Netflix的投資者也許會覺得自己的心情就像坐了過山車，跟觀看該公司新劇《杰西卡?瓊斯》的感覺差不多。

一年來，Netflix的股價上漲了65%；但2015年12月初至今，這只股票回落的幅度超過25%。這還不是全部。今年2月份觸底后，Netflix一度反彈17%；3月7日卻又幾乎下跌6%，股價已略低于96美元。到當天中午時分，Netflix已成為標普500指數中表現最差的個股。

Netflix劇烈震蕩的理由很充分，那就是它很難預測。該公司在股市中沒有真正的競爭對手，因此很難進行比較，它所在的行業也變化無常。分析師目前對它的估值介于每股85美元到155美元之間。一位分析師甚至相信，到2019年Netflix的價值可能達到每股200美元。難怪投資者會把它作為投機目標。

上周，Netflix的投資者也迎來了一些好消息，或者說看上去是利好的消息。來自股票研究機構MoffettNathanson的行業專家邁克爾?內桑森稱，Netflix令2015年美國電視收視量出現了約一半的跌幅。據娛樂網站Variety.com報道，內桑森在報告中預測，Netflix的流媒體收視量占美國電視收視量的比例將不斷上升，到2020年會達到14%左右。

問題在于，雖然Netflix爭取到了電視觀眾，但不看Netflix的也大有人在。內桑森的報告稱，收視總量減少了3%。Variety.com的報道顯示，內桑森在報告中寫道：“目前Netflix是電視行業的肉中刺，但未必會成為致命因素。”

Netflix在美國市場已經很火。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場分析師馬克?馬哈尼的調查顯示，53%的受訪者目前都在用Netflix，超過了YouTube（46%）和亞馬遜（27%）。在線投資銀行FBR分析師巴頓?克羅基特在報告中指出：“如果美國市場接近飽和，用戶增速就有可能放緩。另一風險是其他流媒體視頻點播服務商帶來的競爭，包括亞馬遜Prime和Hulu，后者也采用訂閱模式對外提供服務。”

樂觀者的依據是Netflix在美國以外的成長潛力，但這個因素已經體現在了估值之中。舉例來說，克羅基特估算，該公司美國流媒體業務的價值約為每股25美元，比當前股價的四分之一略高一些。剩下約72美元的價值來自國際業務，還有很小一部分來自DVD訂閱和原創業務。

但Netflix的海外發展之路可能困難重重。以日本為例，馬哈尼的調查表明，只有1%的日本受訪者使用Netflix的服務，而YouTube、Nico Nico和GYAO!三家視頻網站所占的比例分別為39%、18%和13%。實際上，就連谷歌的流媒體業務Google Play在日本的排名都高于Netflix。

這聽起來也許像個機會，但高達57%的日本受訪者都表示，他們“根本不可能”把錢花在流媒體內容上，這個比例幾乎是美國的三倍。同時，只有6%的日本用戶表示不太可能停止使用Netflix的服務，在美國，這個數字則接近75%。

如果股價已經體現出了這些風險，所有這些對投資者來說也許還好。但情況顯然不是這樣。就算把3月7日的跌幅考慮在內，Netflix的2017年預測市盈率仍接近370倍。要讓估值顯得合理，該公司的利潤就得翻兩番。如果凈利潤未能大幅上升，投資者或許就會把Netflix拋諸腦后。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

Netflix investors may feel like they are on an emotional rollercoaster similar to watching the streaming cable service’s series Jessica Jones.

The stock is up 65% in the past year. But it’s off more than a quarter since early December. Hold on. It’s up 17% since its February lows, and today, shares are down almost 6% to just under $96, making it, as of mid-day, the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Shares of Netflixare volatile for good reason: The company is hard to predict. It doesn’t have a true publicly traded competitor (so comparisons are difficult), and it’s in a business that is rapidly changing. Analysts estimate the stock is currently worth anywhere from $85 a share to $155. One analyst even believes it could reach $200 a share by 2019. Small wonder investors are along for the ride.

Last week Netflix investors got some good news, or so it seemed. Industry specialist Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson said that Netflix accounted for about half the overall drop in TV viewing in the U.S. in 2015. In the report, Nathanson predicted Netflix’s total streaming hours as a percentage of TV viewing will continue to rise to about 14% by 2020,according to a story in Variety.

The trouble is that while Netflix cut into American TV viewing, it wasn’t by a whole lot. Overall, viewing dropped 3%, the report says. “Currently, Netflix is a source of industry pain, but not necessarily a cause of industry death,” he wrote in the note, according to Variety.

Netflix has already flooded the U.S. market. According to a survey conducted by RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney, 53% of respondents now use Netflix, more than YouTube (46%) and Amazon (27%). “Slowing subscriber growth is possible if the U.S. market nears saturation,” said FBR analyst Barton Crockett in a note. “Another risk is competition from other streaming VOD providers, including Amazon Prime and Hulu, which also offer services with subscription-based models.”

Bulls point to Netflix’s growth potential outside of the U.S., but this opportunity is reflected in the stock’s valuation. For example, Crockett says the U.S. streaming service is worth about $25 a share, or a little more than a quarter of the company’s current stock prices. The remaining value, or roughly $72 a share, comes from the international business (another small bit comes from DVD subscriptions and Netflix’s original business).

But that growth abroad is fraught with potential pitfalls. In Japan, for example, only 1% of the respondents of Mahaney’s survey use the company’s services, compared to 39% for YouTube, 18% for Nico Nico, 13% for GYAO!. In fact, even Google Play, the search engine’s also-run streaming service, ranked higher than Netflix in Japan.

That might sound like an opportunity, but a whopping 57% of the respondents said they were “not at all likely” to pay for streaming content, almost three times as many as in the U.S. At the same time, just 6% said they were not likely to cancel, compared to nearly three-quarters of Netflix’s U.S. users.

All of this might be OK for investors if these risks were price into the company’s shares. But it doesn’t appear to be. Even after today’s drop the stock trades at a nearly 370 times next year’s earnings. Earnings are expected to quadruple next year, so that valuation may make sense. But if Netflix’s bottom line doesn’t soar, investors may tune the company out.