第21屆聯合國氣候變化大會將于11月30日-12月11日在巴黎舉行。會議旨在完成2009年哥本哈根氣候大會提出的目標——達成一項抑制全球氣候變暖的協定，確保地球升溫不超過工業革命前2攝氏度。這意味著，抑制碳排放仍將成為會議的核心內容。

大會召開前夕，國際能源署(IEA)發布了一份全球能源報告，對清潔能源的未來做了一番展望。不幸的是，全球采用清潔能源的速度還不夠快，不足以避免危險的氣候變化。這些令人擔憂的發現，也將給下月即將在巴黎召開的全球氣候變化談判增添一些素材。

這份報告洋洋灑灑長達718頁，你不必親自去啃如此厚重的文字了，我們已經總結歸納了該報告的十大要點。

清潔能源將在2030年后主導電力供應：2030年之后，水力、太陽能、風能和其他可再生能源將取代煤炭，成為最大的發電來源。這一方面歸功于全球在清潔能源發電廠領域的投資，另一方面則歸功于歐美發達國家煤炭發電量的下降。到2040年，清潔能源的發電量將超出煤炭發電量13%。

該報告發現，清潔能源已經占據去年全球新增發電量的近半數。全球清潔能源部門目前共聘用了770萬名雇員，這還不包括水電領域。

中國日益增長的服務經濟對能源業影響重大：一向被譽為“世界工廠”的中國正在逐漸擺脫對制造業和重工業的依賴，轉而圍繞服務業培育更多的產業。其結果就是，中國的能源密度（即單位經濟產出的能源消耗）近年來呈現下降趨勢，這將給全球能源消費帶來重大影響。在過去20年里，中國已經將每單位未來經濟增長的能耗降低了85%。

經濟增長開始與碳排放脫鉤：多年以來，經濟發展一直與能源消費緊密相關。一般來說，大量消耗能源的國家，其經濟增長往往比較強勁。但隨著清潔能源技術的興起，少數歐洲國家已經可以在不影響經濟增長的情況下降低其碳排放水平。挪威、丹麥、芬蘭、冰島和瑞典等正是這一潮流的代表。

國際能源署發現，2014年，全球碳排放水平基本與上年持平，甚至還略有降低，而全球經濟實際上達到了一個不錯的增幅。這或許是一個異常現象，可能在近期內不會重現。但這個數據也表明，除了那些最早采用清潔能源技術的歐洲小國和富國，碳排放和經濟增長的“脫鉤”趨勢已經開始延伸到更大范圍。

印度將成為燃煤大國：未來幾十年，印度對能源的需求可以說是貪婪的，印度的能源需求增幅將冠絕全球。盡管其中部分需求可以用風能和太陽能解決，但印度終將是煤炭消費增長最多的國家。該報告還表示，到2020年，印度將成為全球最大的煤炭進口國。

化石能源行業將獲得比清潔能源行業更多的補貼：國際能源署表示，化石燃料行業2014年共獲得了4900億美元的補貼。這真是一個令人吃驚的數字，因為煤炭、石油和天然氣本來就是相對成熟的行業。相比之下，清潔能源行業在全球只獲得了1120億美元的補貼。不過，國際能源署也指出，到2040年，全球對清潔能源的補貼將增長至1700億美元。

中國主宰太陽能電池板：2014年，全球70%的太陽能電池板都是由中國大陸或臺灣地區的企業生產的。國際能源署指出，每10塊太陽能電池板就有9塊是亞洲制造的。

中印將領軍清潔能源：全球超過三分之二的清潔能源將來自中國、印度和拉美國家等發展中經濟體。這些國家的電力需求增長得極快，因此他們正在投資建設各種發電設施——不管是清潔的還是傳統的。光是中國就將占據全球清潔能源發電量增幅的四分之一以上。

到2040年，全球太陽能發電將達1萬億瓦：太陽能電池板將成為一項全球主流的清潔能源技術。到2040年，全球太陽能發電將超過1萬億瓦。相比之下，目前美國投入使用的太陽能只有220億瓦。

水電vs其他清潔能源：新的水電站大部分將被建在發展中國家，其中許多國家已經在理想的位置上建起了水壩。在目前已經投入使用的清潔能源中，水電已然占據相當大比重，但新的清潔能源投資將朝著風能、太陽能與水電混合的方向發展。其中風能將占據全球清潔能源投資的35%，太陽能將占據28%，水電將占據22%。

清潔能源的競爭力有多強？國際能源署的報告指出，如果不計算補貼的話，2014年有84%的清潔能源（不包括水電）是沒有競爭力的。到2040年，62%的清潔能源電力將仍然缺乏競爭力。換言之，到2040年，只有三分之一的清潔能源在沒有補貼的情況下還有競爭力。（財富中文網）

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譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

The International Energy Agency, an industry watchdog, released its an annual global report on Tuesday that described a future that will be heavily powered by clean energy.

