作為中國乃至全世界最大的住宅開發(fā)商，萬科度過了精彩的一年。上季度收入增長31%，達(dá)到273億元人民幣（43億美元），利潤上升22%。創(chuàng)始人兼董事長王石對《財富》雜志表示：“萬科做的很好。一點兒也沒有受到經(jīng)濟(jì)困難的影響。”

等等，他說什么？

聽上去，王石似乎對風(fēng)險毫不在意，但他的樂觀態(tài)度也不是沒有根據(jù)。眼下，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)呈兩極態(tài)勢。部分重工業(yè)及其所在省份的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在下行，它們在債務(wù)重壓下苦苦掙扎，它們生產(chǎn)的鋼材、煤炭、水泥和出口商品也遇上了需求萎縮。另一方面，消費(fèi)品零售、消費(fèi)服務(wù)以及對重工業(yè)依賴較小的沿海省份，其經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在以接近兩位數(shù)的速度增長。

如果你和中國消費(fèi)者、或者像王石那樣通過服務(wù)消費(fèi)者來賺錢的企業(yè)高管談一談，你就會發(fā)現(xiàn)，那些關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)大滑坡的報道甚至像是不存在一樣。

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境毫不意外。多年來，專家們一直在預(yù)言中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將向消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)移，從而實現(xiàn)再平衡，并且一直對此表示歡迎。輿論上也一直在為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長較慢的“新常態(tài)”做鋪墊。

然而，A股市場走勢和人民幣不斷貶值依然表明，投資者擔(dān)心低迷的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)會引發(fā)全球性衰退。評判者還指出，在股市和匯率兩方面，情況正變得更糟。股市“熔斷”機(jī)制的唯一作用就是讓主要指數(shù)波動得更加劇烈；人民幣貶值看起來也像毫無組織的恐慌行為。

無論出于什么樣的動機(jī)，保留就業(yè)機(jī)會也好，防止不穩(wěn)定的社會局勢也好，政府對工業(yè)的扶持掣肘了中國前進(jìn)的腳步。北京大學(xué)教授邁克爾·佩蒂斯曾說：“最終，必須要選擇是讓債務(wù)增長，還是讓失業(yè)率上升，或者讓財富更多地從國家層面轉(zhuǎn)移到個人手中。”如果選擇第三項，也就是不再側(cè)重于國企，情況就會全面好轉(zhuǎn)；否則，債務(wù)和增長停滯就可能讓中國失去形勢較好的那一極。

實際上，來自中國的消息不好，但也許沒有那么糟糕。可以說，投資者對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)減速的反應(yīng)一直都比經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩本身更為極端。多個市場都刷新了歷史最低記錄，其中包括：

43%：2015年6月見頂以來上證指數(shù)的下跌幅度。

每桶20美元：摩根士丹利分析師1月份預(yù)測的油價，依據(jù)包括中國市場需求減弱以及人民幣貶值等因素。這樣的低點意味著從2014年6月起油價下跌了81%。

550點：法國興業(yè)銀行全球策略分析師艾伯特·愛德華茲1月13日預(yù)測的標(biāo)普500指數(shù)低點。當(dāng)時該指數(shù)在1900點上下。

還有更夸張的，蘇格蘭皇家銀行研究分析師安德魯·羅伯茨甚至表示，“除了高質(zhì)量債券，把其他的都拋掉吧……經(jīng)濟(jì)增長這根接力棒已經(jīng)無人可傳。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

The biggest residential real estate developer in China, and for that matter the world, is having a banner year. Revenue rose 31% in the latest quarter, to 27.3 billion yuan ($4.3 billion), and profit by 22%. “Vanke is doing well,” founder and chairman Wang Shi tells Fortune. “It’s not affected at all by the difficult economy.”

Wait, what?

Wang may sound blasé, but his optimism isn’t unwarranted. China’s economy is a two-headed dragon right now. Some heavy industries and their home provinces are in recession, struggling under the weight of debt and facing less demand for their stuff—steel, coal, concrete, exports. But retail sales, consumer services, and the coastal-province economies that rely less on big industry are still growing at close to double-digit rates.

Talk to a Chinese consumer—or to executives like Wang who make money serving that consumer—and it’s as though those headlines about the nation’s collapse don’t even exist.

There’s nothing unexpected about this economic rough patch. Experts have been predicting and welcoming China’s “rebalancing” toward consumers for years. And government propaganda has been preparing citizens for a “new normal” of accompanying lower economic growth.

But China’s stock markets and a declining Chinese currency are still inciting fear among investors that the country’s sluggishness could trigger a global recession. And on both of those fronts, critics say, China is making matters worse. Its stock market “circuit breakers” only increased the volatility of its major indexes; its currency devaluations looked like uncoordinated panic moves.

Whatever its motives—saving jobs, preventing social unrest—the government’s propping up of the industrial sector prevents the country from moving on. “Beijing must ultimately choose between higher debt, higher unemployment, or higher transfers of wealth from the state sector to the household sector,” Peking University professor Michael Pettis has said. The world will be better off if China chooses option three, ending its favoritism toward state-owned business; otherwise, debt and stagnation could cut off the dragon’s healthier head.

The Chinese news is bad—but maybe not this bad.Investors’ reactions to China’s slowdown have arguably been more extreme than the slowdown itself. Some highlights from among the markets’ new lows:

43%: Decline of the Shanghai Composite Index since its June 2015 peak.

$20 a barrel: The price predicted for oil in January by Morgan Stanley MS 3.35% analysts, citing the combination of weakening Chinese demand and the devaluation of the yuan, among other factors. A $20 low would represent an 81% drop since June 2014.

550: Low for the S&P 500 predicted by Société Générale global strategist Albert Edwards on Jan. 13. At the time, the S&P 500 traded at about 1,900.

“Sell everything except high-quality bonds?…?There is no one to take up the baton of growth.”—Andrew Roberts, research analyst, RBS