在投資者眼中，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)如何影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)還很難預(yù)測(cè)。但作為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國(guó)怎樣發(fā)揮自身“軟實(shí)力”卻是個(gè)值得認(rèn)真討論的話題，尤其是近來(lái)中國(guó)與好萊塢關(guān)系越發(fā)緊密。

最近，大連萬(wàn)達(dá)集團(tuán)簽署協(xié)議，將收購(gòu)《侏羅紀(jì)世界》、《哥斯拉》等大片的制作公司傳奇影業(yè)。在此之前，中資企業(yè)在好萊塢已動(dòng)作連連。2015年3月，另一好萊塢制片公司獅門影業(yè)與湖南廣電傳媒達(dá)成了3.75億美元的融資協(xié)議。國(guó)有企業(yè)中影集團(tuán)投資了環(huán)球影業(yè)的《速度與激情7》以及索尼影業(yè)的《像素大戰(zhàn)》。華誼兄弟傳媒宣布，將參與投資美國(guó)STX娛樂(lè)公司18個(gè)電影項(xiàng)目，一同投資的還有私募股權(quán)基金弘毅投資。

在豪擲35億美元收購(gòu)傳奇影業(yè)股權(quán)以前，大連萬(wàn)達(dá)去年為杰克?吉倫哈爾主演的電影《鐵拳》提供了部分融資。（該司2012年以26億美元收購(gòu)了美國(guó)AMC影院公司，此舉被視為其在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)增強(qiáng)軟實(shí)力的嘗試。）

中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能正在放緩，但人們對(duì)電影的喜愛(ài)有增無(wú)減。中國(guó)目前是全球第二大電影市場(chǎng)，2015年票房占全球總票房的16%，多廳影院正以每周10家的速度增長(zhǎng)，電影行業(yè)增速是GDP的10倍。這對(duì)好萊塢來(lái)說(shuō)是好消息，說(shuō)明中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的盈利前景廣闊。

2014年，派拉蒙影業(yè)出品的《變形金剛：絕跡重生》成為中國(guó)史上票房第三高的影片。該片由中國(guó)女星李冰冰參演，部分場(chǎng)景在香港拍攝，上映后僅在中國(guó)就狂收3.2億美元。去年，《侏羅紀(jì)世界》和《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟：奧創(chuàng)紀(jì)元》在中國(guó)合計(jì)斬獲6.19億美元票房。而去年在中國(guó)最能“吸金”的好萊塢影片還屬《速度與激情7》，該片在中國(guó)的票房高達(dá)3.91億美元，比在美國(guó)的票房還高。最近登陸中國(guó)的《星球大戰(zhàn)：原力覺(jué)醒》創(chuàng)下了中國(guó)電影史上周六首映日的最高票房紀(jì)錄，估計(jì)上周末斬獲了3300萬(wàn)美元票房。對(duì)日漸成為“鐵哥們”的中國(guó)和好萊塢來(lái)說(shuō)，這或許是個(gè)新年吉兆。

在中國(guó)收獲成功的不只是好萊塢電影，“中國(guó)制造”的本土電影也從國(guó)內(nèi)觀眾人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)中受益。去年，動(dòng)畫角色與真人結(jié)合的《捉妖記》成為最賣座的國(guó)產(chǎn)影片，其國(guó)內(nèi)票房達(dá)到3.81億美元，也成為中國(guó)歷來(lái)票房排名第五位的電影。

但在中國(guó)觀眾為好萊塢影片穩(wěn)定貢獻(xiàn)票房的同時(shí)，能否長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)下去引發(fā)了不少質(zhì)疑。中國(guó)本土電影會(huì)在多大程度上影響好萊塢電影熱賣？眼下中國(guó)電影市場(chǎng)日漸火熱主要還是讓好萊塢賺到不少，但隨著國(guó)產(chǎn)電影質(zhì)量提升，中國(guó)觀眾對(duì)美國(guó)電影的興趣會(huì)不會(huì)減淡？

以去年的大賣影片為例：《速度與激情7》是中國(guó)票房最高的影片，可是全年票房前十的影片中有7部都是本土電影。說(shuō)起來(lái)中國(guó)的進(jìn)口電影配額制也是原因之一，中國(guó)政府每年僅批準(zhǔn)34部國(guó)外電影進(jìn)入本國(guó)市場(chǎng)。即便是全球同步首映已成為常態(tài)的今天，一些海外影片也不得不推遲在華上映時(shí)間?！缎乔虼髴?zhàn)：原力覺(jué)醒》就推遲到今年才在中國(guó)正式亮相。

不過(guò)，好萊塢和中國(guó)電影產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展壯大之間究竟是不是零和博弈還很難說(shuō)。也可能會(huì)是雙贏局面。

畢竟，從動(dòng)作片到動(dòng)畫片，好萊塢的大成本大制作影片通常都能靠著橫掃全球的吸引力，在美國(guó)之外的市場(chǎng)收獲熱情回應(yīng)，在中國(guó)即便面對(duì)本土影片的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也能輕松取勝。而且，隨著中國(guó)投資漸漸流入好萊塢，能在中美兩國(guó)（及全球其他地區(qū)）都熱賣的大片會(huì)相關(guān)各方都能獲益。

