2016年將完全是由云創建主導的世界，“獨角獸”將在全新領域大展拳腳，而數據流動的速度比光還快。

對于企業技術領域的局外人來說，這聽起來像是天方夜譚，或是有點像最新一部《星球大戰》電影。但作為企業技術領域的一位資深投資者，我曾在英特爾投資、Battery Ventures服務過，我預計一些看似異想天開的預測將在2016年成為現實?，F在讓我們更細致地觀察企業技術領域在新的一年里有望出現的七大趨勢。

1.2016年將出現企業并購熱潮

我認為，戴爾和EMC最近的并購協議，只是企業技術領域合并浪潮的開端。在這一規模超過1萬億美元的市場，思科系統、戴爾和IBM等公司占據了統治地位。為了爭奪全球每年3000億美元的信息技術投入，這些頂級公司正在與越來越多的初創公司展開殊死競爭。高德納公司表示，企業技術行業的顛覆時機已經成熟。在云計算、大數據、新一代存儲技術和開源技術等熱門領域，大批初創公司不斷涌現。舊有的大公司如今處在嚴重的危機中，許多公司需要采取激烈舉措才能維持競爭力。

認識到這種新形勢的藍籌股公司或將積極地展開并購，以追趕當今云計算領域的王者——亞馬遜云服務(AWS)。第二大巨頭微軟有可能通過收購紅帽公司等私有云領域的佼佼者，來加強它在混合云領域的優勢。鑒于用于數據中心的數千億美元資金開始流向云領域，這種舉措可以幫助微軟從中分得一大杯羹。另一方面，在新任高級副總裁戴安妮?格林的領導下，谷歌也開始重視企業技術和云服務業務。這家搜索巨頭可能會通過收購Mesos或Docker公司，來吸引Pinterest和Airbnb等大型互聯網公司“全網規?！钡臄祿摵?。IBM有可能收購Openstack市場的領先企業，以期在私人云計算方面占得先機。

2.亞馬遜云服務只是剛剛開始

與第一條相關，2016年是企業技術領域徹底接受公共云和混合云的一年。正因如此，繼2015年第二季度達成令人驚嘆的80%增長率之后，亞馬遜云服務將在新的一年再創佳績。事實上，這家亞馬遜分公司有可能成為整個企業基礎設施歷史上增長最快，價值數十億美元的公司。另外，由于首席信息官反感廠商捆綁服務，Microsoft Azure在吸引新客戶方面也不會落后太多，將穩居第二位。

3.開源軟件正在吞食世界——不過怎么從中賺錢？

開源將在2016年成為基礎軟件的標準，各公司的首席信息官將接受源代碼開放、軟件為先的策略。早期開源市場的領導者成為主流以后，將分為兩派——一種有著明確的盈利模式，例如Cloudera*、MongoDB*、Elastic、Datastax和Mirantis*，另一種空有數百萬下載量，卻沒有收入。第一類中那些更具經濟頭腦的初創公司可能會在明年上市，為更多開源公司在未來幾年上市奠定堅實的基礎。

4.獨角獸和“前獨角獸”將正面交鋒

獨角獸（估值超過10億美元的私人初創公司）和前獨角獸（估值下滑至10億美元以下的初創公司）的差距將在明年見分曉。科技公司首次公開募股后乏善可陳的市場表現，已經給后期發展融資帶來了壓力，這種新情況會迫使許多獨角獸做出艱難的選擇。

基礎雄厚、發展迅猛的企業將咬緊牙關，勇敢上市，即使他們不得不接受低于最后一輪私人募資的估值——Pure Storage 和New Relic等公司已經出現了這種情況。我相信這類公司會選擇專注于創造長期的股權價值，重視上市后的表現，Tableau和Splunk*等公司就是這么做的。

相反，前獨角獸公司已經在他們的業務上一擲千金，于是不得不考慮縮小規?；蚴浅鍪酃?，以避免出局。注意：不要把募資能力和花錢水平混為一談！

5.快數據與大數據一樣重要

多年來，大數據一直十分流行，不過光是大數據已經不夠了。隨著數據速度的增加，公司必須迅速分析大數據，立刻獲取可靠、可執行的建議。這能幫助他們更好地服務客戶，支撐公司的盈利。我預計，Storm和Spark Streaming等新技術將在2016年被市場完全接受，電子商務和金融技術服務領域還將涌現出一批采用高速數據分析方法的實時應用。“快數據”是大數據的二次迭代，它將創造大量價值。

