談到全球化的前景，企業經理人通常都是一片樂觀，也確實合情合理。全球化讓世界各地的聯系越來越密切，每年全球范圍內交易的商品與服務超過30萬億美元，企業投資規模突破1萬億美元。信息技術和交通的進步為全球化推波助瀾，將發達國家與發展中國家聯系在一起，已經幫助約4億人脫貧。

世界各國通過全球貿易與投資密切關聯，潮流滾滾向前。相應地，企業經理往往將全球化視為不可避免的強大力量而敬畏不已——說得好像是一項科技突破，如果跟本公司扯不上就說全球化會改變世界未來潮流。他們常常自認為是全球化的佼佼者，就像發掘和征服千里之外的處女地任務的探險者。

對于全球化能給所在公司帶來多少盈利，企業經理人也非常樂觀。他們渴望兩位數的銷售增長潛力。只要將業務轉移海外就有望將降低至少一半成本的機會也實在吸引人。于是，他們率領公司踏入了全球市場，尋找無盡的財富。

然而，機會跟現實往往不是一回事。雖然全球化會帶來希望，但也艱險重重。管理者常常發現不了風險，有時則會忽視。遺憾的是，在這個奉行全球戰略的高風險世界，企業很難將潛在收益轉化為實際盈利。大部分公司沒能調整好自身定位，無法充分利用全球化的優勢，不少公司還在全球化探索之路上遭遇慘敗。

中國就是個全球化探索時要警惕的地方。這個國家擁有13億以上的人口，市場潛力也是億萬級別規模，開拓中國市場足以令任何一位經理人兩眼放光。中國的潛力看似是無窮無盡的。

可要是進一步調查就會發現，西方企業在中國遇到的挑戰巨大。

第一道障礙來自經濟。自1979年向全球貿易和投資開放國內市場以來，中國的經濟取得長足進步，但中國國內經濟體制和基礎設施的發展仍然落后于西方。

第二道障礙在文化方面。例如中國消費者和西方消費者的偏好很不一樣，西方企業想取悅中國消費者就有點困難。

第三道障礙源于政治層面。中國的地方和全國政治網絡錯綜復雜，西方企業想處理好各方關系并不容易。

鑒于所有這些因素，通用電氣的首席執行官杰夫?伊梅爾特得出這一結論：“中國市場是很大，但很難下手。”

沃爾瑪就在征戰中國的過程中收獲了慘痛的教訓。自從1996年在深圳開設首家超市以來，沃爾瑪一路困難重重，體現出沃爾瑪壓根不了解中國的政治、經濟和文化環境。

首先，沃爾瑪就不了解中國消費者和中國文化。和美國不同，中國每個城市的消費者的需求差別很大。所以，沃爾瑪在25個省117個城市很難找到適合當地的產品組合。因此，沃爾瑪只能在全中國銷售統一的核心產品組合，結果壓力很大。

而且，沃爾瑪沒能處理好同全國和地方政界的關系，卷入了各種糾紛。中國政府還曾因違反地方和全國法規對沃爾瑪處以罰款，甚至迫使其因所謂的產品違規而暫時關閉店面。雖然認為這些指控毫無理由，沃爾瑪也被迫認罰。

沃爾瑪面臨最大挑戰還是經濟方面。由于經濟基礎設施并不完善又問題多多，沃爾瑪到了中國最大的一項優勢沒法發揮出來：技術先進而且效率極高的供應鏈。沃爾瑪沒能預計到，原本的商業模式在中國會面臨諸多問題。其磕磕碰碰的中國征途凸顯出，將高效的供應鏈，也就是物流的競爭優勢應用于一個技術不成熟，基礎設施又不完善的國家有多么困難。

過去好些年，中國的基礎設施投資在全球名列前茅，但除了上海、北京、天津、廣州、深圳等大城市，其他地區的基礎設施依然有很多問題。中國地域廣闊，航空、陸地和鐵路基礎設施均未達到發達國家標準，在各地區之間高效運輸商品就成為一大挑戰。有鑒于此，沃爾瑪在中國市場的業務難以盈利，坐擁規模巨大盈利前景很好的市場卻一直表現不佳，并不令人意外。

沃爾瑪在中國遇挫的教訓就是，企業經理人在考慮全球化時不是一般的樂觀，多數時候是樂觀得過分了，他們經常高估全球化的收益，又小看要付出的代價。在評估全球化的機遇時，管理者經常只看到機遇的一面，把風險拋在腦后。然而，風險與機遇如影隨形，管理者卻沒能準確考慮到進軍全球市場面臨的風險。

企業經理人常常為了一舉贏得全球市場做出危險的假設。他們自以為有了在本國成功盈利的商業模式，只要全盤復制到其他國家就能收獲同樣的盈利水平。這些經理人根本沒考慮國家之間的明顯差異，以及差異導致的經營風險可能對業務產生怎樣的負面影響。不幸的是，他們最終在艱難的全球化中了解到，即使是最完美的全球化方案，也無法克服國家差異帶來的風險。沃爾瑪這樣的巨頭也不例外。

為了提高全球業務水平，更好地制定全球擴張的決策，企業經理人需要更深入了解想要開展業務的國家，把握當地的經濟、政治和文化環境。他們必須理解國家之間的經濟、政治和文化差異，以及各種差異會增加多少風險（和成本），然后結合風險因素重新考慮現有的戰略和財務決策模式。（財富中文網）

本文作者羅伯特?所羅門在紐約大學斯特恩商學院任國際管理全職教授，從事全球化和全球戰略研究將近20年。本文節選自他的作品《全球視野：企業如何克服全球化陷阱》（Global Vision: How Companies Can Overcome the Pitfalls of Globalization）。該書由出版商Palgrave Macmillan出版，獲得授權轉載。

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Managers tend to speak optimistically about the prospects of globalization, and for good reason. Globalization has fostered an increasingly interconnected world, with more than $30 trillion in goods and services traded and more than $1 trillion in corporate investment each year. Advances in information technology and transportation have helped facilitate globalization—connecting developed and developing worlds, lifting some 400 million people out of poverty along the way.

