????百勝餐飲集團計劃分拆其步履蹣跚的中國業(yè)務(wù)。這種做法是否會引領(lǐng)一種趨勢，或者，它只是迫于幾位關(guān)心短期收益的激進投資者的壓力而作出的一次性決定？

????要回答這個問題，我們必須考慮百勝在中國的地位，以及通過將中國業(yè)務(wù)單獨上市，這家公司可以獲得怎樣的回報。中國業(yè)務(wù)占百勝餐飲年收入的一半以上，去年差不多為公司貢獻了半數(shù)營業(yè)利潤。

????先來談?wù)劙賱賹@得怎樣的回報：今年早些時候，卡爾·伊坎的門徒，激進投資者基斯·梅斯特與著名的對沖基金活動家丹尼爾·勒布，幾乎同時購買了百勝餐飲的股票。梅斯特表示，分拆可使百勝股價上漲16美元。梅斯特對路透社表示：“分拆兩項業(yè)務(wù)將給股東提供一種選擇，獲得一種類似于增長型年金保險的特許經(jīng)營權(quán)現(xiàn)金流，以及在一個消費群體日益增長的國家領(lǐng)先的餐飲理念。”過去兩年來，百勝的中國業(yè)務(wù)一直陷于困境，并被視為百勝餐飲股價低迷的主要原因。按照梅斯特的思路，分拆中國業(yè)務(wù)之后，投資者將給予該公司其他業(yè)務(wù)更高的估值。

????盡管高盛分析師對于此次分拆能夠釋放價值持持懷疑態(tài)度，但交易員們似乎站在了梅斯特一邊，分拆計劃發(fā)布后，百勝股價上漲近2%。

????其次需要指出的是，百勝餐飲在中國已經(jīng)不復往日輝煌。

????百勝的銷售收入在過去兩年停滯不前，這幾乎完全是咎由自取。去年，食品供應(yīng)商福喜集團被指控向麥當勞、肯德基、星巴克和其他在中國的西方連鎖企業(yè)供應(yīng)過期肉。此次食品丑聞令中國的肯德基和必勝客（百勝旗下的塔可鐘尚未進入中國）遭到沉重打擊。在此次丑聞當中，作為中國最大的外國快餐連鎖，肯德基備受指責——并不冤枉。咨詢公司Collective Responsibility 的創(chuàng)始人、上海中歐國際工商學院可持續(xù)發(fā)展客座教授理查德·布魯貝克當時向筆者表示，百勝餐飲在中國有1000多家肉類供應(yīng)商。眾所周知，中國的食品安全檢驗效率低下。布魯貝克批評百勝餐飲和其他西方連鎖企業(yè)，未能保證其供應(yīng)商遵守規(guī)定。他表示：“如果你知道政府難以有效履行監(jiān)管之責，企業(yè)應(yīng)該自己進行監(jiān)管。”丑聞爆發(fā)之后，百勝餐飲不再使用福喜集團供應(yīng)的原料，并在一份聲明中表示：“我們絕對不能容忍供應(yīng)商違反政府法律法規(guī)的行為。”

????事實上，這并非肯德基第一次在國外市場遭遇棘手的情況。例如，在南非，肯德基在消費者提出要求之后，才使用自由放養(yǎng)的雞。

????百勝中國最近還宣布了CEO蘇敬軾退休之后的接替人選。蘇敬軾將肯德基發(fā)展成中國最大的西方連鎖餐廳。北京的咨詢師認為他是中國最好的經(jīng)理人。

????因此，我們完全可以認為，百勝餐飲在中國已經(jīng)不復往日的光彩。《華爾街日報》表示，在2003年，曾有一位高管形容中國“對我們來說絕對是一座金礦。”

????但許多公司的在華業(yè)務(wù)都受到了中國經(jīng)濟下行周期的影響。例如，作為耐克最大的成長市場，中國市場通常為該公司創(chuàng)造大約10%的收入。但在2013年，耐克卻在中國經(jīng)歷了糟糕的一年，因產(chǎn)品款式陳舊，庫存大量積壓。近兩年的大部分時間，耐克在中國的銷售情況都沒有好轉(zhuǎn)，在最熱銷的地區(qū)曾經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過連續(xù)三個季度銷售額負增長的局面。后來，耐克修改了產(chǎn)品款式，大中華區(qū)又重新成為各大區(qū)域中增長最快的市場。

????耐克與百勝的區(qū)別在于，快餐業(yè)本質(zhì)上是一種特許經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)，也正是由于這個原因，我們才認為百勝餐飲的分拆決定并不代表一種趨勢，而只是一家公司的特殊情況。在美國，麥當勞、肯德基、塔可鐘和其他快餐公司，并沒有把資金投入到成千上萬家餐廳當中，而是采用收取特許經(jīng)營權(quán)使用費的方式。百勝此次分拆也是基于同樣的理念：整個百勝中國業(yè)務(wù)仍將按照某種大型特許經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)的模式運行。也就是說，百勝餐飲的主要收入源泉仍然是特許經(jīng)營權(quán)使用費，盡管該公司并未公布具體數(shù)字。

