????11月3日，特斯拉發布第三季度財報（凈虧損為2.3億美元，與去年同期相比有所擴大——編者注）。在追隨首席執行官顛覆汽車行業的夢想道路上，特斯拉可能正在失去前進的勢頭，或許正在撞上一個轉折點。

????前通用和克萊斯勒汽車公司副董事長鮑勃·魯茨是最受尊敬的汽車業高管之一。上周，他在Road and Track網站寫道：

????“特斯拉表現出遭遇困境的各種跡象：現金流失、資產證券化、存貨堆積。對任何一家汽車廠商來說，這三件都是要命的事。只要是對特斯拉稍有關注的人，就很可能已經意識到，麻煩之日即將到來。就像世間的許多難題一樣，特斯拉的麻煩來源不止一個。”

????魯茨的警告不容小覷。他曾經領導通用汽車開發出雪佛蘭Volt電動車，還曾經擔任電池廠商Exide Technologies的首席執行官。就在魯茨發出警告之前，美國《消費者報告》雜志網站調低了特斯拉Model S車型的評級。由于小故障頻發、質量問題，再加上特斯拉應對投訴的能力不足，該網站將它對這款車型的評級從“推薦購買”降為“低于預期”。

????巴克萊銀行也在10月9日將特斯拉的評級從“中立”下調至等同于“賣出”的級別，并援引外界的擔憂稱，即將上市的Model X跨界車將“對特斯拉的利潤空間進行又一次現實考驗”。

????特斯拉沒有回應《財富》的置評請求。不過穆斯克本人在Twitter上就《消費者報告》下調評級一事作出了回應。

????他還指出，《消費者報告》也發現有97%的特斯拉車主期待該公司推出下一款新車，這證明產品的滿意率很高。

????根據第二季度的銷量和虧損來計算，特斯拉目前每賣出一輛車就要虧損約4000美元。推出新款車型還會在短期內增加成本。此外，穆斯克堅持在Model X上使用鷗翼式車門，此舉必然會提高制造的復雜程度，引發可靠性問題。這也是其他汽車廠商并未大規模使用鷗翼式車門的原因。

????對投資者而言，特斯拉一直是一只高風險、高回報的股票。冒險家們很大程度上都被穆斯克的個人魅力、企圖心和他作為顛覆者的角色——例如用公司的工作室來銷售汽車、提供售后服務，而不是傳統的經銷商——所吸引。此外，Model S酷炫的外形設計也重新定義了電動汽車該有和能有的樣子。首席執行官或超級模特開著這樣的車，不會覺得他們是待在貧民窟里，或是穿著一件寒磣的苦行僧服。

????從2010年6月29日上市那天收盤價的23.83美元，到2014年9月的高點291美元，再到現在的低于210美元，這只股票絕不是膽小或保守的投資者敢去觸碰的。它是一只“飛鳥股”。據納斯達克網站的消息，目前仍有10名分析師將這只股票評為“買入”級，另有5名分析師給出了“賣出”或“表現不佳”的評級。

????特斯拉的市值大約為270億美元。對于一家去年只賣出了31,665輛汽車，今年如果保持正軌才可能賣出5.5萬輛汽車的公司來說，這樣的價格實在太高，很難嚴肅地把特斯拉視為一個潛在的收購對象。

????魯茨警告穆斯克和投資者稱，特斯拉銷量和利潤上限恐怕低于穆斯克和特斯拉支持者的預期。為什么？因為美國的汽車業充滿了承受能力強大的對手。這是一個受到大量管制的資本密集型行業，許多經驗豐富的公司每天都在疲于應對無處不在的障礙。

????穆斯克充當了一個顛覆者的角色，而大多數人都認為這個過度成熟的行業急需顛覆，尤其是處于銷售環節的經銷商（他們的評級可能還不如國會），以及媒體（事關消費者認可度評級）。不過魯茨認為，穆斯克想要依靠公司自己的團隊來銷售汽車，完全是愚蠢之舉。他寫道：

????“你需要一幢很大的建筑來提供服務區、充電站，還得有訓練有素的銷售團隊，以及必要的財務和會計人員。這些都要消耗巨大的資金，尤其是再考慮到庫存的因素。在傳統的特許經營權的模式下，廠商從來不需要考慮這些負擔。但現在，特斯拉就得考慮。”

????特斯拉的成功之處在于將電動汽車設計得美觀時尚，令人心動。特斯拉Model S就如同阿瑪尼西裝和Kate Spade手包，而日產Leaf、福特Focus Electric等電動車，就像是平價運動品牌斯凱奇標出了Gucci的價格，同時還領著政府補貼。

????不過特斯拉正在失去優勢。隨著電池的價格下降，電動汽車的價格隨之走低，充電后的行駛里程也在變長。新款日產Leaf的外型已經得到了大幅改觀，而且每次充電的續航里程提升了30%。

????新款雪佛蘭Volt造型也更加漂亮，續航里程更長。此外，雪佛蘭還將在明年推出價格更低的Bolt EV。對特斯拉來說更不好的消息是，寶馬和奧迪也在推出更多款式的電動汽車和增程式電動汽車（擁有電動發動機和備用油箱）。在應對奢侈品買家上，這兩大品牌擁有更加豐富的經驗和更加完備的基礎設施。

