自2012年以來，Oculus Rift一直都是虛擬現實領域的“模范生”——去年，Facebook斥資20億美元收購Oculus，令其身價陡增。現在，虛擬現實愛好者們正在焦急等待著Oculus Rift頭盔的具體上市日期，但該公司仍然猶抱琵琶半遮面。

在11月末的“游戲大獎”活動上，許多人期望Oculus創始人帕爾默?勒基將公布這一產品上市日期和價格。但他只是介紹了一款即將上市的新游戲《搖滾樂隊VR版》。不過，Oculus此前曾宣布將在今年年底之前開始預售，這一計劃并沒有改變，帕爾默也在活動上重申Oculus Rift將在2016年第1季度上市。

虛擬現實界對Rift翹首以盼的同時，Oculus和三星聯合推出的產品Gear VR已經吸引了許多人的注意。雖然還沒有官方統計數據，但Gear VR的銷量似乎異常火爆，這款設備在亞馬遜上已經脫銷，三星官網也宣布，無法保證在12月25日前發貨。

準備在明年大展身手的虛擬現實頭戴設備還有HTC和Valve聯合推出的The Vive，以及索尼的PlayStation VR（原名“墨菲斯計劃”）。這兩款產品并未公布上市日期，不過預計將在明年上半年發售。

無論是在技術上，還是對于娛樂業而言，虛擬現實都是一項巨大的進步，但分析師警告，雖然媒體一直在熱炒“2016年是虛擬現實元年”的說法（或許也是增強現實的元年，這取決于微軟增強現實產品Hololens的表現），但虛擬現實行業在2016年或將迎來慢熱開局。

麥格理資本公司的本?沙克特表示：“打個不太常用的比方，比如棒球賽，我們認為，現在連第一局都尚未開始。在虛擬現實/增強現實領域，我們才剛剛進入停車場，接下來才是停車場派對的時間。三星帶來了一箱六瓶裝的百威清啤酒，Facebook打來電話說要帶一種新的微釀啤酒，索尼可能帶來一款更大眾化的美味愛爾啤酒。到2016年底，我們就能清楚谷歌正在‘醞釀’什么，或許蘋果也會駐足觀望，觀察這個行業的形勢。只有在2016年之后，虛擬現實/增強現實的競賽才算真正開始。”

在本周末的PlayStation體驗會上，索尼將展示更多虛擬現實技術，即將發布的新游戲將在此次活動上首次亮相。2015年，Valve和HTC沒有按計劃發布The Vive，而HTC目前依然無法擺脫財務困境，這兩家公司基本上已經進入了沉默期。

內容對于虛擬現實至關重要，尤其是在游戲領域。市場上早已有開發工具，然而，盡管有報道稱注入虛擬現實領域的投資已達到40億美元，但市場對虛擬現實獲得全線突破的預期依舊相對較低。

沙克特認為：“某些設備給出的承諾過高，最終可能無法達到預——這是不可避免的。但只要這些設備開始進入消費者手中，并且開發者發布的內容能夠超越最初給人的新鮮感，帶來真正獨一無二的，有用的體驗，那么在未來十年內，隨著虛擬現實/增強現實技術的發展，娛樂、通信和許多企業功能都將發生翻天覆地的變化。”

就連投入大量資源創造虛擬現實游戲的開發者也認為，虛擬現實技術將沿著曲線軌跡緩慢發展。

CCG Games公司有3個工作室，共40人正在開發虛擬現實項目。CEO希爾馬?佩特松表示：“對于前三年，我們堅持慎重的態度。鑒于當前的市場狀態，如果過早進入市場，我們可能會高估前10年的發展，而對之后10年估計不足，這是很常見的。我們無法逆轉時光，但快速前進則要容易得多。”

不過，也有分析師持樂觀態度：投資銀行派杰公司的分析師特拉維斯?賈克爾認為，至2016年底，將有1220萬臺虛擬現實頭盔進入普通家庭。他預計，Rift的銷量將達到360萬臺，Gear VR可達到500萬臺。Vive預計可銷售210萬臺，而PlayStation VR預計可達到140萬臺。

每一款虛擬現實系統均有各自的優勢，2016年的群雄逐鹿將非常有趣。Oculus背后有實力雄厚的Facebook支持，所以很可能推出帶補貼的頭戴設備，以促進消費者采購。背靠Valve公司的虛擬現實設備Vive，坐擁全球最大的電腦游戲發行系統Steam的支持。該系統擁有超過1.25億活躍用戶。而PlayStation VR則是唯一一款專為游戲機設計的系統，玩家無需依賴個人電腦的圖形和計算機處理能力，即可獲得始終如一的體驗。

市場調研機構The NPD Group的游戲行業分析師利亞姆?卡拉漢表示：“虛擬現實備受矚目。很長時間以來，我們一直在接受虛擬現實文化的熏陶，例如《星際迷航》里的全息甲板，或者《X戰警》里的危險室。事實上：我們已經摸到了虛擬現實世界的門檻。”（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

審校：任文科

Since 2012, the Oculus Rift has been the poster child for virtual reality—a status that was upgraded immeasurable last year when Facebook FB 1.72% bought Oculus for $2 billion. Now VR enthusiasts are waiting to learn exactly when they can own one, but the company continues to play coy.