6.安全2.0：機器學習可以擊敗經驗豐富的黑客

今年，你幾乎每天都能聽到某家大型企業或政府機構遭到黑客襲擊的新聞。而在2016年，我認為將有阻擋黑客的全新安全解決方案面世。怎么阻擋？利用“機器學習”。這個計算機科學新領域將利用模式識別來尋找惡意目的，預測未來的漏洞。在今年早些時候，Splunk收購了使用機器學習技術搜尋網絡威脅的Caspida公司，這一趨勢由此獲得關注。今年9月份，大數據安全分析公司Exabeam也募得了多達2500萬美元資金。預計在2016年，機器學習會得到更廣泛的應用，以應對甚至提前預防復雜的網絡攻擊。

7.西方將在東方（不是中國?。で笊虡I機遇

印度的互聯網用戶已經超過3.52億人，并且還在持續增加。該國的移動和網絡級生態系統，將成為美國企業軟件公司的巨大市場。對于這些初創公司來說，印度購物網站Snapdeal，Flipkart，以及打車應用Ola Cabs，現在代表著巨大的銷售機遇。這類似于美國企業軟件公司過去將產品賣給Pinterest、LinkedIn和Twitter的情形，只不過印度可能蘊含著更大的機遇，更快的增長速度。由于沒有當地的基礎軟件參與競爭，印度有可能顯著驅動整個行業的云服務和數據分析開支。

總體來說，企業技術初創公司擁有巨大的力量來塑造和改變許多行業，但他們無法獨自實現這一點。通過與現有巨頭合作，擴大開源軟件、快數據和云計算的應用，我們將發現更多的商業機遇，創造出并非幻想，而是真實存在的強大服務。（財富中文網）

DharmeshThakker是Battery Ventures的普通合伙人，現居硅谷。他曾是英特爾資本公司的普通合伙人。

* 文中標注星號的是Intel Capital或Battery在過去或現在投資的公司。

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

Worlds created entirely of clouds. “Unicorns” racing through new landscapes. Data moving faster than the speed of light.

For those of you who don’t work in enterprise technology, this may sound like a fantasy world—or a little like the latest Star Wars movie. But based on my experience as an enterprise-tech investor, first at Intel Capital and now at Battery Ventures, I predict a few of these far-fetched scenarios could become reality in 2016. Here’s a closer look at seven enterprise-tech trends I believe will hit their stride in the coming year.

1.2016 will be an M&A bonanza.

The recent merger agreement between Dell and EMC was just the start of a consolidation tidal wave I expect to see next year in enterprise IT, where top companies like Cisco Systems CSCO 0.96% , Dell, IBM and others command a combined market capitalization north of $1 trillion. They are now locked in a battle with many startups for $300 billion of annual IT spending worldwide that, according to Gartner, is ripe for disruption. These startups operate in hot areas such as cloud computing, big data, next-generation storage and open-source technology. The incumbents are in serious jeopardy, and many will need to take dramatic steps to stay competitive.

Progressive blue chips will recognize this new state of affairs and aggressively get into the acquisitions game to catch up with Amazon Web Services (AWS), the current king of cloud computing. The number-two player, Microsoft MSFT 0.95% , could supercharge its hybrid- cloud play by purchasing a private-cloud leader such as Red Hat RHT 0.56% . This sort of move could help Microsoft capture some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in datacenter spending now shifting to the cloud. Google GOOG 0.30% , under new SVP Diane Greene’s leadership, will get serious about enterprise and cloud and could buy Mesos or Docker to attract “Web scale” workloads from huge Internet companies like Pinterest and Airbnb; IBM IBM 1.79% could take the lead in private cloud computing by acquiring an Openstack market leader.