But, unfortunately, the world won’t adopt cleaner quickly enough to avoid dangerous changes in the climate, the report said. The Paris-based group’s disturbing findings will add fodder to the global climate change negotiations, which kick off in Paris next month.

Despite the warning, the future of clean energy is bright, but it depends on many complicated factors. Here are some of the nuances and highlights from the 718 page report.

Clean energy will dominate electricity after 2030: Electricity from renewable sources including hydropower, solar, wind and others will replace coal as the largest source of electricity shortly after 2030. That’s thanks to both future global investment in clean energy power plants, and also a decline in coal power use in developed nations like the U.S. and in Europe. By 2040, there will be 13% more energy generated by clean power than by coal plants, the report said.

Clean energy already contributed to almost half of the world’s new power generation capacity added last year, the report found. Collectively clean energy sectors now employ 7.7 million people worldwide, not including for hydropower.

China’s growing service economy is actually a big deal for energy: China, long the world’s factory, has been working to build more industries around services instead of its historic focus on manufacturing and heavy industry. As a result, the country’s energy intensity—energy consumption per unit of economic output—has been declining over the years and that is having a major effect on global energy use. China has been able to reduce the amount of energy it consumes per unit of future economic growth by 85% over the last two decades.

Economic growth and carbon emissions are splitting up: For years, economic development has been tied to energy use. Generally, countries that use a lot of energy have a more robust economy. But with the rise of clean energy technologies, a handful of small European countries have been able to lower their carbon emissions without dampening their economic growth. Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have led this trend.

But now the IEA has found that global carbon emissions remained flat, or declined ever so slightly, in 2014, while the world’s economy actually grew at a decent pace. That is likely an anomaly, and won’t be repeated in the near future. But the data hints that the so-called “decoupling” of carbon emissions and economic growth is starting to happen on a broader scale outside of those small, wealthy early-adopter nations.

India to embrace coal: India’s demand for energy will be insatiable over the next few decades. The country will show the single largest share of growth in global energy demand. While some of that demand will be addressed by wind and solar power, India will also be the nation that adds the most coal consumption. India will become the world’s largest importer of coal by 2020, the report said.

The fossil fuel industry collects far more subsidies than clean energy sectors: The IEA says that the fossil fuel industry received $490 billion in subsidies in 2014. That’s truly shocking considering coal, oil and gas are relatively mature industries. In comparison clean power received $112 billion in global subsidies in 2014. The subsidies for clean energy will rise to $170 billion by 2040, the IEA said.

China dominates solar panels: Companies based in China and Taiwan produced 70% of the world’s solar panels in 2014. More than 9 out of 10 solar panels were made in Asia, says the IEA.

China, India will lead clean energy: More than two thirds of the increase in the world’s clean power generation will come from developing countries like China, India, and Latin America. Electricity demand is growing so rapidly in these countries that they are investing in all forms of power generation, from dirty to clean. China on its own will account for more than a quarter of the world’s increase in clean power generation.

A terrawatt of solar by 2040: Solar panels will become a key mainstream clean energy technology worldwide. By 2040, there will be more than 1,000 gigawatts (or a terrawatt) of solar installed globally. In comparison the U.S. only has about 22 gigawatts of solar in use today.

Hydropower vs. other forms of clean energy: New hydropower plants will largely be built in developing countries, many of which have already tapped most of the optimal regions for dams. Hydropower accounts for much of the clean power in use today, but new investments in clean energy will go toward a combination of wind, solar and hydropower. Wind will take 35% of the global investment for clean energy, while solar will take 28%, and hydropower 22%.

How competitive is clean energy? The IEA report found that in 2014, 84% of clean energy (not including hydropower) was uncompetitive without subsidies. By 2040, 62% of clean energy generation will still remain uncompetitive. Put another way, the report says that only one third of clean energy generation will be competitive without subsidies by 2040.