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擁抱印度互聯網,一塊正在成長的大蛋糕

擁抱印度互聯網,一塊正在成長的大蛋糕

Don Reisinger 2015年11月23日
中印龍象之爭進一步延燒至互聯網領域。最新統計顯示,印度即將超越中國,成為世界上網民人數最多的國家。

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據市場研究公司IMRB國際和印度網絡及移動通信協會(IAMAI)近期公布的一項報告,印度網民人數預計將比2014年12月增長49%,達到4.02億人。該研究顯示,至2016年年中,印度每月活躍網絡用戶數量將增長至超過4.26億人。目前,中國的網民數量超過6.5億人,依舊是網民數量最多的國家,而美國約有3億互聯網用戶。

印度網民數量增長意味著,中印之間長久的龍象之爭將進一步深入到互聯網領域。據IAMAI表示,印度互聯網用戶達到1億,用了超過10年時間,之后三年內就迅速增長到了2億,而從3億到4億僅用了一年時間。今年10月份,印度的互聯網用戶人數是3.75億,這意味著在接下來的兩個月內,印度互聯網用戶的增幅將超過2500萬。

與此同時,據中國互聯網絡信息中心公布的數據,中國2014年的新增互聯網用戶為3100萬,比2013年的5300萬有顯著減少。

印度互聯網市場里的“好消息”

印度網民的迅速增長,得益于剛剛接觸到智能手機的國民對科技與日俱增的興趣。IAMAI的報告稱,根據對印度35個城市的調查,其移動互聯網用戶在10月份同比增長65%,達到1.97億人。

該組織在一份聲明中表示:“很顯然,互聯網已經成為當今印度的主流。龐大的互聯網用戶基數,對于數字行業的總體增長絕對是一個好消息。”

報告中還稱,印度互聯網用戶中71%為男性,女性僅占29%。男性互聯網用戶增長率為50%,而女性用戶增長率為46%。可是在印度城市中,互聯網男女用戶比例為62:38。而在城市互聯網用戶中,女性增長率為39%,男性僅為28%。在印度鄉村地區,88%的互聯網用戶為男性,女性用戶增長率為61%,男性為79%。75%的鄉村互聯網用戶為18歲到30歲之間的年輕人,11%用戶是18歲以下青少年,31歲到45歲之間的中年用戶僅占8%。

此外,報告還顯示,32%的互聯網用戶是大學生,26%是年輕人。在女性互聯網用戶中,非工作女性用戶增長最快。去年,這個群體的增長率高達97%,其次為學校女生(增長率36%)以及大學女生(增長率26%)。

值得注意的是,印度城市中每天訪問互聯網的人數正在激增。2015年10月份,69%的用戶每天會使用互聯網,比去年增長9%。可是,高頻互聯網用戶并非僅限于青年人和大學生。每天使用互聯網的習慣在其他群體中也可看到,比如中年男性和非工作女性。75%的工作女性每天使用互聯網。37%的男性互聯網用戶每天使用網絡,而每天使用互聯網的女性用戶僅為23%。75%的互聯網用戶每周至少使用一次互聯網。

在印度城市地區,移動互聯網用戶同比增長99%,從去年的8000萬人增至2015年10月份的1.97億人。鄉村地區移動互聯網用戶到12月份有望達到8700萬人,到2016年6月份可達到1.09億人。

報告還指出,對印度35座城市的非互聯網用戶進行調查顯示,有1140萬人表示將于明年開始上網,其中三分之二的人想通過手機上網。

科技巨頭紛至沓來

全球最大的互聯網公司已經注意到這一趨勢。實際上,Facebook和谷歌均加大了對印度市場的開發力度。例如,谷歌迅速擴大了在印度提供的服務,并瞄準了手機用戶。本月早些時候,谷歌甚至放松了對Android One設備功能與定價的管制。Android One是谷歌專門針對印度和其他新興市場設計的網絡設備。

令人頗感意外的是,被稱為“中國版蘋果”的手機制造商小米公司,在印度投入了巨大的資源,甚至開始在印度生產手機。小米在印度發布了多款智能手機,并且計劃推出更多型號,該公司表示,印度是小米業務增長的關鍵部分。

但Facebook才是在印度市場最活躍的科技巨頭,其“開路先鋒”正是該公司的 Internet.org項目。該項目指出,目前全世界有三分之二的人依舊無法上網,而該項目的目的便是為人們提供上網的機會。憑借低成本甚至免費上網,這一項目吸引了大批印度用戶。

上個月,Facebook公司在印度舉行了一場市政廳式會議。CEO馬克?扎克伯格在講話中肆意稱贊印度的增長機遇。扎克伯格聲稱,他打算借助Internet.org項目為近10億無法上網的印度人提供網絡。他透露稱,超過1.3億印度人正在使用Facebook。

扎克伯格說道:“我們的使命是,讓全世界每一個人都有能力分享對他們重要的事情,讓每一個人都能使用網絡。印度是全世界最大的民主國家;也是最大的國家之一……要想實現這個目標,就必須幫助每一個印度人獲得上網機會,否則這個目標便只能是空中樓閣。”

聽起來非常大公無私,但事實上,對于Facebook在內的諸多科技公司而言,印度的12.5億人口代表的是一個巨大的盈利機會。

韋德布什證券公司分析師邁克爾?帕赫特告訴《財富》雜志:“印度有龐大的人口,有新興的中產階級、無數的手機用戶,而且受教育水平相對較高。未來幾年,Facebook的印度用戶將增長2億至3億人,這是非常吸引人的——印度可能成為Facebook最大的市場。”