2. AWS is just getting started.

Related to #1, 2016 is the year that enterprise tech will wholeheartedly embrace the public and hybrid cloud. Because of this, AWS is going to experience another record year — on top of the impressive 80% growth it logged during Q2 2015. This division of Amazon AMZN -0.20% could, in fact, become the fastest-growing, multi-billion dollar company in the entire history of enterprise infrastructure. And since CIOs dislike vendor lock-in, the agnostic Microsoft Azure won’t be far behind in signing up new customers, staying firmly entrenched in second place.

3. Open-source software is eating the world – but where’s the money?

Open source will become standard for infrastructure software in 2016, with CIOs adopting an open-source, software-first approach. Early open-source market leaders that have gone mainstream will split into two camps: those that have clear monetization models—like Cloudera*, MongoDB*, Elastic, Datastax, and Mirantis*—and those that have millions of downloads but no revenue to show for it. Some of the more financially savvy startups in the first category are likely to go public next year, forming a strong foundation for more open-source businesses to enter the public markets in coming years.

4. Unicorns and bloodied “unicorpses” will face off.

Next year will reveal the differences between unicorns (private startups whose values exceed $1 billion) and unicorpses (former unicorns whose value has slipped under $1 billion). The tech IPO market’s lackluster performance is already putting pressure on late-stage growth financings, and this new landscape will force many unicorns to make some tough choices.

Fast-growing enterprise companies with strong fundamentals will bite the bullet and bravely go public, even if they have to accept lower valuations than those recorded in their last private rounds – something that happened already with companies like Pure Storage PSTG 1.19% and New Relic NEWR 1.78% . I believe companies like these will choose to focus on long-term equity value creation, post-IPO, as has been the case with companies like Tableau DATA 4.65% and Splunk* SPLK -0.17% .

In contrast, ex-unicorn companies that spent extravagantly on their businesses could be forced to consider down-rounds or sale options to stay in the game. Note: Don’t confuse the ability to raise money with the desire to spend it!

5. Fast data is just as important as big data.

For years now, big data has been all the rage, but it’s no longer sufficient. With data velocity on the rise, companies must be able to rapidly analyze big data and get sound, actionable advice instantaneously. This will help them better service customers and also bolster their bottom lines. I predict new technologies like Storm and Spark Streaming will be fully embraced by the market in 2016, and we’ll witness the emergence of a new class of real-time applications in e-commerce and financial technology services powered by super-speedy data analytics. “Fast data” is the second iteration of big data, and it will create a lot of value.

6. Security 2.0: Machine learning can beat sophisticated hackers.

This year, you could barely go a day without hearing about yet another security hack at a major corporation or government agency. In 2016, I believe we’ll see the emergence of a new class of security solutions that attempt to outsmart hackers. How? By using “machine learning,” a field of computer science that leverages pattern recognition to extract malicious intent and make predictions about future exploits. The first wave of this trend was highlighted by Splunk’sacquisition earlier this year of Caspida, which uses machine-learning technology to ferret out cyber threats, and the $25 million raised in September by Exabeam, a big-data security analytics company. But in 2016 I predict we’ll see machine learning used more broadly to keep up with, and even pre-empt, sophisticated cyber attacks.

7. The West will look East (not China!) for business opportunities.

With more than 352 million Internet users and counting, India’s mobile and Web-scale ecosystem will become a large marketplace for U.S.-based, enterprise software companies. Indian shopping sites Snapdeal and Flipkart, and transit app Ola Cabs, now represent significant sales opportunity for these startups, similar to what we experienced in the U.S. with enterprise companies selling to Pinterest, LinkedIn LNKD 0.45% and Twitter TWTR 1.90% — only the Indian opportunity could be much larger and grow at a faster pace. And with no legacy infrastructure competing for attention, India could be a significant driver for overall industry cloud and analytics spending.

Overall, enterprise-tech startups have immense power to shape and move many industries, but they can’t go at it alone. By working together with well-established companies to further the adoption of open-source software, fast data and cloud computing, we’ll uncover even more new business opportunities— and create strong services that aren’t fantasy, but reality.

DharmeshThakker is a Silicon Valley-based general partner at Battery Ventures, and previously was with Intel Capital.

*Denotes a current or former Intel Capital or Battery investment.