Many expected Oculus founder Palmer Luckey to announce the system’s launch date and price during The Game Awards on Thursday night. Instead, he showcased an upcoming game called Rock Band VR. Oculus, though, has not changed its position that pre-orders for the system will begin before the end of the year, and Palmer reiterated the Q1 2016 launch date at the show.

As the VR world continues to wait for the Rift, it seems the public has become seemingly distracted by the Gear VR, a product resulting from a partnership between Oculus and Samsung SSNLF 4.76% . While no official figures are available for that system, it appears to be selling briskly, with Amazon AMZN 0.87% unable to keep it in stock and Samsung’s own site saying it can no longer guarantee delivery by Dec. 25.

Also warming up on deck for next year is The Vive, a VR headset by HTC and Valve, as well as Sony’s SNE 0.55% PlayStation VR (formerly known as Project Morpheus). Both products lack firm launch dates, but will likely be ready for delivery in the first half of next year.

Virtual reality is certainly a big advancement, both technologically and for the entertainment industry, but analysts warn that despite the anticipated media blitz and proclamations that 2016 is the year of VR (and, perhaps, augmented reality as well, depending on what Microsoft does with Hololens), it’s going to be a slow start.

“To over use the not used often enough baseball analogy, we don’t even think we are in the first inning yet,” says Ben Schachter of Macquarie Capital. “For VR/AR, we have just pulled into the parking lot and tailgating is about to begin. Samsung just arrived with a six-pack of Bud Light, Facebook FB 1.72% called and is bringing a new microbrew, and Sony might bring a more mass-market palatable ale. By the end of 2016, we’ll have a better sense of what’s been brewing at Google GOOG 1.90% , Microsoft MSFT 3.16% , and perhaps Apple AAPL 3.32% might even stop by just to see where this is all going. Only after 2016 will the VR/AR game begin.”

Sony, meanwhile, is expected to show off more of its VR technology this weekend at its PlayStation Experience fan event, which includes first looks at unannounced games that will soon launch. Valve and HTC have largely gone into quite mode after missing their scheduled 2015 commercial launch and HTC’s ongoing financial troubles.

Content is critical for VR, especially in the gaming space. While developer kits have been around for some time, expectations for true breakthrough titles are still fairly low on all fronts, despite the reported $4 billion investors have put into the field.

“It is … inevitable that some of these devices will overpromise and under deliver,” says Schachter. “Yet, once these devices begin to get into consumers hands and developers launch content that moves beyond the ‘wow’ moment and into uniquely, useful experiences, it will be clear that entertainment, communication, and many enterprise functions will change dramatically over the coming decade as VR/AR evolve.”

Even developers who are pouring resources into creating VR games say they expect the technology to be on a slow curve trajectory upwards.

“We’re taking a cautionary view for the first three years,” says Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of CCP Games, which has 40 people in three studios working on VR projects. “When you’re early to a market like this, it’s extremely common to overestimate what happens in the first 10 years and underestimate what happens in the next 10. … It’s hard to wind back the clock, but it’s much easier to fast forward.”

However, some analysts are a bit more optimistic: Piper Jaffray analyst Travis Jakel says that by the end of 2016, there could be 12.2 million VR headsets in homes. He expects Rift sales to come in at 3.6 million and Gear VR to hit 5 million. Vive, meanwhile, is estimated to sell 2.1 million units, while PlayStation VR is slated to sell 1.4 million.

Each VR system has its own advantages that should make the 2016 battle interesting. Oculus has the deep pockets of Facebook behind it, which could result in a subsidized headset, aiding consumer adoption. Vive’s association with Valve gives the headset a link to Steam, the largest PC gaming distribution system with over 125 million active users. Meanwhile, PlayStation VR is the only system designed for consoles, ensuring that players get a consistent experience that’s not reliant on their PC’s graphics and computer processing power.

“It has a lot of buzz,” says Liam Callahan, games industry analyst for The NPD Group. “We’ve been promised VR culturally, whether it’s the holodeck in Star Trek or the Danger Room in X-Men, for a long time. And the fact is: We’re on the doorstep of it.”

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

審校：任文科