, and a lower-price second brand called “365 by Whole Foods Market.” Mackey is also launching a book to convince Americans to eat minimal processed food diet and instead focus on a diet rich in plant-based protein, whole grains, beans, fruits, and vegetables. This is another counterintuitive move: processed foods are traditionally the profit core for typical grocers. If 365 by Whole Foods Market is successful, it will be a move serve the 60 million middle income households in the country, not just the top 20 million. It will define a next wave of growth. Mackey is attempting to reinvent Whole Foods to take it to the next level. Sales have plateaued at $14 billion. In some markets, same-store sales are flat or declining slightly. To maintain a high P/E and upward trajectory, Whole Foods needs to deliver at least 5% real growth. An alternative to a second brand would have been a price rollback, which would have certainly destroyed value: Whole Foods’ above-average profits are derived from high-margin prepared food, very pricey health supplements, higher sales per square foot and net higher prices on fresh produce, fish, and meats. Whole Foods’ operating margins are three times that of average grocery chains, with up to three times the sales per square foot. All the leaders above take great satisfaction in leading their organizations and providing a moral compass for employees. They live by a belief that brands are not stable–they are either rising or declining, and that trajectory is a function of invention and innovation. Steve Jobs famously said, “If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do whatever I am about to do today?” He added . . . “Avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose . . . There is no reason not to follow your heart.” Samsung, LG, Huawei, HTC all want what Apple has. Relying on predictable, incremental improvements is no longer good enough. For companies like Apple facing the legacy of outsized success—as well as hungry competitors—the following are some tough rules for delivering sustainable growth: Understand your customers’ latent and unspoken needs, their usage and dissatisfactions. Get underneath to the whispers and emotional turmoil. Provide them a startling solution. Know you have their attention when you are unique and differentiated. Concentrate on understanding the top 2% of your consumers. They love you. They advocate for you. Know them like the back of your hand. Celebrate their loyalty and reward them. Provide them a reason to sing your praises and bring their friends into your camp. Deliver visually stunning merchandising. Consumers shop with their eyes. They make decisions in milliseconds. You cannot look old, ordinary or uninteresting. Know that the game is constantly being re-upped. A glorious store today becomes dated and trite inside five years. A product that is the same as it was a decade ago is stale and losing position every day. Understand schismogenesis. This is an anthropological term. A consumer has no obligation to remain loyal to you. She is constantly ranking and re-ranking. You need to earn your place in her heart with stunning products that offer unique benefits. Your shareholders want predictable and consistent earnings, but honestly that’s an unrealistic expectation in an increasingly volatile market. Great companies that deliver long-term value are built on investment, risk, and new truth. Stunning performance comes from making big leaps, not by taking baby steps or grinding it out. You have many fans and supporters, Mr. Cook. This fall, it’s time to bring that faithful core a next-generation phone that is a rocket, a must-have, a can’t-do-without. Michael J. Silverstein is a Chicago-based senior partner of The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and coauthor, most recently, of Rocket: Eight Lessons to Secure Infinite Growth (2015). |