許多投資者都想知道中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行究竟會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生多大影響，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司（United Technologies）近期發(fā)布的收益報(bào)告，對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題有非常不錯(cuò)的參考價(jià)值。同時(shí)它也表明，世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)正呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健發(fā)展，能在相當(dāng)程度上抵消全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體增速放緩所造成的不利影響。

聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司是一家歷史悠久的制造企業(yè)，主要生產(chǎn)用于樓宇和飛機(jī)的一些重要設(shè)備，比如飛機(jī)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)、制動(dòng)器、空調(diào)和電梯等等。它旗下最盈利的部門就是我們熟知的奧的斯電梯（Otis Elevator），其運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率高達(dá)20%左右。十多年來(lái)，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)一直是奧的斯最重要的增長(zhǎng)引擎。由于中國(guó)舉世矚目的城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程，奧的斯理所當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)的飛速增長(zhǎng)還會(huì)持續(xù)下去。該公司所有新生產(chǎn)出來(lái)的電梯有近70%都賣到了從上海到青海的中國(guó)各大省市。

2006到2013年間，奧的斯在中國(guó)的營(yíng)收入平均每年增長(zhǎng)20%左右。現(xiàn)在這種增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭出現(xiàn)了逆轉(zhuǎn)。在2015年的大部分時(shí)間里，奧的斯的營(yíng)收下跌程度并不大，這是因?yàn)?015年奧的斯還有很多訂單尚未交貨。該公司CFO阿希爾?約里對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“如果我們今天收到一個(gè)訂單，需要9到18個(gè)月的時(shí)間才能將電梯安裝好。2015年銷量的下滑并沒(méi)有訂單下滑得厲害，因?yàn)槲覀內(nèi)ツ赀€有相當(dāng)一部分積壓的訂單需要交貨。”

盡管如此，奧的斯去年在華營(yíng)收還是下滑了7%，算上人民幣相對(duì)美元的貶值，這個(gè)數(shù)字還會(huì)進(jìn)一步放大。而訂單數(shù)量則下滑得更嚴(yán)重，2015年的訂單數(shù)要比2014年低了13%。根據(jù)約里的預(yù)測(cè)，在計(jì)算過(guò)匯率影響后，今年奧的斯在中國(guó)的新電梯銷售收入將下跌10%左右。

不過(guò)從總體上看，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司的收益還不算很糟糕。2015年，該公司的調(diào)整后收益為每股6.30美元，在排除強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元因素的影響后，僅比上年下跌2%。該公司去年第四季度的收益還要略好于分析師之前的預(yù)期。

首先，新設(shè)備的銷售額約占了奧的斯在華營(yíng)收入的90%左右，另外10%則主要來(lái)自已安裝電梯的維修保養(yǎng)服務(wù)。今年奧的斯的這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張了20%之多，這主要是由于過(guò)去幾年中，建筑物所有人紛紛簽訂了讓奧的斯非常有利可圖的電梯維保合同。約里表示，維保服務(wù)的強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)將在一定程度上抵消新電梯銷量的劇烈下滑，將營(yíng)收入的縮水額控制在7%左右（以固定匯率計(jì)算）。

近來(lái)美國(guó)建筑市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇也在一定程度上抵消了中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)的疲軟。自金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，美國(guó)建筑業(yè)元?dú)獯髠虡I(yè)用房和住宅樓的建設(shè)長(zhǎng)時(shí)間沒(méi)有回暖。2015年，隨著美國(guó)多地的建筑機(jī)械重新開工，北美地區(qū)的電梯訂單飆升了50%，而且今年這種增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)還在持續(xù)。另外，除了中國(guó)，亞洲其他國(guó)家的建筑業(yè)也呈現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)，尤其是新加坡。總體上看，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司預(yù)計(jì)其營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)將下滑2億美元，下滑幅度僅為8%左右，而且前提還是人民幣相對(duì)美元繼續(xù)貶值。