????特斯拉能否如穆斯克所言，在明年能賣出超過6萬輛Model X電動汽車，以及大約3萬輛Model X跨界車，將成為對其持久力和信譽真正的考驗。否則，無論是特斯拉，還是穆斯克，這兩個品牌都將失去魔力。

????大衛·基利居住在密歇根州安阿伯市，是一名曾榮獲獎項的商業記者，也是國際汽車出版協會的名譽董事長。（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????審校：任文科

????When Tesla Motors Inc. reports third quarter earnings Tuesday, Nov. 3, it will do so in a headwind of growing skepticism around the Elon Musk-led electric car company; that it may be losing some momentum or perhaps hitting an inflection point in the CEO’s dream of disrupting the auto industry.

????Bob Lutz, former vice chairman of General Motors and Chrysler and one of the most respected auto executives walking around, wrote this week in Road and Track:

????“Tesla’s showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It’s the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company’s woes don’t have just one source.”

????That warning to Musk from Lutz, who also developed GM’s Chevy Volt and is former CEO of battery maker Exide Technologies, came on the heels of Consumer Reports dinging the Tesla Model S. Consumer Reports lowered its rating from “recommended” to “worse than expected” based on glitches, build quality issues and Tesla’s ability to cope with complaints.

????Barclays also on Oct. 9 downgraded Tesla to the equivalent of a sell rating from “Neutral,” citing concern that the forthcoming Model X crossover will “provide yet another reality check on margins.”

????Tesla didn’t respond to Fortune’s request for comment. But Musk responded to the Consumer Reports downgrade via Twitter.

????He also noted that Consumer Reports had found that 97% of Tesla owners expect their next car to be from the company, which suggests a high satisfaction rate.

????Currently, Tesla loses about $4,000 per vehicle it sells based on second quarter sales volume and losses. And launching a new model increases costs in the short term. Plus, Musk’s insistence on putting gull-wing doors on the Model X is bound to create manufacturing complexity and reliability issues. There is a reason why gullwings don’t make it into mass production at other car companies.

????Tesla has been a high-risk, high-reward stock for investors. The risk takers have been largely drawn to Musk’s power of personality, his intent and role as a disruptor, preferring, for example, to bypass traditional car dealers in favor of company-owned studios to sell and service the cars. Too, the sexy design of the Model S has redefined what an electric car should and could look like—a set of exhaust-free wheels that a CEO or super model could see themselves driving without feeling like they are slumming or wearing the automotive equivalent of a hair-shirt.

????From its close on opening day of trading June 29 2010 at $23.83 to its high of $291 reached in September 2014 to where it is trading now, below $210, the stock has not been for the faint of heart or the conservative investor. It’s a “flyer stock.” There are still ten analysts following the stock with a “buy” rating, versus five with a “sell,” or “underperform,” according to NASDAQ.com.

????Tesla’s street value is roughly $27 billion. For a company that sold 31,665 vehicles last year, and might hit 55,000 this year if manages to stay on track, that is too much money to seriously consider Tesla a takeover target.

????Lutz’s warnings to Musk, and to investors, is that Tesla could have a lower ceiling for sales and profits than Musk and Tesla boosters think. Why? Because selling automobiles in the U.S. is not for the faint of heart. It is a very capital intensive, regulation intensive business fraught with obstacles that more experienced firms cope with every day.

????Musk is a disruptor operating in an industry most people think is over-ripe for disruption, especially in the selling process through dealers who may well rank lower than Congress and the media when it comes to consumer approval ratings. But Lutz believes Musk’s desire for company-owned facilities is a fool’s errand. As he writes,

????“You need a big building with service bays, chargers, and a trained sales force, plus all the necessary finance and accounting people. It ties up a staggering amount of capital, especially when you factor in inventory. Under a traditional franchise arrangement, the factory never has to carry that burden. Right now, Tesla does.”

????Where Tesla has succeeded is in making electric cars truly aspirational and beautiful from a styling standpoint. The Tesla Model S is an Armani suit or Kate Spade bag, while the Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric and their like are Sketchers at Gucci prices with government subsidies.

????But the Tesla advantages could be eroding. The prices of electric vehicles are coming down as batteries become cheaper, and range is expanding. Already, the new Nissan Leaf redesign is much better looking than the original, and the range on a single charge is increasing 30%.

????The new Chevy Volt is sleeker with a longer electric range than the original, and Chevy is launching a cheaper Bolt EV next year. Worse for Tesla are the growing offerings of EV and extended-range electric (which run on electric motors with back up gas tanks)from BMW and Audi, who have far more experience and infrastructure in handling luxury buyers.

????If Musk can stay on track to sell more than 60,000 Model X EVs next year, and add some 30,000 Model X crossovers next year, as he’s stated he will, it will be a true test of Tesla’s staying power and credibility. If it goes badly, though, the electricity in both the Tesla and Musk brand will certainly dim.

????David Kiley, based in Ann Arbor, MI, is an award-winning business journalist and President Emeritus of the International Motor Press Association.