美國東部時(shí)間12月21日20：29（北京時(shí)間22日上午9：29），埃隆?穆斯克旗下SpaceX公司在佛羅里達(dá)州卡納維拉爾角成功發(fā)射Falcon 9火箭，并成功著陸回收。此前，杰夫?貝佐斯旗下Blue Origins公司也順利完成了其制造的可重復(fù)使用火箭的發(fā)射和著陸。

在如火如荼的太空競賽中，這都是重大事件，意義非凡。因?yàn)槟壳八谢鸺谶M(jìn)入太空之后，要么遭到毀壞，要么被拋棄。因此，在實(shí)現(xiàn)太空飛行商業(yè)化和日常化的過程中，火箭的重復(fù)使用是關(guān)鍵一步。

雖然埃隆?穆斯克、杰夫?貝佐斯都沒有去過人類從未抵達(dá)的地方，但這些都標(biāo)志著他們在探索太空商業(yè)化的競爭中，已領(lǐng)先于競爭對手。

命運(yùn)共同體

如今的太空競賽與尼爾?阿姆斯特朗登月時(shí)期有顯著區(qū)別。Blue Origin和SpaceX等公司的出現(xiàn)，代表了太空行業(yè)管制放松的大方向，也體現(xiàn)了投資者個人的信念和愿景。他們心懷更大的志向，并為之投入了數(shù)以十億計(jì)的資金。太空探索最初受到了NASA提供的政府種子基金的刺激，如今已演變?yōu)橐豁?xiàng)規(guī)模龐大的業(yè)務(wù)——未來十年，商業(yè)太空活動的規(guī)模預(yù)計(jì)將在今天2500億美元的基礎(chǔ)上翻一番。

此外，今天的太空競賽不再是只有一個勝利者的廝殺。它更多的是一種聯(lián)合體競爭，通常包括私人實(shí)體和多家政府機(jī)構(gòu)，集合了商界、科研界和軍方的利益。

太空探索不僅受到了商業(yè)利益的驅(qū)動，同時(shí)也是源自人類內(nèi)心對于沖出地球走向太空的渴望。下一步將是登陸火星。因此，太空競賽2.0的終極目標(biāo)是為人類尋找另一個生存的家園。在開發(fā)外太空旅行、提升人類在其他星球定居能力這一旅程中，必將出現(xiàn)多位贏家。

這種成功模式類似于商業(yè)競爭，自然會出現(xiàn)財(cái)富的興衰起伏，它并非兩個超級大國之間你死我活的殊死決斗。所以，未來還會有其他公司參與競爭，這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑。

在競爭過程中誕生的勝利者，將是具有遠(yuǎn)見且有財(cái)力支持開發(fā)太空活動商業(yè)應(yīng)用的國家和公司。由此誕生的新市場將對我們的生活產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。

Elon Musk’s SpaceX successfully landed a Falcon 9 rocket’s first stage on Monday following a satellite launch, marking a major success for the upstart space cargo company.

SpaceX’s rival, Blue Origin, which is backed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, successfully launched and landed a sub-orbital rocket in Texas last month.

At present, all rockets being launched into space are either destroyed or abandoned after take-off. So the race to make them reusable is the next crucial step toward making space flight commercially viable and routine.

Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos may not have gone where no man has gone before, but in successfully landing their rocket back on Earth. It’s a significant coup in the latest incarnation of the space race.

A joint effort

Today’s space race is far different from the days when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon. The emergence of Blue Origin and SpaceX is as much a reflection of a less regulated space industry as the conviction and vision of the individuals who are investing billions in pursuit of bigger objectives. Originally spurred by government seed funding from NASA, space exploration has become big business – and commercial space activity is expected to double over the next decade from today’s $250 billion.

What’s more, today’s space race is less of a competition with only one possible winner. This is a race of consortia that often includes both private entities and multiple government agencies. It brings together commercial, scientific and military interests.

In many ways it is driven by a perceived need to expand the human presence beyond a single planet – not just commercial interests. The next step is journeying to Mars. Thus, the ultimate goal of the space race 2.0 is couched in existential ideas of survival. And, while we develop the capability to travel and settle on other planets, there will be several winners along the way.

The pattern of success will resemble commercial competition, with its ebbs and flows and changes in fortunes, rather than a duel between two superpowers with a clear symbolic goalpost.Undoubtedly followed by others who enter the race.

The winners along the way will be the states and companies with the foresight and finance to develop the commercial applications of space activities. The offerings will create new markets and make an impact on the way we lead our lives.

太空探索的大眾化

太空探索行業(yè)正在發(fā)生變化。之前的太空探索行業(yè)一直是傳統(tǒng)的分級模式，商業(yè)實(shí)體只是作為國家機(jī)構(gòu)的供應(yīng)商，國家機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)設(shè)想、主持和執(zhí)行太空探索任務(wù)。而近幾年，該行業(yè)正在向網(wǎng)絡(luò)模式轉(zhuǎn)變，在這種模式下，商業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)與政府的合作至關(guān)重要。而且，我們看到越來越多的商業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)啟動了自己的任務(wù)。

特別是，低軌道任務(wù)正在被移交給商業(yè)公司。曾經(jīng)主導(dǎo)太空行業(yè)的政府太空部門，正集中精力開發(fā)更宏大的外太空探索項(xiàng)目，如NASA的火星任務(wù)。SpaceX、Blue Origin和Orbital ATK等公司的出現(xiàn)，便是受到了美國政府種子基金的刺激。這些公司幫助NASA向國際空間站運(yùn)送供給和宇航員，使得 NASA不再那么依賴俄羅斯從事類似任務(wù)。