????分拆之后，百勝餐飲的股東們或許不需要承擔中國市場的風險，但如果中國業(yè)務(wù)能恢復元氣，他們從中國業(yè)務(wù)獲得的好處也將減少。肯德基用超過一年時間改進中國餐廳，盡管肯德基不再像上世紀90年代那樣令人興奮，但中國中產(chǎn)階層依舊將它視為不錯的用餐場所。

????這就是西方公司不太可能效仿百勝分拆計劃的一個原因。另一個原因是，盡管大眾汽車、通用汽車和蘋果等公司的中國業(yè)務(wù)也占其總收入的很大一部分，但不同于百勝餐飲，這些企業(yè)并沒有獨立運營的中國公司。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????Is Yum Brands’ planned spin-off of its stumbling China business the beginning of a trend, or a one-off move by a company under pressure from a couple activist investors concerned with short-term gains?

????To answer the question, you have to consider the position that Yum is in, and what it is getting in return for listing its China business–a business responsible for over half its annual revenues and, last year, almost half its operating profit.

????First, what it is getting in return: One of the activist investors, Keith Meister, a Carl Icahn protégé who bought shares earlier this year around the same time as noted hedge fund activist Daniel Loeb, says the spinoff could boost Yum’s stock price by $16 a share. “The separation of these two businesses gives shareholders the choice to own a growing annuity-like franchise cash flow stream, as well as the leading restaurant concept in a country with the fastest-growing consumer class,” Meister told Reuters. The China business has been struggling over the past couple years and been seen as weighing down Yum’s share price. Slice off the China business, Meister’s thinking goes, and investors value the rest of the business higher.

????Nevermind that analysts from Goldman Sachs are skeptical that the deal unlocks any value. Traders seemed to be on Meister’s side yesterday, sending the stock up almost 2% on the spinoff news.

????Second: What is Yum’s position in China? Not as strong as it used to be.

????Sales have stagnated the last two years for reasons almost entirely the fault of Yum. KFC and Pizza Hut locations in China (Taco Bell isn’t in the country) were hit last year by a food safety scandal after food supplier OSI Group was accused of sending expired meat to McDonalds, KFC, Starbucks, and other Western chains in China. Being the largest foreign fast food chain China, KFC received a lot of heat in the coverage of the scandal, and deservedly so. At the time, Richard Brubaker, founder of consultancy Collective Responsibility and adjunct professor of sustainability at the China-Europe International Business School in Shanghai, told me that Yum had more than 1,000 meat suppliers in the country. China’s food safety inspections are notoriously weak, so Brubaker blamed Yum and others for not ensuring their suppliers were following the rules. “If you know the government is not up to par, it’s on you,” he told me. After the scandal broke, Yum stopped using the supplier and said in a statement, “We will not tolerate any violations of government laws and regulations from our suppliers.”

????It’s not as if KFC didn’t have experience in tough foreign markets: In South Africa, for instance, KFC only uses free-range chickens after customers demanded it.

????The Yum China business also recently replaced a retiring executive, Sam Su, who built KFC into the biggest Western chain in China. Consultants in Beijing consider Su the country’s best executive.

????So it’s fair to say Yum has lost some of its sparkle in China, a place an executive called “an absolute gold mine for us” in 2003, the WSJ notes.

????But down cycles hit any business operating anywhere. Nike, for instance, which earns 10% of revenues in China and counts the country as its biggest growth market, went through a terrible stretch in 2013 when huge inventory surpluses resulted from stale styles. Sales didn’t rise for the better part of two years, including a three-quarter stretch of negative sales growth in its hottest region. Nike revamped its styles, and now the Greater China market is back to posting the top growth among its biggest regions.

????The difference between Nike and Yum, and the reason Yum’s announced spinoff is less a trend than company-specific, is that fast food is at its heart a franchise business. Instead of sinking capital into tens of thousands of stores, McDonalds, KFC, Taco Bell and others charge franchise royalties in the U.S. The same concept is behind the spinoff: The entire Yum China business will still function as a kind of massive franchise, sending an as-yet-unannounced royalty back to Yum.

????After a spinoff, Yum stockholders may not experience the risks of China’s market, but they’re also less leveraged to the China business’s comeback, should it happen. KFC has spent more than a year improving its restaurants in China, which are still considered nice places to eat, if not as exciting as they were in the 1990s, by middle-class Chinese.

????That’s one reason Western companies are unlikely to follow Yum’s decision. Another is that Volkswagen, General Motors, and Apple, which receive a large portion of their revenues from China operations, don’t have China operations that can function as separate companies like Yum’s can.