但隨著中國(guó)國(guó)產(chǎn)電影質(zhì)量提高，另一個(gè)問(wèn)題冒了出來(lái)：中國(guó)的電影行業(yè)會(huì)不會(huì)成為“東方好萊塢”，有朝一日殺入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)？或者說(shuō)，中國(guó)電影業(yè)未來(lái)會(huì)不會(huì)更像印度寶萊塢？寶萊塢每年制作的電影數(shù)量是美國(guó)的兩倍甚至不止，在國(guó)內(nèi)也有很大市場(chǎng)，卻很少在國(guó)外成功。

我認(rèn)為，無(wú)論如何，結(jié)果都會(huì)是雙贏的。很多人一直在哀嘆美國(guó)電影日薄西山，因?yàn)樵敢庾哌M(jìn)電影院的美國(guó)人越來(lái)越少，更多人選擇在家看Netflix網(wǎng)站，實(shí)在令人心寒。可現(xiàn)在，優(yōu)秀的電影得到了更多投資，還有十億新觀眾等著看。要避免電影藝術(shù)被短短30秒的YouTube視頻取代，中國(guó)可以幫上忙。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

作者布拉德?格羅斯曼成立了指導(dǎo)商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖把握文化趨勢(shì)的顧問(wèn)公司Zeitguide，出任該司首席執(zhí)行官。

譯者：Pessy

校對(duì)：夏林

How the growth of China is affecting the global economy continues to be a big wildcard on investors’ minds continues to be a big wildcard on investors’ minds but how the world’s second largest economy are spreading their “soft power” is an emerging conversation that’s worth taking a closer look as the country’s relationship with Hollywood continues to blossom.

Recently，Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group signed an acquisition deal with Legendary Entertainment, the Hollywood production company behind movies, such as Jurassic World and Godzilla.This follows others deals in Hollywood. Last March, Lions Gate got things going when it closed a $375-million film financing deal with Hunan TV. Government-owned China Film Group then invested in Universal’s Furious 7 and Sony’s Pixels.China’s Huayi Bros. Media Corp took a stake in 18 of STX’s movie projects while Chinese private-equity firm Hony Capital also invested heavily.

And before buying its stake in Legendary for $3.5 billion, the Dalian Wanda Corp partially financed last year’s Southpaw, starring Jake Gyllenhaal. (The conglomerate also bought AMC Cinema Chain for 2.6 billion in 2012 — a move that looked to be an attempt at strengthening its soft power stateside.)

China’s economy may be slowing, but their love of films certainty isn’t. The country is now the world’s second-largest film market, taking in 16% of global box office revenues in 2015. China is adding the equivalent of 10 new multiplexes every week. China’s theatrical movie business is growing 10 times faster than its GDP. That’s good news that means bigger dollar signs for Hollywood.

Paramount Pictures’ 2014 Transformers: Age of Extinction, which starred China’s Bingbing Li and was set partly in Hong Kong, became the third-highest grossing film in China by taking in $320 million in that nation alone. Last year’s Jurassic World and Avengers: Age of Ultron made a combined $619 million in China. Furious 7, the 2015 top earner in China, made $391 million in the country, which was more than it made at the box office in the United States. More recently, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, gobbled up an estimated $33 million this past weekend in the biggest Saturday open ever in China for any film. A good sign for the New Year as China and Hollywood become firm bed buddies.

It’s not just Hollywood films finding success in the country either. “Made-in-China” movies are reaping benefits from the country’s growing domestic audience. The animated film Monster Hunt became the highest grossing Chinese-made movie ever, raking in over $381 million in domestic box office, making it the fifth highest-grossing film in China of all time.

But as Chinese moviegoers becomes a reliable revenue stream for Hollywood, questions around its long-term stability get louder. How much will Chinese-made films impact the popularity of Hollywood films in China? For now, China’s growing love affair with movies still largely benefits Tinsel Town; but with the quality of Chinese films on the rise, could interest in U.S. films by Chinese audiences may wane?

Case in point: Furious 7 was the highest grossing film in China, but 7 of the top 10 box office draws in 2015 were actually Chinese-made movies. China’s film quota also doesn’t help either. The government allows only 34 foreign films to be released in China each year, pushing some films to delay their releases even as big global openings are becoming the norm. The new Star Wars film was bumped to 2016 in China.

But whether this is a zero-sum game between Hollywood and China’s expanding film industry is still yet to be seen. And both could still benefit side-by-side.

After all, Hollywood’s biggest and most successful blockbusters – from the action-packed to the animated – tend to resonate beyond the U.S., often rely on having a wide-global appeal and could thrive in China without competing too much with the country’s homegrown films. And with so much Chinese investment now flowing into Hollywood regularly from China, the rewards that can be reaped from blockbuster films that appeal in both countries (and beyond), benefits all parties involved.

But with the increasing quality of Chinese-made films, here’s another question: Is China’s film industry becoming a “Hollywood East,” which could some day make a push into the American market? Or is its future going to be more like India’s Bollywood, which produces twice as many films as the U.S. (often more) and has a larger domestic audience, but lacks crossover success?

Whatever happens in my point of view, it’s a win-win. Many have been lamenting the fall of the movie business as fewer people in America go to the theatres and more stay home watching Netflix and chilling. But now there’s more money to make great films and a billion new consumers that will watch them. China can help save this storytelling art form from being replaced by the 30- second YouTube video.

Brad Grossman is the founder and CEO of Zeitguide, a consultancy that guides business leaders on cultural trends.