即便如此，奧的斯今年的運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)也有望超過(guò)18%。而且中國(guó)電梯市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期展望依然是樂(lè)觀的，原因有二：

第一，中國(guó)的城鎮(zhèn)化大趨勢(shì)沒(méi)有變，平均每年都有1500萬(wàn)到2000萬(wàn)名農(nóng)村居民移居到城市；

第二，維保收入還將繼續(xù)增加，而且速度還會(huì)加快。

約里表示：“這個(gè)模式的美妙之處，就在于如果你安裝了設(shè)備，按照法律規(guī)定，你還得為這些電梯提供服務(wù)。”而在中國(guó)，由于相應(yīng)法規(guī)剛剛出臺(tái)不久，因此建筑物的所有人正在蜂擁地簽訂新的服務(wù)合同，而這種趨勢(shì)應(yīng)該會(huì)使奧的斯的維保收入顯著增加。

總體來(lái)看，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司的管理層認(rèn)為，2016年，公司的增長(zhǎng)率應(yīng)該是在一位數(shù)的低段至中段，并表示該公司的幾項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)將在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。

比如，它旗下的普惠（Pratt & Whitney）發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)部門最新研制的極為節(jié)能的Geared Turbofan發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)已經(jīng)獲得了7000個(gè)訂單，該發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)目前已經(jīng)安裝在空客A320neo客機(jī)上，它很快也將出現(xiàn)在其它幾款機(jī)型上。

另外，聯(lián)合技術(shù)旗下的航空航天系統(tǒng)（Aerospace Systems）部門也獲得了來(lái)自空客A320neo和波音787的大單。該公司如今為一架飛機(jī)提供的零部件包括制動(dòng)器、發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)艙、動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)等等，提供的內(nèi)容是15年前的五倍。

2014年底，格雷格?海耶斯取代了路易斯?切尼弗特，成為聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司的新任CEO。此后他明智地賣掉了公司的直升機(jī)部門——西科斯基飛機(jī)公司（Sikorsky）。據(jù)說(shuō)這個(gè)動(dòng)議起初受到了切尼弗特的反對(duì)，而這也可能正是導(dǎo)致切尼弗特離職的原因。通過(guò)這筆交易，海耶斯從買家洛克希德馬丁公司手中拿到了90億美元的高價(jià)。

2016年1月26日，洛克希德馬丁公司宣布，西科斯基公司的商用直升機(jī)銷量顯著下跌。許多石油公司原本都使用直升機(jī)向海上鉆井平臺(tái)運(yùn)送工人，但現(xiàn)在這些石油公司都停止購(gòu)買新的直升機(jī)了。

與此同時(shí)，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司的股票似乎已經(jīng)做好了飆升的準(zhǔn)備。自從2015年年初以來(lái)，該公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌了25%，目前的價(jià)格約在85美元左右。其市盈率也由17左右跌至13.4，股息生息率則從2.2%提高到3%。

多年以來(lái)，聯(lián)合技術(shù)公司在向股東返利方面，做得一向好于它的康涅狄格州的“老鄉(xiāng)”——通用電氣公司（GE）。通用電氣雖然規(guī)模更大，但聯(lián)合技術(shù)卻做得更好。它在面臨中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力時(shí)表現(xiàn)出的韌性，更加證明了這個(gè)工業(yè)巨人所具有的增長(zhǎng)潛力。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：樸成奎

For investors parsing the impact of China’s slowdown on the U.S. economy, United Technologies’ earnings last week were a pretty good primer on the size of the drag. It also showed how surprisingly sturdy growth in many other parts of the world economy can buffer weakness in the world’s second largest economy.

United Technologies is an old-line maker of essentials that fill and power buildings and airplanes, everything from aircraft engines and brakes to air conditioning systems and elevators. Its most profitable division is Otis Elevator, with rich operating margins in the 20% range. For more than a decade, China has been a great growth engine for Otis, and given China’s phenomenal urbanization story makes China, United Technologies expected that to continue. Between nearly 70% of all newly-manufactured elevators are sold in cities from Shanghai to Qinghai.