Nations are now inextricably linked through global trade and investment. There is no turning back. Accordingly, managers often view globalization as a powerful and inevitable force, and they tend to treat it with reverence—speaking of it as if it were a breakthrough technology, the wave of the future that will change the world, if not their companies’ fortunes. And they tend to think of themselves as the champions of globalization, akin to explorers embarking on a mission to discover and conquer far-off, unexplored lands.

Managers express their optimism for globalization in terms of the profitability it can generate for their companies. They salivate at the potential for double-digit sales growth. They are seduced by opportunities that promise to slash costs by half or more, simply by shifting operations overseas. And they lead their companies on journeys to global markets in search of untapped and untold riches.

However, opportunity and reality do not always coincide. Although globalization certainly holds promise, it is also rife with hazards. It presents risks that managers fail to appreciate and that they often overlook. Sadly, in the high-stakes world of global strategy, companies regularly fail to convert potential into profits. Most companies are poorly positioned to capitalize on globalization’s potential, and many are spectacularly unsuccessful in their attempts to globalize.

China provides the setting for a classic cautionary tale about globalization. Given a population of more than 1.3 billionpeople and the market potential that goes hand in hand with a consumer base of that size, the prospect of expanding to China is enough to make any manager’s eyes light up. The potential is seemingly limitless.

But on further inspection, it becomes clear that China poses tremendous challenges for Western companies. The first obstacle is economic. Though China has made tremendous strides and enjoyed incredible growth since opening its markets to global trade and investment in 1979, the development of its economic institutions and its infrastructure has lagged behind that in the West. The second obstacle is cultural. Chinese consumers, for example, tend to be very different from those in the West, which makes it difficult for Western companies to appeal to local consumer tastes. The third obstacle is political. Western companies struggle to skillfully navigate China’s complex web of local and national political organizations. All of these factors led G.E.’s CEO Jeff Immelt to conclude: “China is big, but it is hard.”

Walmart has learned these lessons the hard way. Walmart’s ongoing troubles in China, since opening its first superstore in Shenzhen in 1996, reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political, economic, and cultural environments.

The American retailer has struggled to understand Chinese consumers and Chinese culture. Chinese consumers, unlike those in the U.S., differ widely from city to city in their needs. Walmart therefore struggles to find the right product mix to offer in the 117 cities and 25 provinces in which it operates. This makes it challenging to sell a core set of products nationwide.

Walmart has also suffered from troubled relationships with politicians—both local and national. The company has had its fair share of run-ins with the law. On one occasion the Chinese government fined Walmart for violating local and national laws and even forced it to close stores temporarily for purported product violations. Walmart paid the fines, even though the company believed the claims to be unfounded.

Yet the company’s greatest challenge remains an economic infrastructure that is problematic and underdeveloped. China simply cannot accommodate one of Walmart’s greatest strengths: an ultra-efficient and technologically advanced supply chain. The company did not anticipate that scaling up its business model there would present so many problems. Walmart’s struggles highlight the difficulties inherent in transferring a competitive advantage rooted in supply-chain efficiency—that is, logistics—to a country lacking a sophisticated technological and physical infrastructure.

Although China has led the globe in infrastructure investment over the past several years, outside of its largest cities (e.g., Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen), its infrastructure remains more than problematic. The efficient transport of goods from one region to another is a challenge because of China’s sheer physical size, and because its air, ground, and rail infrastructure does not meet developed country standards. Not surprisingly, Walmart’s China business has struggled to generate profits, and it has consistently underperformed in this huge and potentially lucrative market.

The lesson in all of this is that, when it comes to globalization, managers are not just optimists; all too often, they are unbridled optimists. They habitually overestimate the benefits of globalization and underestimate its costs. In evaluating globalization opportunities, managers often forget the other side of the opportunity equation: risk. Risk goes hand in hand with opportunity, and managers fail to accurately account for the risks they face in global markets.

Managers often make dangerous assumptions about what it takes to succeed in global markets. They tend to assume that their current business model, one they successfully and profitably exploit in their home country, will translate simply and effectively to other countries, yielding similar levels of profitability. These same managers fail to account for real and salient differences between nations, and fail to consider how those differences generate operational risks that may negatively impact their business. Unfortunately, they end up learning the hard way that the risk borne out of cross-country differences can overwhelm even the best-laid globalization plans. And Walmart is no exception.

To improve the practice of global business and to make better global expansion decisions, managers need a more sophisticated understanding of the economic, political, and cultural environments in the countries in which they intend to operate. They must appreciate how nations differ economically, politically, and culturally, and how those differences manifest as increasing risks (and costs). They then need to incorporate those risks into their existing strategy and financial decision models.

Robert Salomon is a professor of International Management and Faculty Scholar at NYU’s Stern School of Business and has researched globalization and global strategy for nearly 20 years. This article is excerpted from his book, Global Vision: How Companies Can Overcome the Pitfalls of Globalization. Published by Palgrave Macmillan; reproduced by permission.