短期難成“搖錢樹”

不過,科技公司要面臨的一個問題是,印度目前還成不了它們的“搖錢樹”。在硬件方面,為了適應消費者的價格敏感性,科技公司在印度銷售產品的時候往往要降低價格。此外,印度的政府監管一直飽受詬病。總而言之,在印度做生意并不容易。印度監管部門因保護本土公司而備受指責,比如美國拼車服務Uber在印度的主要競爭對手Ola便受到了特別照顧。

在數字方面,對于Facebook和谷歌這些依賴數字廣告收入的公司來說,印度市場的情況并不會變得更好。市場研究公司eMarketer的首席分析師黛布拉?阿霍?威廉姆斯上個月曾告訴《財富》雜志,盡管印度是Facebook僅次于美國的第二大市場,但Facebook今年在印度的廣告收入僅有1.22億美元。威廉姆斯預計,Facebook的全球廣告收入總計將達到163億美元。在整個數字廣告業方面,eMarketer認為,2015年,美國的數字廣告消費約為580億美元。而印度將達到9.4億美元。

當然,印度政府一直承諾將放松對商業的限制,這或許將有助于促進數字廣告業的增長。與此同時,隨著網民人數的增加和印度經濟的增長,科技公司將奠定一個良好的基礎,從而為所有的公司開創一個充滿希望的新機遇。(財富中文網)

作者:Don Reisinger

譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

審校:任文科

By next month, the country is expected to reach 402 million Internet users, up 49% from Dec. 2014, according to a new report published by market-research firm IMRB International and the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) on Tuesday. The research also says the number of India’s monthly active web users will grow to more than 426 million people by the middle of 2016. By comparison, at more than 650 million users, China still represents the world’s largest Internet-connected population. And for perspective, the U.S. has approximately 300 million Internet users.

But India’s growth suggests that the country may soon rival China’s web-connected population. It took India more than 10 years to reach 100 million Internet users. Then over the next three years, it quickly climbed 200 million users, said the IAMAI. The jump from 300 million users to 400 million took only a year. In October, India had 375 million Internet users, which suggests the country will add more than 25 million Internet users in the next two months.

Meanwhile, China only added 31 million new Internet users in 2014, according to the China Internet Network Information Center, a figure that was down from 53 million in 2013.

India’s growth is due to an increasingly tech-interested population that is only starting to get its hands on smart phones. The IAMAI reported that out of the 35 cities it surveyed for the study, mobile Internet usage across India was up 65% year-over-year in October, numbering 197 million people.

“Clearly, Internet is mainstream in India today,” the organization said in a statement. “And the large Internet users base is definitely a good news for the overall growth of the digital industry.”

Amid the world’s largest Internet companies have taken notice. In fact, Facebook FB 2.51% and Google GOOGL 1.88% , among countless others, have been doubling down on their efforts in India. Google, for instance, has rapidly expanded its service offerings to India and focused on the country’s mobile users. Earlier this month, the company even relaxed rules on features and pricing for Android One devices designed for India and other emerging markets.

Xiaomi, the China-based handset maker that has been called the “Apple of China,” has surprised some by dedicating significant resources—and manufacturing—to India. Xiaomi has launched several smartphones in India, has plans for more, and has said that the country is a critical component in growing its business.

But Facebook has arguably been the most aggressive India-focused company, starting with its Internet.org initiative. Designed to get two-thirds of the world’s population not currently online connected to the Internet, the initiative is attracting users in India with low- or no-cost web access.

Last month, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg held a town hall in India, where he touted the country’s growth opportunities. While much of his talk centered on Internet.org and his plans for connecting the nearly one billion Indian people who aren’t online, Zuckerberg said that more than 130 million Indian people use Facebook.

“Our mission is to give everyone in the world the power to share what’s important with them and to connect every person in the world,” Zuckerberg said. “And India is the world’s largest democracy; it’s one of the biggest countries…. If you really have a mission of connecting every person in the world, you can’t do that without helping to connect everyone in India.”

As altruistic as that may sound, the truth is, India’s 1.25 billion people presents a huge revenue opportunity for tech companies, including Facebook.

“[There are] lots of people there, an emerging middle class, tons of cell phone users, and a relatively well-educated population,” Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter told Fortune. “[Facebook] can grow by 200 to 300 million users in India over the next few years, making it pretty exciting—it could be their largest market.”

But the issue for tech companies is that India is not yet a major moneymaker. On the hardware side, companies are often forced to sell products for less in India, to accommodate consumer price sensitivity. The country has also been hobbled by regulations, making it difficult to do business there. India’s regulators have even been accused of protecting home-grown companies, like Ola, the chief competitor to U.S.-based ride-sharing service Uber.

On the digital side, things don’t look much better for Facebook or Google, which rely on digital-advertising revenue. Debra Aho Williamson, a principal analyst with eMarketer, told Fortune last month that despite India being its second-largest market behind the U.S., Facebook will generate just $122 million in ad revenue there this year. Williamson expects Facebook to generate a total of $16.3 billion worldwide in advertising revenue. Industry-wide, eMarketer also believes $58 billion will be spent on digital advertising in the U.S. in 2015. In India, that figure will top $940 million.

That said, the Indian government has committed to loosening restrictions on business, which should help boost those numbers. In the meantime, as more people come online and India’s economy improves, tech companies are laying the foundation for what looks to be a promising opportunity for all companies.

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