近一年來，視頻網站Netflix的股價一路飆升。原因顯而易見。這家流媒體視頻公司接連推出《杰茜卡·瓊斯》和《毒梟》等多部熱門美劇，正在顛覆傳統電視產業——許多所謂的“掐線族”已經完全放棄了有線電視。

這是個好消息，但古語有云，“禍兮福之所倚，福兮禍之所伏”。而投資者最擔心的，正是這些隱隱浮現的壞消息。

投資者為何要緊張？

Netflix的股價一度在短短幾個小時下挫5%以上。市場擔憂有二：第一，隨著Netflix的原創節目越來越多，其成本也將大幅攀升；第二，由于Netflix正在與各大新聞網絡爭奪電視節目轉播權等原因，其營收也將面臨較大壓力。

這些隱憂在一定程度上是Netflix公司CEO泰德·薩蘭多斯在瑞銀集團紐約媒體見面會上發表的一番言論所引發的。

首先，薩蘭多斯證實了此前關于Netflix計劃增加原創劇集數量的報道。目前看來，這家公司將推出大約比2015年計劃的數量超出一倍的原創節目。Netflix2015年原定制作的劇集只有16部，包括時下大熱的《女子監獄》和《紙牌屋》。不過薩蘭多斯表示，公司計劃到2016年年底制作超過30部原創劇集。

這還沒完。據各大媒體對這次會議的報道，薩蘭多斯還表示，Netflix還打算制作10部電影、30部兒童劇、12部紀錄片和10檔喜劇節目。換句話說，Neflix正在成為一個全陣容的影視網絡。

投資者還擔心，Netflix的核心業務正在經歷一次徹底的演變或者說改革。Netflix之所以能迅速崛起，獲得如今的江湖地位，正是因為它扮演了一個數字轉播平臺的角色——在網絡平臺上分銷各大電視臺制作的電視節目。當然，相對Netflix的最初業務來說，這本身也是一次重大轉變。這家公司最初是依靠出租流行電影DVD起家的。

這是一項成本相對較低的業務，因為Netflix不必制作自己的原創內容。然而現在，Netflix本質上已經轉型為一家獨立的電視電影制作公司，只不過它制作的絕大多數影視作品是通過自己的網絡平臺傳播的。

這意味著Netflix的成本將顯著升高，因為電視劇的制作成本往往高達幾百萬美元，電影的制作更是動輒消耗幾千萬甚至幾億美金。另外，人們對原創影視作品工作室和開發商的估值，也迥異于Netflix這樣的數字傳播平臺。

盡管原創影視的制作成本很高，但是Netflix除了走原創這條路子，也沒有多少其他選擇。主流的廣播電視網絡越來越不愿意授權Netflix轉播他們的影視節目，因為他們已經意識到，Netflix正在利用他們自己的節目偷走他們的觀眾。

這也就解釋了為什么越來越多的電視臺表示，他們將不會把劇集授權給Netflix播放，或者將推遲授權的時間。有幾家電視臺甚至開始提供自己的流媒體視頻服務，比如康卡斯特公司推出的Stream。

此外，他表示，簽訂美劇的全球轉播協議“并不順利”，部分原因是美國電視臺習慣于按特定國家和地區簽訂轉播協議，而不是簽訂全球性協議。但這也有可能是由于各大廣播電視臺覺得他們給予Netflix的已經太多了。

盡管Netflix在網絡視頻和電影領域面對著亞馬遜工作室這樣強勁的競爭對手，說不定還要和蘋果電視正面抗衡，但Netflix的股價2015年依然強勢上漲了近40%。

毫無疑問，Netflix已經憑借其內容取得了巨大的成功，很多電視觀眾更青睞Netflix的服務，而不是有線電視。但與此同時，Netflix正在走上一條成本持續大幅上漲的道路，而且它與傳統電視網絡和潛在對手的競爭也從未像今天這樣激烈。

Netflix的股價將繼續上漲多久？

Netflix已經一次又一次挺過了唱衰的聲音，其股價仍然在高歌猛進。但是，它能挺過潛在競爭對手的這輪襲擊嗎？

Netflix是怎么做到的？2014年一整年，各路專家都稱Netflix的股價被高估了，還有不少批評人士嘲笑了它的劇集質量。與此同時，一些強有力的競爭對手也正在構建自己的流媒體視頻服務，試圖擠進由Netflix獨霸的在線影視市場。