From roughly 2006 to 2013, Otis’ revenues from China surged around 20% a year. But now, the long upward trend has gone into reverse. The decline was muted during much of 2015 because Otis started the year with a backlog. “We pick up an order today, and it takes nine to eighteen months to install the elevator,” CFO Akhil Johri told Fortune. “Last year, sales didn’t decline as much as orders, because we were still working off a decent backlog.”

Still, Otis’ revenues from China fell 7%, adjusting for the decline in the yuan versus the dollar that amplified that figure. Orders are dropping more sharply—they were down 13% for 2015 versus 2014. Johri predicts that revenues from new elevators will decline around 10% this year in China, after the effect of exchange rates.

And yet, in all, United Technologies earnings weren’t all that bad. For 2015, the company’s adjusted earnings were $6.30 a share, down just 2% from the year before, after adjusting for a stronger dollar. The company’s fourth quarter earnings were slightly better than analysts had expected.

First of all, new equipment sales account for 90% of Otis’ revenues from China; the other 10% is maintenance on servicing the installed lifts, and that business is expanding as much as 20% this year as the building owners sign lucrative maintenance contracts on the equipment installed over the past few years. The strong growth in servicing, according to Johri, will partially offset the sharp fall in sales of new elevators, reducing the revenue shrinkage to around 7%, in constant currency.

And weakness in China was offset by a surge of building activity in the U.S. In the U.S., the financial crisis sapped construction of residential and office towers. But last year, orders in North America jumped 50% as the building cranes returned, and the surge continues. High-rise construction is also strong in Asian markets outside China, notably Singapore. All told, United Technologies forecasts a drop in operating profits of as much as $200 million, about 8%, and that’s only if the yuan continues falling against the dollar.

Even so, Otis should post operating margins exceeding 18%. And the long-term outlook for elevators in China is still positive, for two reasons. First, the urbanization story remains intact, as 15 to 20 million Chinese move from farms to cities each year. Second, the revenues from maintenance should keep waxing, at an accelerating pace. “The beauty of the model is that you install the equipment and you’re required by legislation to service those elevators,” says Johri. In China, that legislation is relatively new, so building owners are rushing to sign new service contracts, a trend that should swell Otis’ maintenance revenues.

All told, United Technologies’ management is projecting low-to-mid-single digit growth for 2016, and says the company is booking business that should restore growth in the years to come. Its Pratt & Whitney engines division has won 7,000 orders for its new, super-energy efficient Geared Turbofan engine, that’s now aloft on the Airbus A320neo, and will also power several other aircraft. Its Aerospace Systems unit has won big contracts for the neo and Boeing 787, and now supplies five-times the content per plane—brakes, nacelles, power systems, and the like—as it did fifteen years ago.

Greg Hayes, who replaced Louis Chenevert as CEO of United Technologies in late 2014, made a good move in selling the Sikorsky helicopter unit—a gambit reportedly opposed by Chenevert, and that may have led to his departure. Hayes garnered a premium price of $9 billion for Sikorsky from its acquirer, Lockheed Martin. On January 26, Lockheed announced that Sikorsky’s commercial helicopter sales had fallen sharply. Oil companies that use the choppers to transport workers to offshore platforms have stopped growing their fleets.

At the same time, United Technologies stock looks like its ready to fly. It’s fallen 25% since the start of 2015 to around $85. That decline has lowered its price-to-earnings ratio from almost 17 to 13.4, and lifted its dividend yield from 2.2% to 3%. For years, United Technologies has been beating its Connecticut (soon to be Massachusetts) neighbor GE in returns to shareholders. GE is bigger, but United Technologies is better. Its resilience in the face of the downturn in China provides more proof this industrial stalwart is light on its feet.