毫無疑問，商業(yè)太空行業(yè)站在了巨人的肩膀上。比如，政府最初對技術(shù)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和人力資源的投資，如今讓商業(yè)太空公司受益匪淺。此外，政府管制雖然有時(shí)候會非常專橫，甚至?xí)臼┘蛹s束，但它的存在是有道理的。SpaceX和Orbital最近的事故均在提醒人們，太空旅行困難重重，充滿了危險(xiǎn)和不可預(yù)測性。

但驅(qū)動商業(yè)太空公司發(fā)展的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神、精力和野心，是無可替代的——商業(yè)太空公司的發(fā)展最終將帶來眾多無異于白日做夢般的太空產(chǎn)品。

Democratizing space exploration

The space exploration industry is morphing. It used to be a traditional hierarchical model where commercial entities were suppliers to state agencies that conceived of, led and carried out missions. In recent years it has been moving toward a network model where collaboration across commercial as well as state entities is crucial. And, as we are increasingly seeing, commercial entities can launch their own missions.

In particular it is the low-orbit missions that are being given over to companies. Once-dominant government space agencies are now focusing their resources on the bigger prize of deep space exploration such as NASA’s planned mission to Mars. The emergence of companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK for example has been spurred by government seed funding awarded through NASA to ferry supplies and astronauts to the International Space Station, which also reduces NASA’s reliance on Russia in this regard.

The commercial space sector stands on the shoulders of giants. There is no doubt of the debt that is due to original state investments, which developed the technology, infrastructure and human capital that is now drawn on by commercial space companies. There is also no doubt that regulation, while overbearing and constraining at times, has been there for good reason. Recent accidents such as those suffered by SpaceX and Orbital are reminders that space travel is difficult, dangerous and unpredictable.

Yet, there is no substitute for the entrepreneurial spark, energy and ambition that drives commercial space companies – and that will ultimately lead to a multitude of space-related offerings that today seem like pipe dreams.

太空探索的戰(zhàn)利品

太空行業(yè)曾經(jīng)受到嚴(yán)格管制，準(zhǔn)入門檻高，僅有幾家公司，如今這個領(lǐng)域的管制日益寬松，準(zhǔn)入門檻降低，競爭也日益激烈，而這種轉(zhuǎn)變最終將有益于整個人類。這種轉(zhuǎn)變將進(jìn)化原則（將競爭環(huán)境下的變種、選擇和保留，作為最有效的選擇獲勝者和分配資源的方式）應(yīng)用到太空行業(yè)。包括史蒂芬?霍金在內(nèi)，許多人都將太空探索視為人類生存的“人壽保險(xiǎn)”。

太空探索不僅能帶來利潤和人類生存的空間，還能振奮人類精神。沒有什么比上一輪太空競賽時(shí)的登月，更能激發(fā)全世界的想象力。太空探索順應(yīng)了人類突破邊界、探索未知領(lǐng)域的天性。正是因?yàn)檫@個原因，我們才說對太空商業(yè)化領(lǐng)域持批評和悲觀態(tài)度的人，并沒有抓住問題的關(guān)鍵。如果我們用短期的投資回報(bào)來為太空探索辯解，我們將不可能獲得沖出地球的機(jī)會。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看，商業(yè)效益會不斷積累，尤其是在解決了進(jìn)入環(huán)地軌道的火箭如何安全可靠地回收再利用這一難題之后。小行星采礦、太空旅游、更快的洲際運(yùn)輸、更高效和更廣泛的科研、娛樂與軍事應(yīng)用以及尚未出現(xiàn)的各種服務(wù)，未來都將變成可能，實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化。在這個過程中，商業(yè)公司將逐漸成為引領(lǐng)者。

本文作者洛伊佐斯?赫拉克萊厄斯為沃里克大學(xué)戰(zhàn)略專業(yè)教授。本文最初發(fā)表于The Conversation。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

審校；任文科

The spoils of space

The space industry’s shift from a tightly regulated domain with high barriers to entry and a select few competitors towards a more deregulated, easier to enter and hotly contested field is ultimately good for humanity. This shift applies evolutionary principles (variation, selection and retention within a competitive context as the most efficient way to select winners and allocate resources) to an industry that some, including Stephen Hawking, have called a “l(fā)ife insurance” for the survival of the human race.

The benefits do not just relate to profit and species survival. Space exploration feeds the human spirit. Nothing has captured the world’s imagination more than the original space race, when humans set foot on the moon. Space feeds that human propensity to push frontiers and go beyond what had previously seemed possible. It is partly for this reason that critiques and pessimism regarding the commercial viability of this industry miss the point. If we seek to justify space exploration with short-term returns on investment calculations, we will never have the green light or the opportunity to go beyond earth.

In the longer term, the commercial benefits will likely accrue, particularly when the puzzle of how to safely and reliably re-use launch rockets from Earth’s orbit is solved. Asteroid mining, space tourism, faster cross-continent earth transport, more efficient and expanded scientific, entertainment and military applications, and all sorts of services yet to emerge, will become possible and commercially viable. And business is increasingly leading the way.

LoizosHeracleous is a professor of strategy at the University of Warwick. This piece originally appeared on The Conversation.