這樣說來，Netflix的處境本應非常艱難才對，然而它卻展現出了前所未有的大好勢頭，其股價上周達到了歷史最高的132美元。下圖展示了該公司9月份以來的股價走勢，大家好好感受一下。

Netflix’s stock price has soared over the past year, and it’s easy to see why. The streaming video company has several of the most popular shows around—including Jessica Jones and Narcos—and has disrupted the traditional television industry to the point where many “cord cutters” have given up cable altogether.

That’s the good news. But often when there’s a lot of good news, there’s also potential bad news lurking around the corner, and that’s what has some investors in Netflix NFLX -4.31% concerned.

Why Investors Are Getting Nervous

Recently, the two fears that sent Netflix shares tumbling more than 5% in a matter of hours were as follows: 1) That Netflix is going to see its costs dramatically increase, as it takes on more and more of its own original programming. And 2) That the company’s revenues might also be under pressure for a number of other reasons, including an ongoing battle with TV networks over licensing of their shows.

Those fears seem to have been triggered in part by comments that Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s chief content officer, made at a UBS media conference in New York.

For one thing, Sarandos expanded on previous reports that Netflix wants to add to the number of shows it produces. It now looks as though the company will almost double the number of original programs from what it put on its schedule this year. Instead of just 16 shows on the roster, including Orange Is The New Black and House of Cards, Netflix plans to have more than 30 of its own shows by the end of 2016, Sarandos said.

And that’s not all. According to several reports from the UBS conference, the Netflix executive said that the company is also working on 10 new feature films, 30 children’s shows, 12 documentaries, and 10 stand-up comedy specials. In other words, Netflix is becoming a full-fledged network.

Part of what investors are struggling with is that Netflix is undergoing a pretty fundamental evolution, or revolution, in what it does. The company rose to prominence as a digital distributor of TV programming produced by other companies—the major TV networks, etc. (which was in turn a pivot from its original business of renting DVD versions of popular movies).

That was a relatively low-cost business, since Netflix didn’t have to produce any of its own content. But now, the company is essentially becoming a standalone TV and motion picture studio, albeit one that distributes the majority of its product online.

That means dramatically higher costs, since TV shows can costs millions of dollars to develop and produce, and movies can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. Studios and developers of original programming also tend to be valued very differently from digital distribution channels like Netflix.

Despite the higher costs, however, Netflix doesn’t really have a choice when it comes to focusing on its own original content. Why? Because the major TV networks and broadcasters are becoming increasingly reluctant to license their shows to the company, in part because they have gradually realized that Netflix is stealing their customers—using their own content.

This explains why more and more networks are saying they will withhold shows from Netflix, or delay the period in which they license them. Severalare even trying their own Netflix-style streaming services, such as Stream from Comcast.

Then there was Sarandos’s second comment: The Netflix executive said signing global licensing deals for U.S. shows “has not been an easy road.” In part, that’s because U.S. networks are used to signing country-specific or regional licensing deals rather than global ones. But it’s also likely being driven by a growing concern on the part of broadcasters about how much they have given Netflix already.

Netflix shares have climbed by almost 40% so far this year, despite the appearance of some formidable competitors in the online video and movie market, including Amazon Studios AMZN -0.42% and potentially Apple TV AAPL -0.63% as well.

There’s no question that Netflix has been tremendously successful with its content, and a large segment of the TV-viewing public sees the service far more central to their lives than their cable subscription. But at the same time, the company is on a path that will see its costs continue to increase dramatically—and competition with existing TV networks and potential new players has never been more fierce.

How Long Can Netflix Keep Climbing?

Netflix has defied critics again and again, and it’s still riding high. But can it survive an onslaught of coming competitors?

How does Netflix do it? Over the course of the last year, analysts have claimed the company’s share price is over-valued, and critics have sneered at some of its shows. Meanwhile, powerful competitors are dialing up their streaming game in a bid to muscle in on Netflix’s TV and movie market.

