過去十年中，比能源工業改變更大的重要經濟部門，恐怕只有國防工業了。如今的軍事技術與十年前相比發生了翻天覆地的變化，近來的軍事新聞滿是關于無人機、軌道炮、射線武器、隱形戰斗機、隱形驅逐艦和網絡戰爭的報道，盡管這些技術上的進步并不局限于國防領域。

以無人機為例。無人機代表的是軍事實力理論的根本變化——飛機，甚至一些地面車輛，都能通過遠程人為控制和預設計算機程序相結合的方式，在數千英里之外工作。這種技術正在徹底地改變石油和天然氣行業的方方面面，而這對美國公司而言喜憂參半。

從積極的方面來看，無人機正在迅速成為石油工業削減成本的最佳手段之一。石油公司不必再掏錢讓人從一個油井跑到另一個油井，或是沿著油管檢查哪里有問題，這些苦活現在都可以讓無人機完成。現場勘探，生產監控和安全排查也可以讓無人機代勞，這些無人機可以自動駕駛，許多美國供應商都能以合理的價格提供這種服務。

然而，無人機對美國的石油公司也有負面作用，可能會威脅到他們未來面對國外公司的競爭力。這種威脅來自中國。軍用無人機可能是最適合攜帶導彈襲擊地面目標的方式之一，它的成本要比傳統野戰裝備低很多。在美國，標準的軍用無人機售價約為500萬美元，而在中國，同樣的無人機售價可能只有100萬至200萬美元。與售價動輒高達幾千萬美元的傳統戰斗機相比，這只是一個零頭。在許多技術參數上，美國的無人機都要優于中國無人機，但兩國的產品對尋求廉價空軍力量的第三世界軍隊而言，都十分有用。

美國和美國公司的問題在于，該國是冷戰時期防衛條約的簽署國。這份名為《導彈及其技術控制制度》（MTCR）的條約旨在限制出售用于發射核彈頭的導彈，如今被政府廣泛用于阻止無人機技術的擴散，即便銷售對象是美國的盟友。到目前為止，只有兩個大國獲準購買美國無人機技術——英國和意大利。

這和石油有什么關系？

中國不是《導彈及其技術控制制度》的簽署國，因此在出售無人機上沒有這樣的限制。現在，中國的無人機已經進入了伊拉克和尼日利亞等國的軍火庫。中國不僅把無人機賣給這些國家，還用其作為談判的籌碼，確保在與這些國家進行石油貿易時獲得有利的條款。

以尼日利亞為例。據說中國對尼日利亞的石油很感興趣。中國在尼日利亞投資了數十億美元建設碳氫化合物的基礎設施，因為中國認為尼日利亞在國際石油市場上的地位將會日益提升。一些預測認為，到2050年，尼日利亞的人口將達到世界第三。假如真的如此，屆時將會有更多機會來開采尼日利亞的石油，并利用該國對石油的更大需求。中國希望在這種增長的兩個層面上都分一杯羹。

中國的石油需求位居全球第二，僅次于美國。因此，中國介入國外石油市場的情況在短期內不會改變。從美國政府的角度來看，這可能不會是個問題，不過，對于埃克森和雪佛龍這類依靠公平獲取海外石油開采機會的公司而言，中國的無人機恐怕會是中國公司擊敗美國公司的殺手锏。當前油價走低，頁巖油前途未卜，當美國股民們考慮可能更便宜的外國油源時，這樣的優勢是絕對需要關注的。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

Perhaps the only major sector of the economy that has changed more than energy in the last decade is the defense industry. Military technology today differs radically from what was available a decade ago, with military news stories these days filled with talk of drones, rail guns, directed energy weapons, stealth fighters, stealth destroyers, and cyber warfare. Not all of these technological advances are staying limited to the defense industry though.

Take drones for instance. Drones represent a paradigm shift for military power – now aircraft and even some ground vehicles can be operated from thousands of miles away through a combination of remote human operation and preprogrammed computer routines. This type of technology is now radically altering many aspects of the oil and gas industry in ways that are both good and bad for U.S. companies.

On the positive side, drones are quickly becoming one of the best cost cutting tools in the oil patch. Rather than paying people to travel from site to site or along pipelines looking for problems, oil companies can dispatch drones to do the dirty work. Site exploration, production monitoring, and security concerns can all be handled with drones, which in many cases are self-piloting and are available from a variety of U.S. suppliers at reasonable prices.

Yet there is also a darker side to drones for U.S. oil companies and one that could threaten their ability to compete in foreign markets in the future. That threat comes from China. Military drones are arguably most useful for carrying missiles to attack ground targets in a way that is very low cost compared to conventional field armaments. In the U.S., a typical military drone might retail for around $5M. In China, that same drone might cost $1-2M. Both sets of drones are a pittance compared to a traditional fighter aircraft, which almost universally cost tens of millions. U.S. drones are superior to Chinese drones on a variety of technical metrics, but both sets of drones are functionally very useful for third world militaries that are looking for cheap airpower.

The problem for the U.S. and American firms is that the country is a signatory to a defense treaty from the Cold War Era that was intended to curtail the sale of missiles to launch nuclear warheads. This treaty, called the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), is now commonly applied by the government to stop the sale of drone technology even to U.S. allies. So far, only two major nations have been approved to buy U.S. drone tech – the UK and Italy.

How does all of this relate to oil?

The Chinese are not signatories to MTCR and thus face no such restriction on the sale of their drones. As a result, Chinese drones are turning up in the arsenals of countries like Iraq and Nigeria. But the Chinese are not just selling drones to these countries, they are also using these drone sales as a bargaining chip to secure advantageous terms related to oil in these countries.

Take Nigeria for instance. China is reportedly very interested in Nigeria’s oil. China has invested billions of dollars in hydrocarbon infrastructure in Nigeria because China sees Nigeria as having a rising degree of importance in the world and the oil markets. By 2050, some projections suggest Nigeria will have the third largest population in the world. As that development occurs, there will be more opportunities to exploit Nigerian oil and greater demand by the country for oil. The Chinese want a piece of both sides in that growth.

The Chinese demand for oil makes it second in the world behind the U.S. in consumption, and as a result Chinese involvement in foreign oil markets is not going to change anytime soon. From the American government’s perspective, this may not be a problem, but for companies like Exxon and Chevron that rely on fair access to overseas oil production opportunities, China’s drones may be the ace in the hole that gives the nod to Chinese firms over U.S. companies. And with the future of shale oil in question given current low oil prices, that advantage is definitely something that U.S. shareholders should care about when considering potentially cheaper foreign oil sources.