“沒有人再掏錢買石油了。”這是我從彭博社評論員湯姆?基恩聽到的第一句話。當時快到下午五點，我剛打開電視機，耳邊就傳來他的這句點評。

媒體總會跟隨情緒而動，而基恩表達的正是全球原油貿易商的情感——充滿了絕望。

沒有買家，只有賣家。這種時候終于還是來了！

作為一名社會經濟學家，以及研究信心如何改變我們的偏好、決定和行為的研究員，我想在此提出一個不同的觀點。隨著市場陷入絕望，行情觸底。這意味著現在可能不適合賣出，卻正是準備投資的好時機——不僅要投資原油，還要關注其他礦物產品。

原油投資者感覺絕望是有道理的，尤其是考慮到最近許多新聞報道傳達出的消息。隨著如今美國原油供過于求，國會投票決定解除原油出口禁令。由于油價暴跌，俄羅斯的盧布也在瘋狂貶值。而巴黎氣候變化會談傳來的消息也表明，其最終協約標志著“化石燃料時代落幕的開始”。

引人注目的是，在油價暴跌65%之后，許多人估計接下來還會有50%的跌幅，并將在未來幾年中持續保持低位。例如，高盛集團就預計，未來原油價格將跌至每桶20美元。雪上加霜的是，投資者目前認為石油輸出國組織（OPEC）根本不愿意、也沒有能力去做點什么，來改變油價暴跌的悲慘趨勢。曾經實力強大的壟斷聯盟，如今在明爭暗斗、越演越烈的國家利己主義和全球供應過度的背景下，已是日薄西山。

不過原油的壞消息還不止于此。從美國不同尋常的溫暖天氣到美聯儲（Federal Reserve）決定加息來減緩全球增長，一切似乎都對原油的需求不利。與此同時，原油還存在產能過剩和供給過多的問題。現在的原油太多了，我們已經沒有倉庫來存儲它們了。就像一篇文章的標題所說：“油輪里裝滿了油，全球的存儲空間十分緊缺。”

依我之見，投資者如今有充分的理由賣出，完全沒理由再去買入。不只是現在的情形令人恐慌，將來的情形更加不容樂觀。

不過請注意，同樣的預測在其他許多礦產領域也存在，尤其是金屬行業。黃金最近被比作“寵物石頭”（pet rock）。礦業公司正在削減資本支出和工作崗位。巴西、南非等依托礦產的國家的貨幣開始暴跌，這兩個國家都宣布任命了新的財政部長——南非甚至換了兩任，因為第一任在阻止貨幣暴跌上毫無建樹。

此外，國際能源署也在最新發布的報告中稱，“煤炭的黃金時代似乎已經結束了……考慮到太陽能和風能成本的急劇降低，以及更嚴格的氣候相關政策，我們不禁懷疑煤炭價格能否恢復原來水平。”

該停下來想想了。專家現在說煤炭已死，再也回不來了，言論中充滿了絕望。

礦產投資者、外匯投資者、股票和債券投資者、公共政策制定者、采購者、供應商，甚至依托礦產的國家的選民，所有人都感覺到了——更重要的是表達出了——一種極端絕望的情緒。不過根據我所看到的，無論你是不是擔心油價暴跌，我們都身處原油和其他礦產長達幾個月甚至可能幾年的價格低迷中。

我意識到，在這種情況下買入會顯得十分可笑，不過這恰恰是很好的時機。買入的最佳點就是投資者仿佛重新回到中學食堂，不得不再次體驗那種最孤獨、最尷尬的時刻。在這時候買入，就意味著與所有那些大聲嚷嚷的人背道而馳。

盡管很少人愿意去做，但歷史證明，如今充滿絕望的情況，正是買入的大好時機。（財富中文網）

彼得?亞特華德是Financial Insyghts LLC總裁、著有《情緒與市場》（Moods and Markets）一書。

譯者：嚴匡正

“There is no bid for oil.” Those were the first words I heard recently from Bloomberg’s Tom Keene when I turned on the television a little before five.

The media follows mood, and Mr. Keene was expressing the sentiment of crude oil traders around the globe—saturating hopelessness. No one buying. Only selling.

Finally!

As a socionomist and a researcher who studies how changes in confidence alter our preferences, decisions, and actions, l’d like to propose a different response. Markets bottom on saturating hopeless. That means now might not be the time to sell, but instead to get ready to invest–and not just in crude oil, but across the commodity space.

That crude investors feel hopeless makes sense, especially when you consider the backdrop of many recent news stories. With the U.S. now awash in crude, Congress voted to reverse its peak-in-the-price ban on oil exports. Due to collapsing oil prices, the Russian ruble is in freefall. And reports coming out of the Paris climate change talks suggested that last week’s pact marked the “beginning of the end of fossil fuels.”

Remarkably, after a 65% decline, many are projecting another 50% decline in oil prices, with the cost of crude expected to remain low for years to come. Goldman Sachs GS -0.26% , for example, is forecasting $20 a barrel crude prices ahead. Even more, investors now believe that OPEC is completely unwilling and unable to do anything to change the downward trajectory for the price oil. The once all-powerful cartel has been upended by bitter infighting, intense national self-interest and global oversupply.

But the bad news for crude doesn’t stop there. From the unusually warm weather in the US to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates to slowing global growth ahead, everything is seen as a demand headwind for crude. Meanwhile, crude oil overcapacity and oversupply reigns. There is so much crude out there we’ve now run out of places to put it. As one headline put it recently, “Oil Tankers Are Filling Up As Global Storage Space Runs Low.”

As I see it, investors now have every reason to sell and absolutely no reason to buy. Not only are current conditions horrific, but they’re forecast to just get worse.

But please appreciate that the same can be said for many other sectors of the commodity space, especially the metals. Gold was recently analogized to a “pet rock.” Mining companies are slashing capital expenditures and jobs. The currencies of commodity-driven countries like Brazil and South Africa are in freefall, with both countries announcing new finance ministers–and in the case of South Africa, two finance ministers, as the naming of the first replacement did nothing to stem the country’s currency collapse.

Then there was this from a new report from the International Energy Agency last week: “The golden age of coal seems to be over . . . Given the dramatic fall in the cost of solar and wind generation and the stronger climate policies that are anticipated, the question is whether coal prices will ever recover.”

Just pause to think about that. Experts are now saying coal is dead and will never come back. Talk about expressing hopelessness.

Everyone from commodity investors to foreign exchange investors to stock and bond investors to public policymakers to purchasers to suppliers to even the voters in commodity-driven countries feels—and more importantly is expressing—a sense of extreme of hopelessness. But based on what I see, with or without one final scare-the-lights-out of you whoosh lower, we’re within moments of a multi-month, if not multi-year low in crude oil and other commodity prices.

I realize that to buy under these conditions would be laughable, but that’s precisely why the opportunity is great. The best time to buy is when investors have to relive their loneliest and most awkward middle school lunchroom moments. To buy commodities now means to go against the entire and very vocal cool crowd.

While few will be willing, history suggests that today’s saturating hopelessness makes this is a great time to buy.

Peter Atwater is the president of Financial Insyghts LLC and the author of Moods and Markets. He is a frequent writer and speaker on the role of confidence in decision making.