By these accounts, Netflix NFLX -4.31% should be faltering. Instead the company is killing it like never before, as evidenced by a stock price pop that reached a new record high of $132 last week. To get a better idea of how Netflix is doing, here is a chart showing its stock since September:

在這一階段，科技股云集的納斯達克大盤只上浮了7%。Netflix高達40%的漲幅可謂相當驚艷。

那么，Netflix的增長勢頭又是從何而來呢？11月份有兩件事的確為它助力不少。其一，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場公司發布消息稱，半數以上的美國互聯網用戶都表示使用過Netflix觀看電影和電視。其二，著名分析師馬克·馬哈尼認為Netflix的股價可沖擊140美元。

不過Netflix很快就要面臨激烈的競爭了。另一家視頻網站Hulu 2015年9月已宣布，將推出一個免廣告的流媒體視頻平臺。更令Netflix擔心的，則是YouTube也宣布將斥巨資購買電視和電影作品轉播權的消息。目前還不知道Netflix將如何應對。與此同時，亞馬遜也加大了Prime視頻服務的廣告宣傳力度。Facebook也于2015年11月宣布，其日均視頻點擊量達到了80億次，看來Facebook遲早要推出一個專業的娛樂平臺。

隨著各大科技巨頭一齊進軍流媒體視頻市場，各大影視制作公司已經意識到有更多的買家看上了他們的影視節目，而對于Netflix來說，這意味著視頻內容的價格將不可避免地繼續攀升。Netflix已經宣布將適度上調用戶的會員費，不過目前還不清楚這能否抵消將來的內容采購成本。在這種情況下，Netflix一路飆升的股價（包括超過300倍的市盈率）可能很快就被證明是過于樂觀了。

另一方面，人們以前一度低估了Netflix。前CEO里德·哈斯廷斯曾放言，Netflix將成為HBO勢均力敵的競爭對手，惹得時代華納公司的老板將Netflix嘲諷為“阿爾巴尼亞軍隊”，而Netflix此后生猛的發展勢頭也響亮地打了這位大老板的臉。

在原創內容方面，雖然Netflix直到2012年才開始制作自己的影視作品，但事實證明，Netflix有能力制作出《超膽俠》這樣的佳作，從而抵消了《馬克波羅》這種爛片帶來的不利影響。一系列熱門原創劇集，加上它在美國巨大的市場份額，意味著Netflix仍將是2015年最成功的美國流媒體視頻網站。至于這個地位能不能保持到2016年年底，則完全是另一回事了。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

This is a remarkable rise of nearly 40% during a time when the tech-heavy NASDAQ index posted more modest gains of 7%.

So what’s the source of Netflix’s momentum? It’s hard to say. The company did get a nice boost in November when RBC Capital Markets reported that over half of American Internet users say they’ve used Netflix to watch movies and TV, and analyst Mark Mahoney predicted the stock could hit $140.

But it’s hard to see how this offsets the fact Netflix will soon face colossal competition, including from Hulu, which announced in September a new ad-freestreaming platform. And perhaps more frightening for Netflix, YouTube GOOG -0.46% said this month it will be opening its very big wallet to buy TV shows and movies too. Meanwhile, Amazon AMZN -0.42% has been upping its advertising game to promote its Prime video service. And finally, it feels like a matter of time before Facebook FB -0.54% , which in November boasted 8 billion video views a day, decides to offer a professional entertainment platform.

For Netflix, this means the price of precious content will climb as studios realize more buyers want to snap up their shows. The company has alreadyannounced a modest price increase, but it’s unclear if that will be enough to keep up with future content acquisitions costs. In this context, Netflix’s soaring share price (including its eye-watering price-to-earnings ratio of over 300) could soon prove optimistic.

On the other hand, people have underestimated Netflix before. The head of Time Warner TWX -0.35% once derided the company as the “Albanian army” only to watch Netflix CEO Reed Hastings make good on his promise to become a full-blown rival to HBO.

And when it comes to original content—which Netflix didn’t even have until 2012—the company keeps showing it can make good new shows like Daredevil that offset its hot messes like Marco Polo. The new hits, along with its huge U.S. marketshare, means Netflix will finish 2015 on top. Whether it will still be there at the end of next year is a whole other story.